Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 04/11/2015 09:55

Can anyone remember if cash held in euro's or sterling as euro now fallen to below 1.40 euro to the pound also debt split between currencies. From memory much of the debt was in sterling.

[cyberbub] 03/11/2015 14:32

I suspect that a few potless T+20ers might need to sell in the next few days... hopefully not too much pressure on the share price .. I will look forward to seeing next NAV news...

[senor_sensible] 22/10/2015 15:45

Expecting NAV to increase this time, think they will give update in Nov

[senor_sensible] 22/10/2015 15:45

3p would be nice, it was trading comfortably at 5p in the past, nothing much has changed since then

[cyberbub] 22/10/2015 15:42

Nice share price action so far... touch wood... personally I think somewhere in the 3p range is fair value after last week's RNS... as always, Mr Market will decide...NAI

[senor_sensible] 20/10/2015 08:38

Order filling IMO, can sell at .9p

[cyberbub] 19/10/2015 11:57

The real spread is about 0.85p - 1.0p.

[cyberbub] 19/10/2015 08:34

Indeed Senor. If the BOD believe there will be 10p+ per share left at the end of the disposals, they or their mates might well try to take the company private at say 5p?ALPH is definitely a gamble, and not one to 'bet the office block' on... bust or multi bagger, that is the question??

[senor_sensible] 19/10/2015 08:14

Cyberhub, agree with comments. This company has approx 10Mil cash in the bank and market cap of 1mil, LTV less than 100%, rent from properties covers interest and service fees so assuming the bank, remains supportive there is light at the end of the tunnel in the 5-10p range. If property increase in value or other finance is arranged then this could rise further, plus the BOD have fingers in other REIT pies so a takeover is not off the table either. IMO all the really negative stuff is behind and if it wasn't for the ill advised hedges these would have 30mil cash in the bank (30 times market cap)

[cyberbub] 18/10/2015 21:23

Essentially ALPH shares at this level are 'option money'. There is a decent chance that in the end-game the shares will be worthless. On the other hand, from a market cap of barely £1M (yes, 1 million quid) it would really just take a modest amount of luck, or a modest upturn in the market, to give shareholders 5-10p per share when the property sales have all gone through. Remember that they are also making a rental income still, from all of the various properties they do still hold (albeit there are obviously maintenance costs as well). So although it looks like a basket case at present, heavily indebted and being screwed by Barclays, it may not always be so... and there are presumably some significant shareholders who would like to see at least a reduced loss on their investments at much higher prices...

Faites vos jeux.

All just IMO, no advice intended.

[cyberbub] 16/10/2015 23:11

Another intriguing possibility is that the latest RNS could be the trigger for shorters to start closing out... If they have been shorting since the 5-6p range after it became clear that NAV was falling rapidly (or maybe even shorting from 20p+ a couple of years ago?), they may well be thinking that really there is not that much for them to gain sub-1p and it's time to move on? Perhaps they are responsible for the possible background buying pressure?NAI

[cyberbub] 16/10/2015 16:07

There's no doubt it's a highly risky share, but 1p is basically saying it's going bust. Which is entirely possible to be fair, or that the equity will end up worthless.... But it's already almost worthless. If the company does manage to recover any significant value from its portfolio then it 'should' be a multi bagger from 1p... IMO of course... The latest bank deal at least holds out an opportunity that there is a recovery possible, and so Mr Market needs to price that in, which in my view means a good bit above 1p... whether Mr Market agrees with me is another matter LOLNo advice intended

[cyberbub] 16/10/2015 12:04

Someone put in a substantial buy order at 1p maybe?

[senor_sensible] 16/10/2015 11:51

looks to me like a buy order might be getting filled, can sell well above the mid price.

[neil9574] 16/10/2015 11:01

nice bit of research there Senor.

[neil9574] 16/10/2015 11:00

Thought this may have gone up slightly today..

Why the drop?

[senor_sensible] 16/10/2015 10:46

And above all that the cash position keep on going up. :-)

[senor_sensible] 16/10/2015 10:43

??????
Just saying like ?

Service fees are linked to rent, so as the company sells property the service fees drop.
Interest payable is linked to finance on property, so as property is sold the interest payable drops too.

Paying down debt brings about lower costs :-)

French property is now going up in value.
For the last Year Spain has been flying.
hxxp://www.propertywire.com/hot-topics/spain.html

Therefore the book value of these properties still held is going to appreciate going forward.

But if you don't believe that to be the case you are probably best off selling up and moving on.

[hosede] 16/10/2015 10:25

SS
But they haven't sold a single property yet! Either that or they're keeping mum about it. I would guess it will take 4-5 years (min) to sell them all. The banks are charging 2.6m for(each) six month extension - Thats about 20-25m in total - Barcklays must be rufbbing theit hands with glee

[cyberbub] 15/10/2015 16:42

MOS recently went from 4p to 24p intraday... If ALPH is perceived as having received a 'get out of jail card' then might there be a similar rerating here?NAI

[cyberbub] 15/10/2015 15:55

Senor, someone bought 1.3M at 11am, and they will be looking for a return at some point IMO... are the MMS just holding the share price back until that buy is filled by sellers?NAI

[senor_sensible] 15/10/2015 14:03

Hosede, Their properties are undervalued on the books, which is why it is easy to sell at market price, but prices in France have been improving. Spain is flying at the moment 9seems to be lots of Chinese money making it's way into the commercial property market in Spain).

I still think there could be another 2 two days of share price rises here could be on the cards

[hosede] 15/10/2015 13:46

SS
the trouble is they are (near) distressed sellers. They won't get market price for their properties - even 5% less + selling costs will wipe out the 10p a share - and the bank have just charged another 1% arrangement fee (2.6million) for the six month extension. It's just prolonging the death throes
incidentally re wine I meant 9 euros in France not in UK:-)

[senor_sensible] 15/10/2015 12:51

IMO if it breaks through 1.5p on the next push that will form support so happy for the traders to come and push it through....