Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 19/1/2015 12:48

Less than one month to go!

[senor_sensible] 19/1/2015 12:09

As long as they arrange the finance in the same currency as the Property, i.e. Euros then the re-finaincing should be a lot easier. Also makes Barx less likely to force a fire sale IMO

[red army] 19/1/2015 08:54

The property valuation is likely to decrease as the Euro weakens as convertion back to £ will show.
Great for confidence in Europe but hopeless if you value in £'s.

[dogwalker] 19/1/2015 08:25

'chickens' ,'hatching' , 'counting' spring to mind, Senor_sesible ! But, we live in hope.

[senor_sensible] 19/1/2015 07:18

Swiss have just removed the roadblock to QE, the EU central bank will be printing some cash and we will see some good upward momentum on property values...... just in time for the re-financing here. lady luck is starting to move in our favour :-)

[cjohn] 16/1/2015 11:51

The revaluation will be for property values AS AT the 31st December.

This does not mean the report will be produced on the 31st December.

[senor_sensible] 09/1/2015 08:26

From half year report:

Revaluation and Net Asset Value

Investment properties are included in the balance sheet at an independent valuation of £222.8 million (€278.0 million) providing an average valuation yield across the portfolio of 8.2% as at 30 June 2014. The portfolio valuation has decreased by 4.3% compared to 31 December 2013 on a like for like basis taking into account the asset sales that have completed in the period. The next revaluation will take place as at 31 December 2014.

Hopefully this valuation will include the new ALU site :-)

[senor_sensible] 09/1/2015 08:03

mgalle, my info regarding the independent valuation due in dec2014 came from company RNS releases, I hope they do get paid a percentage of the property value because they might mark it up :-)

There might be some process time to take into account for the valuation - valuation report - review - approve - release. I am not too worried.

[mgalle] 08/1/2015 18:31

I think I put that very badly – the company which has the contract to service the buildings did very well – I was not the only one to think it could have been done for less. I have no idea what they actually pay their staff.

Senor is usually clued up on these things but he could be wrong.

[mgalle] 08/1/2015 16:30

I think it is very unlikely that the valuer wants to be paid first or there is some problem about them been paid. The staff looking after the properties are very well paid - some of us thought overly so considering the situation. Alpha actually makes a lot of money and only the onerous loan is making things difficult.

Senor came up with this information about a valuation and it may not have been accurate.

[pugugly] 08/1/2015 13:13

Anyone know how much valuers are paid ? Could it be they are asking for security for their fees which might be a reason or the delay, but I would have thought more than enought money in the bank.

In the UK they tend to work on a percentage of the valuation but not sure the position in Europe but whatever it could be a significant cash cost unless anyone has an accurate idea.

Thoughts ?

[senor_sensible] 05/1/2015 18:03

Revaluation was supposed to be December 2014, Valuer might still be on the p1ss.....

[mgalle] 05/1/2015 16:34

Hi Senor - would not want to tempt fate but is this property valuation update happening? Looked on Alpha site but no mention.

[senor_sensible] 05/1/2015 10:56

Still a few buys going under the radar.....

[senor_sensible] 11/12/2014 10:31

Still attracting some buyers, decent valuation this month an this will be trading at new level, over 5p?

[senor_sensible] 05/12/2014 11:18

I agree, Situation is not much different from when this was 6p, except another property disposal at book value and a commitment to increase let are to Alu, if anything should be seen as more positive.

Quite a few are shorting this and the recent RNS was justifiably tight lipped about cash and improving prospects. Might contribute to this trading at this level rather than 5-6p range.

Still think the upside is worth the risk.

[mgalle] 04/12/2014 12:26

A much better post from Sensible.

I really hope that the property is valued up - however I hope that any lender will take notice that Alph has sold property above the official current book value.

(The situation is really no different then when the share price was 6p a couple of months ago.)

Lets pray for QE very early in the new year and a cheap mortgage.

[senor_sensible] 04/12/2014 10:20

Mgalle, lol, yes Tesco is much safer option than ALPH, but the potential upside is also much lower. will be lucky to get 40% over next two years assuming Tesco can solve all their problems and do not keep losing market share. whereas this has potential to increase by 2000% if one or two problems are sorted out.

High risk = high potential reward = Alph
Low risk = Low potential reward = TSCO
very low risk = Reward does not even match inflation = Cash ISA

How on earth can this be read as misleading.

Yes the cash is being held as security against debt, but the latest RNS only Stipulated property value and borrowings, it did not include cash.

Difference in property and borrowing is approx. 7Mil in credit, these significant amount of cash in the bank now following disposals pushing the adjusted real NAV up IMO to well above 12Million.

There is a property re-valuation at the end of December which is expected to increase the property valuation by at least 6-8% MAYBE AS MUCH AS 15% (Not taking into account the ALU extension). This will put the real NAV at about 24-30 Mil with a current market cap of 2Mil this is 12-15x current share price

If a third party buys the property at book value there is about 12 Million to be shared between the current shareholders which is 6x current SP

If a third party buys the property at current borrowed value there is approx 5 mil to be shares between current shareholders which is 2.5 times current sp

The company were doing the right thing at the last RNS, they could not give details of the cash and the increasing NAV whilst there is still the re-valuation due at end of Dec and re-finance in Feb.

Not a single doom and gloomer or foot shooter has managed to mention how much cash is in the bank, because they know it does not fit with their agenda. but IMO at below 5p this is still worth taking a punt, once the outcome of pending actions emerge we might see higher share price being justified.

Why anyone would want to sell at the bottom ?? perhaps they have a different agenda??

[envirovision] 03/12/2014 20:48

Will you include postage?

[killieboy] 03/12/2014 20:37

FOR SALE: ALPH share certificate dating back to when company was solvent. Free to a good home (negligible face value)!

[mgalle] 03/12/2014 12:56

Senor - A takeover is unlikely based on cash as any cash is in a special account with Barclays to be held against the debt. (Alph is even paying interest on it.) There were no takeovers of other property companies that got into difficulties. Tesco’s is a much safer investment than Alph so the ISA analogy is pretty misleading.

A lot depends on the intentions of Barclays do they want to swallow the property or they happy making money from the debt? (I suspect that most of the staff has changed since the currency swap.) It would be pretty embarrassing on their investor side, considering they have put clients’ money into Alph then practically bankrupted them with the currency hedge that was supposed to lower risk. But this is Great Britain so who cares. Will the debt from the currency hedge be considered to be short term and separated from property and so allow a low rate? Most lenders will view the total debt as too big to make a loan that would be cheap enough to keep it going.

There does not appear to be much margin of safety for investors although the property evaluation is conservative considering Alph has sold property for more than the supposed book value. (However I would not be surprised if the official valuation falls in December as occupancy is lower.) It would only take one property sold at auction for much lower than book and all the shareholders will be wiped out.

We do not even know which of the big shareholders have been selling or buying recently.

QE would of course help a lot.

[cjohn] 03/12/2014 11:06

Hi Señor Sensible,

They will have to go for unsecured debt.

My feeling is that your calculation of a possible LTV of 80% after the property re-valuation at the end of December is on the optimistic side.

However, a mezzanine finance firm(s) might well be prepared to offer a loan, given the huge upside, if the French property market does recover over the next few years. (Obviously the loan might well be convertible.)

[senor_sensible] 01/12/2014 18:53

If you have a look at how much cash is in the bank you will see that a third party could come and take this over FOC , cash is much higher than current market cap and if the property valuation comes in as high it could be expected to be they could have a LTV of 80% ish and the cash on top. not quite as dead in the water as some would have you believe.

Good luck to all.

IMO barx will want to remain investor here, seems easy money for them so even if we don't get the LTV at this stage to get very good interest rates, we should still get something affordable to take us forward a few years when the property prices have appreciated by 40-50% giving a surplus of 100Mil (20 times market cap) and a decent yield in excess of current share price so for the long term holders the risk might be worth taking.

On the other hand, if you want something fairly risk free, pop down to Barclays and see if you can get a cash ISA giving 3% ish. The money you invest will be used by Barx to gamble on companies just like this one.

[mgalle] 28/11/2014 17:47

I think a large investor has decided that at 2p or under the shares are a good risk that even if the company declares bankruptcy they will get back a lot more than they bought them at in a relatively short time. (Although if they were put in a fire sale they could go for less than the debt but would Barclay's want to do that?)

[senor_sensible] 28/11/2014 10:50

Finance needs to be settled in Feb 2015, next news will be on the re-valuation of the properties due at end of Dec. Unless they have another disposal or extension such as the recent ALU site in the meantime