Alpha Airports Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 28/9/2006 10:02

Interims out today and look surprisingly good considering the upheavals that must have been caused by the audit issues, management changes and security scares BUT the new management have made one HUGE error of judgement IMHO; they've flagged up a potential cut in the dividend. PI's like divi's for obvious reasons but institutions have come to like them more and more as a fundamental part of achieving their target annual growth rates. A high-divi-yield share like AAP is attractive to them for that reason. Take away the divi yield and the focus is on the far more uncertain growth prospects of the underlying business. I think AAP are shooting themselves in the foot here and may live to rue that decision.

Regards, Ian

[jeffian] 25/9/2006 11:43

The article in the Sunday Telegraph seems to have stirred a few armchair punters:

I think the basic point here is that nothing has changed since before suspension when the share price was 90+. Despite PwC throwing all their toys out of the pram causing mayhem, costing us £3m and losing half the Board over the 'corporate governance' issues, what effect did it have on the trading or financial performance of the company? Zippo/zilch/nada! So why shouldn't the share price go back where it came from?

As for the future, if anything good comes out of this debacle it may be that the new management are prepared to look afresh at everything without any historical 'baggage'. I've always suspected that the old team were psychologically tied to the in-flight catering side and a new team with no preconceptions would look at this with a clearer eye. It's highly capital intensive, highly competitive, narrow-margin business; huge costs are incurred with every contract they bid for and huge write-offs for those they don't get or lose; as airlines look for ever-greater cost efficiencies, this is an area that's always going to be squeezed. The Retail and airport services side, on the other hand, is booming. Maybe time for a change of emphasis?

Regards, Ian

[oniabsta] 25/9/2006 09:11

Now that the accounting issue that caused Alpha Airports' suspension in April has been dealt with, it could be an interesting long-term recovery play, says the Telegraph.

There are opportunities to expand Alpha's retail operations. For example, the Indian government is about to put the operation of its state-run airport stores up for tender, though the catering side requires attention.

The dividend cover is low at just 1.3 times. But Panmure Gordon, the house broker, has a price target of 85p. Buy.

[499budgie] 20/9/2006 17:57

This is a decent recovery stock, with nearly 2 times cover on div, it makes a good buy for dividend punters.

[matrix6] 15/9/2006 19:50

Charlie, great thread! are you in web-design? your thread looks great!

[charlie nolan] 15/9/2006 18:56

New Directors on board, new Chairman about to be announced, ex-div, this stock is a real keeper and looks set to rise. Buy early for Christmas!

[charlie nolan] 15/9/2006 15:55

Now watch the share price fly!

[oniabsta] 07/9/2006 16:13

sold 5k @ 67.51p and bought them back @ 64.613 .... brilliant!!
will buy more if they drop further

[eithin] 06/9/2006 15:58

No 3p ex Div drop so assume a 3p rise.....

[ggekkko] 06/9/2006 07:12

i also believe there is news on the way!

[ggekkko] 05/9/2006 21:20

twice as many buys as sells today, pause for breath then on the way

[jezboy1] 04/9/2006 17:29

well here's to 90p then jeff/ian!

[jeffian] 04/9/2006 17:07

Why shouldn't it go back to the level it was before suspension? Whatever you think about 'corporate governance' issues (and I'm firmly of the view that this should have been sorted out quietly behind the scenes without withdrawal of audit certificate, £3m exceptional costs and the loss of half the board!), it made not one penny's difference to the financial figures and the prospects of AAP remain identical to what they were before suspension (i.e. 90p+). IMHO.

Regards, Ian

[jezboy1] 04/9/2006 16:09

:-) Lofty

this will be registering as a top riser for the FTSE-all share
end of day (presently no. 1) - after hours trading will be interesting
and I will be watching closely tomorrow morning. If 70 is
comfortably breached then the sky's the limit baby.

But if the overhang is cleared then definite further upside.

anyone calling a target?

[loftypants] 04/9/2006 15:40

excellent

And no sign of the herd yet!

[jezboy1] 04/9/2006 15:25

betta believe it baby - and as I was commenting on earlier
on the back of very small relative volume.

if they decide to pile into this share - watch the price fly.
Might well have given break-out signals to the swing-traders
and if so, expect more upside :-)

[quids-in] 04/9/2006 15:23

Nice rise today guys.

[jezboy1] 04/9/2006 13:04

Hmmmm..
well positive signs on share price tick up are there,
wonder if the MM's will walk it down like they did friday
to fill some bigger buy orders.

Ian, from the figures u quote, presumably there aren't
that many shares 'traded' on this company - since
the greatest proportion sit in the accounts of a small
number of institutions who aren't interested in
dumping on the back of a decent divi.

I figure that must mean a more volatile share price?
If the volume of shares to be traded is small, (relative
to the actual volume available) - then presumably MM's
like to muck about with the price as much as possible
in order to keep trading moving (after all they only
make money on the spread). This could well create a
scenario in which a small volume of trades can move
the share price quite drammatically up or down.

What do u reckon?

[jeffian] 04/9/2006 11:42

No, only via that lunatic great white who pops up occasionally to ramp shares with unfounded t/o rumours. He seemed to think AAP (flight caterer/airport retailer etc.) had some direct correlation with BAA (airport owner).

AAP has a rather strange shareholder base in that, until the last year or so, the vast majority of the shares were held by no more than 6 institutions. Even now, nearly 60% are held by 4. The biggest holder is Servair (part of Air France) with nearly 27% and, whilst this has often been assumed to be a platform for a bid, Air France have no money and plenty of problems of their own, so they just pocket the huge divi and keep quiet. Schroders have 13% (down significantly on their holding a few years ago) and Aberforth have appeared recently with 12%, so if anyone did want to take a pop, it would only take a few calls to secure a majority!

I don't know why we've revived this thread - the other had much more interesting history. I expect it is 'cos it has graphs in the header which makes it easier to see what's going on!

Regards, ian

[jezboy1] 04/9/2006 10:55

cheers ian -
no need for a divi-wash here on the back of a rock bottom
price....

I note that this BB has reference to possible takeover,
good price for such a bid at the moment (look at BBA).

Is there much history of bid speculation around AAP?

ta in advance

[jeffian] 04/9/2006 10:25

jez,

Yes, ex-div Fri 8/9; payable 6/10

Regards, Ian

[jezboy1] 04/9/2006 09:42

er... quids-in of course it will fall by that much when it goes ex-div...

that is the way ex-div works, you don't get something for nothing.

Jeff/Ian can you confirm ex-div on friday?? I note it was 5th Oct
last year.

thanks in advance

[jeffian] 04/9/2006 09:35

That's theoretically true, quidsin, but if the market decides that the fall from 90+ to -60 on the back of an accounting 'scandal' that involved......errrm, no restatement of the accounts at all....overdone, then 3.2p is neither here nor there.

Regards, Ian

[quids-in] 04/9/2006 09:28

If divi is 3.2p it will probably fall that much, if not more on Friday when it goes XD.

[loftypants] 04/9/2006 08:02

looking very good
and a healthy divi by Friday to but!