Alpha Growth Share Discussion Threads

[jambam] 09/10/2018 22:39

good news is life expectancy is dropping in the US. All helps :)

[euclid5] 09/10/2018 21:32

MacS, yes agree, but what if they live a few years - say 85 to 87 - 7 years. But not exactly sure how this all works in returns basis. But the Death insurance pay out is much larger than the cash sum paid to policy holders if they surrender their policy. So seems the holders are winners either way.

The IRR% may be on the complete mandate / portfolio the underlying co, own

Cyber, They mentioned in the Adm doc that there are US large competitors, so Algw is targeting the European/ Asian markets, but Kango may only be trading US market clients. So they may be able to offer them Euro/ Asian client base, perhaps with a payment fee to Kango?

[cyberbub] 09/10/2018 19:47

Just a couple of thoughts about Danny Swick:* I hadn't realised that he was *still* at Kango. How does that make sense, if he's now working for Algw, presumably a competitor?* I wonder whether DS only buying a modest amount of shares recently is because his package (whiche we've been told nothing about) includes share based payments? Or maybe he's been granted a (say) 1% one-off fee for every policy the company signs up?Any thoughts?

[mac_steven] 09/10/2018 17:51

euclid-Why would it be many years later if the policyholders are already in their 80's? Chances are that a high percentage will die in the first year and if Algw are gaining new policies daily this will be recurring.DS has stated that actuaries will re-underwrite the policies.I would suggest the IRR is per policy.It was interesting that DS mentioned a $1m policy in his interview with Justin Waite as if it was the norm.It wouldn't take many of them for a huge re-rate to occur here.

[jprich] 09/10/2018 17:14

Those waiting for 2p will be waiting a long time. Selling pressure is easing. Not long to go now.

[euclid5] 09/10/2018 16:17

Yes can theoretically can see 50-100 policies with potential value of £50m plus

The below is from the Adm doc:

The Company’s fee model will be structured on a client-by-client basis dependent on the relevant services provided. Asset sourcing and acquisition will be charged on a fixed percentage or minimum amount of the acquisition costs of any portfolio.

Where a client requires servicing, valuation, modelling, project management, etc services, fees will either be charged on a fixed percentage of the aggregate value of the assets or on a fixed costs basis. In some circumstances the Company will negotiate a bonus structure.

[cyberbub] 09/10/2018 16:13

Yes that's been my point as well Euclid. The numbers of policies needed to reach a (say) £100M 'block' mandate is really very small, a few hundred people max. That must be a tiny fraction of the market.The real question for me is what %age Algw will make on a mandate. I would be surprised if it's 5% like some have bandied around. 2% max IMO, but then even with £100M AUM that's £2M recurring profit at a high gross margin. That should see the company into profit as a whole. Any further mandates will be total jam, straight to the bottom line.NAI DYOR etc

[euclid5] 09/10/2018 16:13

IRR 15% - example:

$250k policy x 15% = $37500 x 100 policies = £3.75m

Key question is will they get that IRR once the Insurance co's pay out on death, many years later or IRR per annum

[euclid5] 09/10/2018 16:13

IRR 15% - example:

$250k policy x 15% = $37500 x 100 policies = £3.75m

Key question is will they get that IRR once the Insurance co's pay out on death, many years later or IRR per annum

[euclid5] 09/10/2018 16:09

The Policies which the Company will focus on are those with low face values (typically US$250,000 - $1.5m) allowing the greater number of policies to be aggregated with relevant funds available, with an average age of insured of 80 years or more and life expectancies of less than 10 years. A holding of a large number of well diversified Policies increases the probability of achieving target returns and avoiding incorrectly assessed Policies.

Whilst the Company does not have any existing contracts, the Company’s projections are that it will win its first advisory contracts and mandates for acquisitions/disposals within six months of Admission following a concerted marketing effort. Certain of the target clients are likely to prove to be repeat customers for the Company as they hold numerous portfolios and so will need on-going advice in relation to portfolio management, disposals and, potentially, further acquisitions

The Company anticipates that by 18 months from Admission it will have secured 3-6 advisory mandates (some of which will be one-off projects and others on-going monthly retainers) and approximately 4 acquisition/disposal roles. The assessment of the Company’s likely success in winning contracts is based on their knowledge of the industry as it currently stands and informal discussions with potential clients.
Listed Dec 2017 - 18 months takes them to June 2019

The Company is also aware through its corporate finance contacts of groups of Institutional investors who want to obtain an exposure to the SLS asset class as a means of asset diversification but which may not have the financial ability or the desire to buy and manage entire portfolios. These corporate finance houses are proposing to establish SPVs (likely to be established in Ireland) which are funded by bond issues to these investors.

[euclid5] 09/10/2018 16:07

The Policies which the Company will focus on are those with low face values (typically US$250,000 - $1.5m)

Example of them taking policies from $250k up to $1.5m in increases of $250k per policy:

250000
500000
750000
1000000
1250000
1500000

Total: $5,250,000 Divide by 6 to get an average of $875,000 per policy less 50% to be conservative ($437,500)

Assuming just 100 policies = £43.75m possible contract size

$87m /1.30 = £67m

[mac_steven] 09/10/2018 15:24

You're correct M1SAK,my error.

[jprich] 09/10/2018 15:23

All buys last several hours, bid / ask is not as advertised.

[m1sak] 09/10/2018 15:13

The interview is from the 4th June when he joined the company.

It`s "old"

[mac_steven] 09/10/2018 15:09

Internal rate of return (IRR) on each policy is 15-16%.

[mac_steven] 09/10/2018 15:08

Interview with DS on Voxmarkets today.

[richardjohn10] 09/10/2018 14:28

ALGW have released no news so everything else is speculation.

[jprich] 09/10/2018 14:20

No I wasnt referring or relying on that twitter post reply from Stephania.

[m1sak] 09/10/2018 14:10

Expected standard reply.

Just questioning the so called research.

Where does it say that there is an interview confirmed for Thursday? If you post the email reply on twitter from Stephania, she does not indicate any news due.

She also mentions another investor evening, the date of which has not been set.

[jprich] 09/10/2018 13:47

Not sure why your invested here. Why dont you trying talking to the company.

Jeez.

[m1sak] 09/10/2018 13:44

JamesAtkins-well known clown who only joined LSE last week.

And you believe him?

And "someon" on twitter?


Jeez.

[jprich] 09/10/2018 13:37

Offer price rising... tide turning

[jprich] 09/10/2018 13:24

On lse

JamesAtkins
Posts: 58
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 2.45
Boom
Today 13:04
Interview confirmed for Thursday! That means news intraday today or tomorrow - hold on multi million £ contracts incoming

[jprich] 09/10/2018 11:59

posted by someon twitter



StockWizard
‏ @realstock10
6m6 minutes ago

#algw.#aim.#lse.News anytime very strong buy from current m cap ,I've been adding more

[m1sak] 09/10/2018 10:27

Plenty of shares are available