Alpha Growth Share Discussion Threads

[lr4850] 01/5/2019 10:23

Noticed that someone who was a vociferous poster of many positive research articles now focusing on finding negative articles. is it to provide a balanced picture? We can all make up our minds. I know what I think.

[toolsmoker] 01/5/2019 09:16

Euclid you work at Aviva call centre dont lie

[7rademark] 01/5/2019 08:43

2 weeks ago the share price was 1.2p the placing must have been in progress then, I think they did well to get it away at 1.5p,

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:59

Capital Outlay in Life Settlements

In the past, we have shone light on the contrasting funds’ experiences including poor initial performance. Discussing how, in the life settlements asset class, early under-performance is not necessarily the best indicator of future outcomes.

The normal expectation for a newly established portfolio is an initial period of small negative return, because of continued premium payments and initial capital in purchase of policies. Furthermore, there is a low probability of actual maturities in the first quartile of expected experience. An initial negative return profile similarly observed in investments like infrastructure or portfolio of un-developed real-estate.

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:52

Cost of Insurance

This risk has gotten some headlines in recent years. With the well-known Insurance industry research house, Conning stating that, despite market conditions primed for growth of the market, COI on existing policies will challenge the growth trajectory of the market.

This risk is evident more in some life insurer issued paper than others, but requires the close attention of the manager or asset purchaser to minimise any potential risk to increased holding costs and thus reduced returns. The industry is closely following the outcomes of some litigation activities challenging the right of insurers to increase costs in an existing insurance contracts.

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:51

Lumpy Returns for Life Settlements Funds

Life settlements can add value to investors’ portfolios as mortality is not influenced by the volatility of traditional financial markets. Although, it displays a low correlation and limited volatility, investors need to consider the unique return characteristics of this asset.

Investors wanting the best result from the asset should be prepared to have a long-term investment horizon. The most predominant strategy for a fund is to buy and to hold to maturity, physical life policies. Returns are primarily driven by mortality. The performance of a pool polices should have a Poisson type mortality distribution not a “normal” or bell-shaped curve.

The shape of the curve will be determined by the mutually exclusive individual events reflecting the underlying insured lives. The potential shape can be modelled using the historical performance of similar insureds with perhaps an allowance for possible health improvement

factors. (These types of factors vary with the age and circumstances of the pool of samples.

Consequently, investors should expect potentially lumpy returns in the beginning and end of the performance life cycle particularly in small portfolios. This is because modelling is usually based on a minimum of 1,000 samples in each case. The mortality experience should usually accelerate as the pool of policies progress into the second and third quartile of expected returns as these are typically the statistically most likely period of outcomes.

The key for investors is not to miss the peak of maturities. Once the pool reaches its peak, the frequency of maturity may begin to decline as the number of remaining lives in the pool is reduced and the expected events enter the “tail” of possible outcomes.

By examining the GIS General Fund, the best times are yet to come. The conservative acquisition strategy has resulted in a modest return in initial years. The majority of the assets in the portfolio are now in the statistically likely second and early third quartiles of the curve

[wolfcub] 30/4/2019 21:41

A milestone day for Alphagrowth - a part of me as the months drifted by did begin to wonder if they would ever pull it off but I have to say I am well chuffed. Its only the start but i’m a patient guy and can see big figures here as they land more business 🚀 GL all genuine holders ( you can tell today who was caught out of the trade when news landed 😂) still time to get in at these levels- but for how long??

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:24

In January 2010, Goldman Sachs shut down its life settlements provider (Longmore Capital) approximately one month after discontinuing its tradable mortality index (QxX). Credit Suisse downsized its Life Finance Group in February 2010.

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:19

so much for your buddy's plan about securitisation:

As an investment tool, securitized
SLS are touted as offering an attractive investment feature: they are
uncorrelated assets, meaning their
performance is not directly tied to
typical market influences. After all,
death rates do not rise or fall based
on the stock market. By purchasing a
securitized pool, the argument goes,
an investor can spread the risk over
a large and diversified group of SLS
contracts.

However, critics question
their investment viability due to the
financial risks, lack of transparency,
and limited number of successful
transactions. Also, some industry
observers believe significant growth in
the securitization market can only be
achieved with a favorable rating from
a credit rating agency. However, rating
life settlement securitizations presents
many challenges, and in fact very few
have been rated.

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:14

RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFE SETTLEMENTS HOLDINGS
Overview

The fund holds [x] life settlement securities as at [reporting date], with a net asset value (“NAV”) of [y]. The value of these securities can be highly volatile and is dependent on certain key assumptions about how the future will unfold. In particular, those detailed below are key.

 Longevity risk. This is the risk that the mortality assumptions made are not borne out in practice and reference lives live longer than expected.

 Credit risk. This is the risk that the insurance companies issuing the life insurance policies are unable or unwilling to meet the death benefit payments of the insured lives as they fall due.

 Operational risk. This is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. For example, this includes the risk that premiums are not paid on time and thus the policy lapses, the risk of fraud and the risk that the insurance company increases the mortality charges (cost of insurance – “COI”)where possible

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:09

keep up the pump Tsmoker, as you need to dump your placing shares in the next few weeks, when you ramp this up with your twitter crew

you never replied to your own analysis of the £300k they are supposed to make on this deal?

Forgot to calculate $15m x 1.5% / 1.30 fx rate div 50%

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 21:07

don't work in a call centre! what do you mean?

[toolsmoker] 30/4/2019 18:35

And euclid the phones ringing get back to the call centre

[toolsmoker] 30/4/2019 16:56

This will make new highs in may .FACT

[7rademark] 30/4/2019 14:14

No one knows what is going to happen short term, the sellers and traders could have got this very wrong, looking at the 1.2m buy, there may be large buy orders in on the long awaited placing and initiation of the jv fund, if correct the drop from 30% up am was to facilitate this, the placing stock may be held onto or have already been sold into the market, algw could finish flat down or 100% up. Its that kind of stock.

[toolsmoker] 30/4/2019 14:08

Last year when volumes were massive it was during states hours let's see of that returns now .not just little old UK watching this gobind and Danny have others Interested

[ultra capital] 30/4/2019 13:18

The £ volume is still only around £200k trades today and no single large buys of 1m+ £20,000.If and when these start or the amount traded is £500k plus (20-25 million shares) then I'll buy in.

[7rademark] 30/4/2019 11:47

This gives us an insight into just how volitile algw is, and will be on news. 30% up to 3% up. In 3 hours, you don't lose that in a bank lol.

[7rademark] 30/4/2019 11:01

Well done trader 113875, bought at 1.8 could of sold over 2p, sold at 1.72. Idiot.

[ultra capital] 30/4/2019 10:31

Very short term there will be a overhang on the SharePrice due to the 30million shares coming to the market at 1.5p. On a positive note placing out the way so to speak and fund launched now. I would imagine the investor from 2017 will add to the 15m seed investment here and would be interesting to know how close they are to finalising an agreeement with one of the insurance firms on their hybrid product for the 9 figure allocation.

[7rademark] 30/4/2019 10:24

8.5m traded in the first two hours.

[euclid5] 30/4/2019 10:20

Toolsmoker, how do they earn £300k from this deal?

Swick has being very poor & not that confident in just buying £11,250 worth of shares, considering what he is being paid!

come to think of it the rest of the BoD's including the new directors recently employed, haven't bought into the placing either. That sends a lot of confidence to the market!

[7rademark] 30/4/2019 10:19

Bit of sneaky trading going on here. And why not, I'll always keep some however as now we have money and a successfully opened jv fund, more news may arrive on further deals.