Alpha UK Multi Share Discussion Threads

[toback] 24/8/2012 10:02

I think the problem with winding up - people would see this as a forced sale and asset values drop substantially.

Essentially the same scenario as if they do not get the borrowings.

But as they say they have 3 offers - one which has credit committee approval - plus exploring others. So worst case is looking better -I hope they announce as they get credit committee approval for the others. That will see an uplift.

305p of nav at the amount and improving operational performance. Banks have too much to lose I would have thought to throw in the towel.

[lavagrouch] 24/8/2012 09:43

Thanks for that. With the share price such a discount to NAV i would have thought winding up would have been a popular choice - or i am i being naive & missing something here?

Good to know i'm not the only one following this share!

[toback] 24/8/2012 09:09

As I understand it the "Company is a closed-ended Isle of Man registered investment company which has been declared under the relevant legislation to be an Authorised Closed-Ended Collective Investment Scheme".

I think we have gone past the original date proposed for winding up and therefore shareholders have to vote every year to keep it going. I think from memory it happened last year.

[lavagrouch] 24/8/2012 01:25

i am curious about note 21

'An incentive arrangement will come into effect either upon the Shareholders voting to continue or wind up the Group at a meeting of the Company to be held on or after 30 June 2013. At that time if the annual rate of return has been 15% or more for the period from 10 August 2010 until 30 June 2013, then the Investment Adviser and Manager will be entitled to 20% of the excess above that target level of return.'

I had not realised there was the potential for AUMP to be wound up next year. Can anybody shed any light on this?

[toback] 23/8/2012 16:55

Solid progress on operational front front today's result.

Refinancing progressing though a capital shortfall that they are trying to fill with mezzanine finance.

Looking much more likely to be a success.

In which case at a tenth of nav should see the price multibag from here by the year end - as they are priced to go bust.

[toback] 10/5/2012 13:47

This is a very good IMS today.

Trading at almost one tenth NAV. Increased lettings should drive cash.

Other borrowers interested in re-financing. Would be good to get this cleared well before OCtober.


Then see the price take-off.

[craffert] 03/4/2012 21:24

worst case scenario is debt for equity swap or massive placing if no debt available....both scenarios would wipe out existing equity value. the joys of needing debt

[bubble pricker] 28/3/2012 14:04

Not sure you can calculate that. If there is no refinancing, BoS will presumably foreclose the loan and firesale the properties. BoS will not care at what price the properties sell, as long as they get their money. With the massive discount to NAV, one might think that even in the event of a firesale there would be equity left exceeding the current share price, but you never know.

[lavagrouch] 28/3/2012 13:41

Anybody calculated worst case scenario in the event finance can't be refinanced with BoS?

[bubble pricker] 09/3/2012 14:45

The need to refinance the debt this year is what is holding the share price back. Massive upside if the debt can be refinanced.

[toback] 09/3/2012 14:23

So NAV 311 at year end and will go up slightly with closure of CHIP6.

Total borrowing down again.

Vacancy levels got worse but will get better once CHIP 6 out of the way.

However most of debt needs to be re-financed before end of the year (and BoS is deleveraging!!).

So some risks but massive upside from here too.

[toback] 01/3/2012 14:41

Definitely good news so we have a clean NAV of over £3 and the running sore removed.

[bubble pricker] 01/3/2012 12:46

So AUMP will liquidate the office SPVs. I think this is good news. The impact on NAV will be minimal (about 3p), and it will remove a black mark on the finances (covenant breaches). It is great for AUMP that these distressed assets are in SPVs and the rest of the portfolio remains unaffected. Fundamental numbers will improve as a result of the liquidation.

[toback] 20/2/2012 17:35

I expect that this could hit £1.20 with a half decent update.

[red army] 20/2/2012 16:19

The MM'S now want 70p for a small amount of stock with a price showing of 60p
They are curently short of stock

[bubble pricker] 17/2/2012 18:35

I wasn't suggesting a liquidation at firesale prices. But it seems to me that if the discount remains this ridiculous, an option would be to de-list the company (saves costs) go into voluntary liquidation, and then spend about 12-18 months seeling the portfolio, returning about £3 to shareholders. That would be a near 6-bagger at the current share price

[toback] 16/2/2012 10:40

I guess we won't get divis for a while - and I suspect that liquidating the portfolio would only generate firesale prices - but perhaps they could do a partial liquidation and return even £1 of value.

Then manage the rest of the portfolio more aggressively - if they sold the portfolio at a 30% discount that would still be over £2.

[bubble pricker] 16/2/2012 09:58

The key is dividends need to resume at one point and at the moment there seems little prospect of that as along as they are having to repay debt to remedy the covenant breaches,

That said the discount remains staggering and perhaps the best option for shareholders would be to liquidate the portfolio, pay off the debt and distribute 300p or so per share.

[toback] 16/2/2012 09:09

Unless I am much mistaken some activity here this week and a strong month overall. If it gets above 60p soon should see a swiftish bounce to the £1 level.

[toback] 14/2/2012 14:28

Next NAV to be published at end of March too.

[toback] 14/2/2012 14:28

Was just reviewing where this is and looked again at the IMS. Highlights for me:

The Company's Net Asset Value per Ordinary Share was 305 pence as at 30 September 2011.

Occupancy across the portfolio has decreased marginally with void levels, based on the estimated rental value, standing at 24.4% at 1 October 2011 (reducing to 23.0% should completion occur for all lettings currently under offer). During the quarter to 30 September 2011, the Company reduced borrowings by a further £0.3 million. An additional repayment of £0.2 million was made in October 2011 bringing total debt repayments in the year to date to £1.9 million

There is of course the loan breach with Nationwide however from the IMS the associated contribution to the Company's overall NAV is only 0.2%. CHIP (Six) Limited's borrowings are not cross collateralised with any Group borrowings or subject to any Group guarantees. Which means it is really Nationwide's problem.

For balance they did talk about increasing insolvencies but at the time they were more than mitigating this. There is also overall quality of the portfolio - not being prime but again the discount more than offsets this.

All for 50 odd pence. Ho Hum

[toback] 07/11/2011 11:23

Think it is just the debt markets - no guarantee to rollover debts

Though they are coming down and performing reasonably in this market.

Big problem tho if recession happens again as they as not premier sites

[opener] 07/10/2011 08:38

Big discount to NAV,but gearing and no dividend the problem here.