Alphawave Ip Share Discussion Threads

[gregmorg] 01/9/2021 16:32

Have wondered whether end of the month valuations had something to do with the last weeks determined drive down in the share price suited the shorters that’s for sure!

[74tom] 01/9/2021 16:06

@bookish, Naya = Naya Capital Management, one of the two companies that have opened shorts against AWE...

[scepticalinvestor] 01/9/2021 12:25

edging up nicely. The proof of turn will be in the late afternoon after the yanks open

[bookish] 01/9/2021 11:56

74tom -- Who are or what does NAYA stand for please and TIA ??

EDIT -- cancel that request thank you !!

[scepticalinvestor] 01/9/2021 10:13

Yes these shorts are trying very hard now. Above 450 was childs play. At these levels they risk rather large losses imo. I have already added quite a lrge amt in the last few days but like you, will buy more under / around the 300p range.

[74tom] 01/9/2021 10:04

Exactly, one of the positives of holding shares here is that a secondary NASDAQ listing is very likely at some point. I note that the share price dared to breach 330p and was hit with a barrage of AT selling... laughable.

[scepticalinvestor] 01/9/2021 07:14

Yes all good points. Not much the company can do now until results day i guess, so the share price will likely dwindle below 300p. What is interesting is that the 410 IPO price was around the middle of the recommended range! They should have listed on NASDAQ where the share price would prob be multiples of the current.

[74tom] 31/8/2021 22:02

I think the volatility stems from the fact that the free float is very small making the share illiquid & that AWE is a relatively unknown quantity at present. It's also been as a result of the scenario that's played out;

- IPO mis sold to wrong II's = weak opening and 20% opening drop
- Carmignac take advantage to open a 1.2% short, driving the price down to £2.90
- Positive trading update stops them in their tracks, they stop shorting
- Share price starts to rapidly recover back towards IPO level
- Naya then begin to short, this doesn't work until mid Aug when volumes drop as the share price tops out at £4.70
- Lack of liquidity + a lot of shares sold short causes a sharp fall in the price, Naya never let it recover
- We now find ourselves back in a similar position to early June, nearly 25% below the IPO price, however this time we know the interims are close...

I certainly didn't think we'd get a second chance to buy below £3 but that's looking likely at present, I'll be filling my boots if it happens...

[scepticalinvestor] 31/8/2021 18:53

May I ask what your opinion is of the volatility? 95% + margins is unbelievable and yet here we are

[74tom] 31/8/2021 17:59

I wouldn't get too hung up on royalties cordwainer, this is from the IPO prospectus;

"While a design win typically results in a licence fee and non-recurring engineering (“NRE”) revenue that is paid by the customer, a large part of future revenue at the Group may be based on product royalties. These royalties typically do not begin until the customer has completed the design, manufacturing and testing of its end-product and then commenced shipping its product in high volumes. In most cases, this is at least 18 to 24 months from the time of the original design win and entry into a licence agreement. As a result, the Group’s revenue from a particular design win may generally, over the longer term, be significantly dependent on the customer’s utilisation of the specific IP solution, which depends on a number of factors outside the Group’s control, including demand for the customer’s end-product."

So actual royalties recognised in the accounts will carry far more weight than estimates, particularly as it'll be up to 2 years before the royalties 'estimated' in H121 are recognised!

And yes I have L2 @Sceptical, useless on days like today though when the share price was rising & falling for no apparent reason...

[cordwainer] 31/8/2021 17:14

Might get a triple-digit pe ratio for this year but with the Barclays note (released a week after the trading update in June) suggesting a CAGR of 60-70% its investable as long as the assumptions about sector growth and market share hold true. The worry here is that Q2 royalties appeared to be flat compared with Q1, except I'm not sure that Q2 was entirely wrapped up and accounted for at the time of the last trading update ?

[scepticalinvestor] 31/8/2021 16:50

Do you have L2?

[74tom] 31/8/2021 16:37

UT at 316, it got down to 303 at one stage of the auction, so I suspect we may get a bite under 300p tomorrow morning...

[scepticalinvestor] 31/8/2021 15:35

unbelievable

[74tom] 31/8/2021 14:44

26% upside back to the placing price and 44% to the high hit only 14 trading days ago. This is surely an opportunity given they've already flagged that H1 was excellent and the industry as a whole is flying. It's illiquid and unknown compared to the other recent IPO's, however financially it's better than all of them IMO.

[scepticalinvestor] 31/8/2021 13:55

Likewise! I think they have just seen and taken the opp. Doubt there is anything less than excellent results

[scepticalinvestor] 31/8/2021 13:51

Well helped myself to more now. Crikey how this has fallen..Might hit 300 again but with interims so close, am happy to keep holding.

[gregmorg] 31/8/2021 13:51

Well , judging from the ever falling share price some people think they know that all is not well here!
So whatever very decent news the trading update gave us a few weeks /a while ago others have a very different view. Quite surprised at this persistent downward share price pressure but we will soon find out I guess.

[scepticalinvestor] 27/8/2021 10:14

Makes no sense selling now - 3 weeks and we have the interims

[scepticalinvestor] 26/8/2021 16:51

74tom yes, agree. However the 250k trade was an O trade, not AT. It was not off book in otherwords.

[74tom] 26/8/2021 16:38

AT trades are made directly on the L2 order book so there are always going to execute at a different bid price to regular 'O' trades that we place through a broker. I see they couldn't possibly let us have an up day! Roll on September for results

[scepticalinvestor] 26/8/2021 14:54

250k share trade at 340 gone through which advfn is showing as a sell - i am lucky to get 332 when i dummy sell 25000 shares! anyone have L2?

[andyview] 26/8/2021 14:47

Not thats the spread I got when I tried it, so yess 3.39 to sell

[scepticalinvestor] 26/8/2021 14:44

Not for selling? highest dummy sell for only 5000 stock is 339.

[andyview] 26/8/2021 14:34

I get 3.38 - 3.44

With regards to the shorts could it be some sort of position offset with a hedge in the futures/option market?

NAya will be sitting in the money as the sold it all the way up but have added little since it stabilised

However Carmignac must be sitting in a significant loss due to their timing...

If the positions are to be believed of course.

For me we seem to have turned a corner and I'm thinking recovery from here...

bwtfdik

gla