Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[muzerewa] 20/8/2015 12:15

I'm afraid ALPH is in the final arc of a death spiral. Doomed to oblivion. The nails of the the coffin have been hammered in and the earth to be cast upon it.

[hosede] 20/8/2015 10:34

Could say it's fallen of a cliff - but actually it's only fallen off a pebble. There's no cliff left :-) The directors will keep drawing their salaries til the bank closes them down

[senor_sensible] 20/8/2015 10:22

:-) you pays your money and take yer chances.
Over a mil buys today

[sleepy] 20/8/2015 10:19

Señor - even better value for you today!

[senor_sensible] 19/8/2015 08:47

Hi Steve,

Thanks for spending some of you evening to advise me on my investments, sorry I could not respond sooner but I was having some chilled Tinto Verano whilst watching the sunset over the med.

I am 100% happy with my exposure to all my investments including my very risky ones which are of a rocket or bust nature and have had no problems sleeping.

My portfolio includes funds, fund of funds, blue chip, small cap and Aim. Some of my riskier shares are like Alph where the share price is a fraction of the cash in bank or adjusted NAV (note is all the property sold at market price and debt was settled this would give 10p per share return). If alph 10 bagged it would make a small positive difference to my portfolio, if it went bust it would make a small negative difference to my portfolio

And some where the share price is above the adjusted NAV such as SRE, one of my minor concerns at SRE is the fact the NAV seems to be inflated by upward revaluations of property which do not follow general market trends in the region which tend to precede a placing, diluting the value of my shares (Smaller part of bigger company but if there are doubt about valuations it could end up with more investors looking for the exit door) Also concerned at the prices paid for some properties which appear to above market value (hence the lack of competition when buying property)and also the fact that insiders are selling shares on a regular basis, I have a few other things niggling me but don't want to go into detail here. I am more concerned about my holding in SRE than I am about my holding in Alph. Out of the two I think Alph is the most likely to be a 10 bagger in the next couple of years :-) and I can take the profit from SRE much easier.

No point comparing apples with oranges, one is closer to the top and the other is closer to the bottom.... :-)

I have quite a lot of research on SRE, will post over there some time, but in the meantime I suggest u look at the background to the properties and what historic valuations were and why there is a need to reduce the LTV while borrowing costs are at all time lows :-)

[blackpoolsteve] 18/8/2015 19:26

Senor,

You must be the eternal optimist, as I know that you have been going on about ALPH for 18 months/2 years. Last year the NAV dropped to 12p from 24p I think,and that was enough for me, as the debt was becoming troublesome. No Rights Issue could be persued because of the crippling Barclays interest rate - which is still a killer.

At the next report the NAV dropped to 6p,but the huge debts remain. Why throw good money after bad,especially as this is still classified as an investment trust,albeit one concerning property
Nearly all property companies have reported good progress,QED,CAL,TR Property,CLI etc;this is not ramping,advising of facts and logic.

SRE was also a risk with very high gearing,(it still has but the LTV is improving). The board have been very proactive,and increased institutional holdings. Private investors were excluded from a recent funding but the boards intentions were genuine in trying to create shareholder value.This is a feature that IERE/IERP and ALPH lack.Look at the share graph for the both shares, and the your 200% in SRE should improve,but your average in ALPH may end up at 0% in a few months time ....

I guess it all comes down to having a balanced view of things,but I dont usually average down more than once. Anyone who continually averaged down on ALPH will be having sleepless nights,so I hope you're not in this group Senor.

I thought the idea of bulletin boards was to warn,encourage and advise;like the good monarch, and this is the reason for this note - I hope you understand my reasoning my friend

All the best,

Steve

[wskill] 18/8/2015 17:53

This board of directors are about the worst I have seen running a property company ,of course they managed to give Alpha another 7 year contract to run this company into the ground that is where the rest of the assets will go to buy them out.

[alphahunter] 18/8/2015 17:45

Did we read the same communique?

[senor_sensible] 18/8/2015 12:01

Would love to stay and chat but I am sailing and about to lose internet.

[senor_sensible] 18/8/2015 11:56

If peeps read the accounts properly they might see that the company actually made an operating profit for 6 Months to June 1025 of £2.76Mil.

Operating profit £2.76Mil
Cash in Bank £9.9Mil
Market Cap £0.88Mil
ICR over the six months to 30 June 2015 was 136%

[senor_sensible] 18/8/2015 10:43

I am already invested in SRE, over 200% up so my dividend yield is looking quite good there, I am not increasing there and was thinking of topslicing there to increase here. If I get time I might post the reasoning and research behind my current opinion on the SRE board later. I try to avoid cross board chatter because it looks I am ramping for my stocks elsewhere :-)

[blackpoolsteve] 18/8/2015 10:29

Bottom line is that NAV has dropped off a cliff over the last 5 years - the trend is you're friend,or enemy,if you choose to ignore it.

I feel your £1k would be better invested in SRE, as its NAV is increasing and its paying a dividend,with a potential full listing/or takeover ...
... just saying Senor,good luck ,as sold out last year when NAV halved then ...

Regards,Steve

[senor_sensible] 18/8/2015 10:19

Thought I'd add £1k @ 0.74p.

[senor_sensible] 18/8/2015 09:33

There is no loan to value ("LTV") covenant test on any of the Trust's properties. Interest cover ratio ("ICR") covenant on the senior borrowings is set at 115% - the Trust's weighted average ICR over the six months to 30 June 2015 was 136%.

Anything below 100% means the company are having problems servicing debt, BARX set their limit at 115% and the actual ICR is 135%.

Not going into administration, It would have to be less than 100% for force administration.

Above 150% and the company would be considered investment grade.

Therefore this is closer to investment grade than basket case..... just saying like.

[red army] 18/8/2015 08:29

Will the last one to leave turn the lights out.

What a example of poor directorship - boys trying to do mens jobs.

[senor_sensible] 18/8/2015 08:29

lol, NAV affected by deferred taxation, If they are realising assets the only thing that matters is cash in the bank, because that is what gets divied up, and as I have said numerous times, the cash keep going up.

No doubt as property is sold the 8% ish rental income also stops on that property, but the management fees are 1% of portfolio value so costs are also reduceing and also the interest to the bank reduces. I expect approx £15 mil to be divied if all assets sold over the next two years, that a 15x increase on today's price.

That said my preferred option would be re-finance with another lender and then persue Barx over mis-selling currency and interest rate swaps as has just happened in the US.

At sub 3p this is worth a buy and hold IMO

[blackpoolsteve] 18/8/2015 08:18

Sorry Senor,

Check out the downward NAV..... bottom fishing with peanuts on results

This board should have resigned years ago. Check out IERE..... and in contrast SRE. ALPH is following the former into administration

Regards, Steve

[senor_sensible] 18/8/2015 08:09

seems to be a little activity this morning, all buys at the moment

[senor_sensible] 17/8/2015 08:31

Worth getting up early tomorrow?

[senor_sensible] 12/8/2015 10:15

Euro is rising against major currencies ATM, EU has growth and property prices on the up and the MMs decide to drop this. I should imagine ALPH is fairly independent from the Macro Economic world and lives in it's own little bubble where the BOD are reluctant to divulge how much cash is now in the bank, approx 7-8 times market cap cash in the bank. Of course we will get last years balance in the annual report but there has been some growth in cash since then, lets see if they add it in the post reporting period significant data.

[senor_sensible] 25/7/2015 09:27

Shame there was no extension on the currency hedge.

[4spiel] 18/7/2015 21:51

There was not so much wrong with the investment as with the loss of the currency hedge. Now with sterling substantially recovered - if temporarily ! ?- but maybe would have been long enough ! What a shame - but it's too late I think ?

[chrisgail] 18/7/2015 19:09

The sale is a small step in the right direction, we need a few more to keep the bank happy, that should then result in an extension and slowly but surely value for holders...............we will see.