Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Alpha Pyrenees LSE:ALPH London Ordinary Share GB00B0P6FY18 ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 0.015p 0 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.01p 0.02p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment & Services 0.41 -12.39 -10.50 0.0

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Date Time Title Posts
25/7/201809:52Alpha Pyrenees(ALPH) Ready to climb2,313
29/5/201414:29Alpha Pyrenees - 20105
09/4/201013:03Income from Property.........guessing 6%241
14/8/200918:43Alpha Pyrenees1
22/7/200921:32Property Dividends1

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fenners66: And at last the share price drops to nearly zero - not quite there yet but a more realistic approximation of value surely?
fenners66: Got to admit I am baffled at the share price moves here
fenners66: Well WTF?! was all that about? It did both. A rise to .25 and all the way back down to .075 just unbelievable. Has a boiler room got hold of this, bought up shares and sold them on then once they are out the share price crashes back to where it belongs? Stock Exchange ought to take a look.
red army: All of this could have been predicted by a board of directors that cannot seem to see the wood for the trees. To run a company at a loss is the easy route compared with formulating a strategy that enhances value. SHARE PRICE IN 2006 115p SHARE PRICE IN 2015 2p What on earth do these directors do apart from destroy company value
cjohn: Hi Señor Sensible, you are right about interest rate and currency swaps. These were commnoplace about a decade or more ago. They were actually a sine qua non of loans from some high Street banks to small companies. Neither the relevant bankers nor the finance officers of the companies foresaw the current unusual credit conditions. Does this mean those people were culpable or stupid? In my view, it doesn't. They just went along with then current practice. Almost two years ago now, I bought a large holding in Peel Hotels (PHO) whose share price had been utterly trashed following an interest rate swap that went sour years later. The company has survived and the share Price recovered some of the way. (Still a good bargain in my view.) My feeling is that the survival prospects of ALPH are higher than is generally believed on this board. QE has definitely improved the prospects of re-financing. But I would be absolutely astounded if it was BARC themselves who came thorugh with new finance. This seems to me to be imposible, given the LTV. You drew attention to the company's statutes which don't allow issuing new equity at below NAV. This rules out a whole raft of deeply discounted equity issues, which would have been the easy (and shareholder value destroying) escape from faliure. If this condition hadn't been in the statutes, I'd never have touched ALPH. It seems to me that mezzanine finance, (with loans convertible to shares at above NAV - current NAV??) is a possible option, and I can think of a couple of others. On the whole, ALPH looks like a decent wager. If ALPH does achieve refinancing, the upside will be considerable. I doubled up my holding at an average price of not far off 1p. I was happy to take that wager and should there be any further indication of progress, I would buy more. Please, understand my risk profile though: I regard this share as a gamble. There is a significant risk it could go under, but less than is generally believed, in my view.
mgalle: A much better post from Sensible. I really hope that the property is valued up - however I hope that any lender will take notice that Alph has sold property above the official current book value. (The situation is really no different then when the share price was 6p a couple of months ago.) Lets pray for QE very early in the new year and a cheap mortgage.
cjohn: The amount of cash at the bank is not the issue. The modest rate of operating loss suggests that there will still be cash in the bank in February. The only question is whether the management can pull off a re-financing. Obviously, given the LTV, there is no possiblity of renewing the Barclay's loan or obtaining a senior loan from any other bank. There are other possiblities for re-financing: equity finance has obvious drawbacks given the derisory share price, quite apart from the complications of the trust's provisions. However, there is subordinate debt of one sort or another: mezzanine finance is the obvious candidate. Obviously, it'll be more expensive than senior debt. (To be weighted against that, Alph would be free of the onerous interest rate on the swap.) There is a property revaluaton coming up at the end of the year. Given the successful renewal and extensión of the Alcatel-Lucent letting, it's highly likely that this property - a significant proportion of Alph's overall portfolio - will be revalued upwards. (Otherwise Spanish property values have begun to tick up, French values are still flat on average.) So we might expect to see an upgrade in net asset value at year end, in spite of the operating loss. My feeling is that there's a 50-50 chance they'll obtain re-financing. Discounting an innate bias to optimism, let's call that a 1 in 3 chance of obtaining subordinate debt. In that 1 in 3 shot, the SP would be trading at a very significant discount to asset value. So the 1 in 3 shot is likely to prove very lucrative, if shares are bought now. (However, the picture is complicated by positive outcomes that use a combo of debt and equity.) So a 2 in 3 chance of a total wipe out. A 1 in 3 chance of a very significant profit on shares bought now. I'd be interested to discuss probabilites with other posters on the board.
blackpoolsteve: The sad facts are the share price says it all,not just this year,but over the last 5. How the board can look themselves in the mirror,whilst blaming the French economy etc beggars belief. I bought this share for income, and I should really have sold out.Thankfully I only have less than 20,000 ,but the holding will probably disappear,as it is really too small to sell now. I think SRE is a better prospect,so good luck to still hold this dog
mgalle: I don't really believe that what you say on here really makes much difference to the price especially for something as large as Alpha. Clearly there are shorters making posts here (based on what could happen in 2015!) and the geo-political outlook in Europe is troubled. (I could be wrong but I think it is unlikely that anything much will come of it.) I remember when the share price was 30p and the economic climate was very troubled then, so the shareholders have a right to vent their rage. The management really does have to get their act together and the new big buyer may be a catalyst for this. Clearly the Alpha share price could and should be worth more. (I Don't think I should say if I am holding or not but if the share price does go done much further than it will become very attractive for me to buy some more. It was very brave of you to get in at 3p. I believe the window for that was one afternoon - at the time I thought it was going lower!)
cashking85: ALPH Valuation of REITs: 1. What is a REIT? A real estate investment trust, or REIT, is a company that owns, and in most cases, operates income-producing real estate. 2. How are they different compared to Stocks? >>>> REIT stocks are traded like any other company shares all the REITs do not pay any income tax >>>> Where there are legal complications that may not be possible, like in the UK, a way of avoiding the unfavourable tax consequences they domicile themselves offshore (e.g., in Guernsey or Jersey) >>>> REITs are usually closed-end funds, what sets them apart from unit trusts is their fixed capital, that means the total amount of capital is fixed and they have a fixed amount of shares >> Unlike other companies they do not issue any more shares 3. How does the investor benefit from REITs >>>> REITs pay out large regular dividends >>>> Unlike manufacturing / service companies at least 90% or in most cases all their income is paid out to the share holders as dividend >>>> Investors are rewarded by both the appreciation of the REIT share price traded and the dividend paid outs 4. How do you Assess an REIT? >>>> If you try to estimate the value of a real estate investment trust (REIT) traditional metrics like the earnings-per-share (EPS) ratio, growth, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple do not apply >>>> The guage of performance of most businesses are net income numbers >>>> However, that includes depreciation expenses, which are significant line items. For most businesses, depreciation is an acceptable non-cash charge that allocates the cost of an investment made in a prior period >>>> But real estate is different than most fixed-plant or equipment investments, property rarely loses value and often appreciates in value >>>> Net income, a measure reduced by depreciation, is therefore an inferior gauge of performance of any REIT >>>> Therefore, REITs are instead judged by funds from operations (FFO), which excludes depreciation. >>>> FFO has a disadvantage though, it does not deduct for capital expenditures required to maintain the existing portfolio of properties >>>> In estimating the value of an REIT, professional analysts therefore use a measure called " Adjusted funds from operations" (AFFO) >>>> AFFO = FFO MINUS the expenditure on maintenance of the properties >>>> Although FFO is commonly used, professionals tend to focus on AFFO for two reasons >>>> One, it is a more precise measure of residual cash flow available to shareholders and therefore a better "base number" for estimating value >>>> Two, because it is true residual cash flow, it is a better predictor of the REIT's future capacity to pay dividends. >>>> The measure of assessing and comparing REITs is by a ratio called "FFO Yield" or "AFFO Yield" >>>> FFO Yield = FFO DIVIDED by Market cap expressed as a percentage >>>> AFFO Yield = AFFO DIVIDED by Market cap expressed as a percentage 5. How does ALPH Compare with other Commercial REITs listed in UK ? >>>> The purpose of all this is so that we could assess the relative attractiveness of UK listed commercial REITS >>>> Due to time restrictions I have utilized the FFO yield and not AFFO Yield in these comparison. ALPH >>>> Market Cap = 6.99, FFO = 23.004 , FFO Yield = 329 .10% TEIF >>>> Market Cap = 49, FFO = 24.31 , FFO Yield = 49.61% ABL >>>> Market Cap = 30.81, FFO = 24.294 , FFO Yield = 78.85% FCPT >>>> Market Cap = 714.6, FFO = 59.168 , FFO Yield = 8.28% SRE >>>> Market Cap = 58.74, FFO = 47.772 , FFO Yield = 81.33% UKCM >>>> Market Cap = 802.95, FFO = 73.972 , FFO Yield = 9.21% >>>> There is an abnormally high FFO yield of 329.10% compared with all others, why? >>>> Two reasons, ONE the share price dropped like a stone as a result of over reaction >>>> Two, ALPH have a strategy of high borrowings to deliver high yield to its shareholders. >>>> All Commercial REITs borrow to invest in properties so ALPH is no different in such practice >>>> ALPH has a bank borrowings of 193.99 Mill GBP Vs an asset value of 245 Mill GBP >>>> Due to the high debt ratio they are paying out as finance costs 7.26 mill >>>> However that is not a major cost of concern since >>>> (A) their rental service income is 23 mill GBP per Annum >>>> (B) they have more than 87% occupancy >>>> (c) They have more than 83 % of revenue from Grade "A" long term Tenants >>>> (D) Their long term loans are at a fixed 5.26% interest rated borrowings >>>> It appears that ALPH's sudden drop of their Share price by almost 66.60% is skewing the FFO Yield number >>>> Once the over correction is reversed the FFO yield would be comparable to the other Commercial REIT levels...
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