Altitude Share Discussion Threads

[robbnw] 13/6/2018 18:08

Anyone any idea why the jump?

[mannymif] 13/6/2018 16:42

Surely finncap must move their target price from 105p sometime very soon.

[qs99] 13/6/2018 16:26

wow, some jump!

[northwards] 13/6/2018 16:02

Something afoot ?

[urigem] 13/6/2018 14:09

Ali I buy shares for different reasons, I follow over 40 at the moment hold 8 but don't hold many long term my fav are N4P - Management Quality and founder a big holder and BOD although I bought at 16p and holds a lot upside value, but far from a sure thing.BPC - again this was a value punt but at much lower levels than it is now, but committed management more relying on luck with that, but on a big free ride nowBoth have strong management, but are very high risk prospects.Cheers

[ali47fish] 13/6/2018 09:32

Urigem you are a breath of fresh air- i tried to look at your other posts/threads to see what other companies you are invested in- only alt comes up? would you be willing to say which other companies if any?

[northwards] 13/6/2018 07:37

Urigem, spot on and that's my view.I'm hoping the AGM will update on June's revenue - and from that we can get a clearer sense of momentum.

[urigem] 13/6/2018 07:32

Wouldn't say they are against , just putting on the radar for others to look. Its not a complete punt far from it.. Complete punt back in june last year.. then two contracts signed.. still a punt as not much known.. then more details of the revenue model.. very high risk...then onboarding starts..ok at least this is going forward.. Then you are to get some pretty impressive figures... can see the revenue model.. can see the AIM promotes trade between members.. Can see the AiM Membership is growing rapidly.. can see that the software is being adopted (initially at least) Can see that the company is beating forecast for onboarding by multiples.. No longer a punt.. but an educated investment in a high growth high risk venture.

you dont make money finding companies After everyone else has done the hard work researched them

[john09] 13/6/2018 00:59

It’s always annoyIng when Stockopedia are against you. They have their own agendas. Their comment about click rates on email is a pretty lame thing to hone in on in such a short article isn’t it.

[mauricemonkey] 12/6/2018 23:49

They (Paul and Graham) cover hundreds of stocks, it’s not reasonable to expect them to understand the technicalities of every business. They don’t see much worth investigating so haven’t bothered. Those on here think they know different and hope they will be rewarded.
There is no proof of execution, yet, it’s a complete punt.

[urigem] 12/6/2018 22:28

I think that is a fair look based on purley previous numbers I would agree - but not the product. They have not looked at it at all. AIMPRO "I think its their website"

[stephen1946] 12/6/2018 22:15

allstar, personally, i dont see a drop. Even stockopedia, who in their own words are honestly sceptical display a belief that this just might deliver and if it does it could be huge. Like others though, stockopedia confess to having no knowledge of the various systems, so will wait and see. That`s fair enough for me.

Difficult to assess a business across the pond, that`s the problem from where i sit, therefore, honestly, Stockopedia reserve judgement, to a large extent.

[allstar4eva] 12/6/2018 20:48

Yes it is speculative. You can easily lose all of your money here or you could make many multiples. If this is going to £10+ does it really matter that much paying 85p or 55p?If it goes to £0 you lose your cash regardless of the buy price.They have agreements in place, experienced staff, end users using their system and the market has attributed a value to this - either you pay the current price or hope for a drop. I don't see the big deal.

[urigem] 12/6/2018 20:47

Stephen Ok - I took that very differently - out of context could seem sarcastic is suppose, but not the way I read it I see it that they understand that Internet aggregators command very impressive PE /revenue ratios hence the comparison to Just Eat. They mention that the mid size success of AIMPRO on its own would give a revenue not far short of what just eat had when it floated inUS at 1.5 billion. PE of 55 Not there yet by a long shot, but I get the point. I'll have a re read, but that's the way I took itCheers

[bpc10] 12/6/2018 19:10

Came across this from Stockopedia following last weeks rns:Altitude (LON:ALT)Share price: 94p (+19%)No. of shares: 53 millionMarket cap: £50 millionFinal ResultsBefore I get into these results, bear in mind that they relate to the year ending December 2017. Very late.Paul covered it last year, at the 2016 results, and called it "a complete punt".It had a placing back then, for £2.5 million, and raised another £1.5 million this year.The dilution hasn't been too awful - share count is up by 24% over the past five years.Description of the company's technology services:Altitude Group plc provide [sic] leading technology services, specialising in cloud and server based software that is catered to companies of any size and expertise. Whether you would like an end to end business management system to suit you [sic] company or access to product data from the industry's most comprehensive sourcing portal, you're in the right place.The key focus for Altitude is something called the "AIMPro Tech Suite". I think this is its website. It serves US distributors (members of the "AIM Group") and as such, Altitude's new CEO will be US-based.Altitude's e-commerce platform can be viewed at this link.ResultsExcluding the effects of an acquisition, revenues fell in 2017, from £4.3 million to £4 million.The Chairman says he is pleased that PBT increased by 71.8% in 2017, but the increase was merely from £73k to £125k.I'm not sure about how impressive this is:AIMPro was formally launched to 200 attending AIM members at the national PPAI trade show in Las Vegas in January 2018 to an immediately positive reception. Indeed we are carefully managing demand within our current resources, as any marketing to the AIM members and suppliers prompts immediate response and excitement. Marketing email opening rates of 38.5% (industry average 14.2%), a click through rate of 8.9% (industry average 1.6%) and web site visits to the AIM info site doubled in May illustrating their enthusiasm for engagement. My own mailing list is fairly small, but it's not very far from being the same size as the AIM Group membership. And my open rates are a lot higher than 38.5%!The industry average open rates and click rates are more typical when you have mailing lists of commercial size, rather than tiny lists with less than 2,000 members. I also find it a bit odd that investors should care very much that prospective clients are opening emails from Altitude.Having said that, the opening levels of activity on AIMPro do seem encouraging:More than 1.4 million items have been ordered through the platform on over 2,200 individual sales orders from the first 57 AIMPro members with total throughput of $2.8 million to date. 65% of active users have used the platform to place multiple orders.I wonder how much revenue for Altitude is generated by $2.8 million of sales throughput on its platform? These are very early days.Cash flow generation was ok, I'm happy to add back in the amortisation of intangible assets and depreciation so operating cash flow was somewhere around £550k for the period (from pre-existing publications and exhibitions businesses, plus six months of the new acquisition).Conclusion: This is too early-stage for me. There are a few interesting things happening with it, but I don't see how it is worth more than its net book value or a modest earnings multiple, based on achievements to date.It is trading at 5x 2018 forecast sales, and the StockRanks duly categorise it as Highly Speculative. As always, I'm happy to listen to arguments to the contrary

[stephen1946] 12/6/2018 18:41

I am not suggesting the company Broker should, "RAMP ANYTHING" what i object to is the wording contained in the post 5356.

"We look forward to Marvelling at the multiples derived from US enthusiasm, and the resulting positive inferences for Altitudes valuation as it delivers proof of execution".

I stand by my description of that statement, it is sceptical and doubting.

[urigem] 12/6/2018 18:22

Summary at April.. Very positive, as they say "compelling" their 2019 base is case is very low as stated below.

Investment in the original Channl proposition has been redirected towards ChannlPro, where the logic of endorsed partner-focused ‘on-boarding’ and encouraging utilisation amongst receptive members is compelling. The potential revenue (a percentage of total gross transactional revenue) is significant, even at levels substantially lower than the nirvana of 100% of transacted throughput revenue from 100% of AIM members at 5% GTR (for AIM that would equate to $65m per annum). We assume a share of GTR of sub 4%, for 30% of members, passing 25% (rising to 40%) of their revenue over the platform, and look forward to the development of trends.

NAPCO, an audience of primarily commercial print focus promotional media distributors, has entered a two-year agreement for deployment of the platform. While c.12,500 of the 80,000 potential distributors have already made in-roads in to the broader promotional products environment and now have online potential through ChannlPro, ChannlPro gives the NAPCO audience the opportunity to extend their portfolio into virgin territory and gain an immediate online presence with associated CRM / order management.

Having reviewed prospects for andeverything.com and Channl, they retain unmodelled upside to group potential, with the current investment focus on ChannlPro through its partner-based marketing channel. Forecasts are amended to show an enhanced focus on on-boarding ChannlPro customers after the successful reception amongst AIM members and at the PPAI show in Las Vegas. While we downgrade 2018 forecasts to account for the refocus, we show significant potential growth in 2019 once momentum from on-boarding builds.

Given the remarkable upside, we look forward to reviewing our 105p target price with proof of execution. Forecasts in this note assume placing completion.

[urigem] 12/6/2018 18:14

Maurice

Yes jan- dec 19, that's next year. This year is already 6 months through and AIMPRO Just launched, Broker forecast is about £30million transaction rev over the next 6 months, so only £3mil max revenue, but there will be a lot of upfront investment in onboarding and training. However, next years fc are conservative and so far ALT are way ahead of the current forecast for this point, a point the broker observes

Stephen

I don't quite understand, I don't see the broker reports as negative at all. Very positive and factual, a broker shouldn't ramp away.. Have missed some history?

[mauricemonkey] 12/6/2018 17:13

By next year, you mean 1 Jan 2019 - 31st Dec 2019, iethe results to be announced in June 2020 right, or do you mean eps 1 Jan 2018 - 31st Dec 2018 will be 9.5p?

[stephen1946] 12/6/2018 16:40

Views from a broker who is in any way a sceptic should not be published, the broker under those terms is backing both scenario`s, Win or Lose. In my view, this explain`s the lack lustre response from the Market generally, if the broker doubts the claims and more importantly, the figures so far, how on earth can complete strangers to the concept accept the forecast`s?

I am very annoyed at the comments made by the broker and a full explanation should be given at the, AGM, to the shareholder`s by the broker, followed by an abject apology.

[stephen1946] 12/6/2018 15:59

It would appear the M/M`s fear`s were unfounded.

Got to say, i am not happy with Brokers flippant remarks about, "Marvelling at the growth figures etc etc" It appears to suggest that the forecast`s are in some way far too ambitious. Hardly a comment from a believer, more a `SCEPTIC'

[trinko] 12/6/2018 11:19

I'm(85p) in lets see. With more good news I will buy more.

[urigem] 12/6/2018 10:48

TrinkoGoogle research tree Altitude and it will take you there, but need to subscribe on free trial to read it. I have posted the key points earlier in the Thread