Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 15/4/2021 13:50

It was a classic value trap 2 or 3 years ago, if it does come good shareholders will deserve it. Be interested to know how much cash Spin soaked up.

Edit - c.$150m over a decade and a half.

Anyone recall what price ALM raised cash from shareholders at, £3-something I believe?

[buffettjnr] 15/4/2021 13:45

It’s an easy 50% upside even on a fire sale. I can’t find too many of these lying around in these markets

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 13:35

The biggest near term issue I see is that CRS are under pressure and may push for a quick realisation of the assets.

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 13:32

Difference is the three top subs are now revenue producing rather than just a concept.

[spectoacc] 15/4/2021 13:32

Agree it's cheap (as it was 2 or 3 years ago too) & hopefully downside is limited. Something has to give on ALM eventually, but it'll do so without me.

FW - not sure I'd want Google as a competitor! Really ought to be a tasty size for someone.

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 13:30

It's all down to hitting those numbers. Fed have a high margin on revenue. If they hit $100m + in 3rd year then that's a billion $ company. They said in the presentation the only competitor is google. Plus a huge reoccurring revenue increase from new computer and smartphone adoption. Currently only 2 phones are cbrs capable. Same numbers apply for orbital. Current mcap of 60mill with a huge upside. Lots of ifs and buts however I do not see a downside from this level.

[spectoacc] 15/4/2021 13:24

Can't help but read the posts above and recall having thought exactly the same 2 or more years ago, particularly when CRS got involved.

Upshort - loads spent on costs, loads spaffed on the likes of Spin, no nearer to any returns.

Yes - hopefully in next 12-18 months (or 2 years, or...) there'll finally be the realisations, and shareholders will be well-deserving of their returns.

Cash position doesn't seem great to me, seeing how many fundraisings there could be, and how high costs are. And wouldn't want FW to slip up.

[buffettjnr] 15/4/2021 13:18

Where is the downside here? If the board acts with speed, they could dispose and return the cash. I still don’t quite understand why the listing costs are so high. $5m annually seems insane.

[escapetohome] 15/4/2021 12:59

Interesting ive taken a small nibble today as a result of your reports.
Thx.

[kooba] 15/4/2021 12:45

Numis the shop have a note out estimating NAV at 46p.They also point to FW talking revs $17M 2021 $40m 2022Finally feels like the NAV might have hit bottom ?Should be looking for at least current NAV on monetisation events over net 2 years. Hopefully more. Just hope these and the other portfolio updates are both realistic and deliverable.We have 3 good businesses in growth areas at inflection point in revenue traction. Think everything else is now written down and there might even be some modest positives eventually.Biggest plus for me was bobonumbers report that there are no delisting thoughts...was a concern.One for the bottom draw i guess.

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 07:50

21 mill for 2021 was my understanding

[kooba] 15/4/2021 07:45

Thanks bobonumber1 ..federated i understood were talking $17m annual revenues.. is that current year or forward?These revenue projections should be available to all holders...little financials in the slide shows that i can see.The Spin comment not covered in website content..but obviously that has been written off in sponsored research ..if there is anything recovered then positive.

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 07:44

Of other holders onboard to initiate this. If In 12-18 months time with 2 subs having high double digit million growing revenues this should be relatively big and something the board should actively engage with.

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 07:40

Continued. Brucy bonus. Acuterre ??? I presume is a renamed sci flour or precision biopsy. Trying to raise $30mill to progress r&d. Currently 1/3 of the way. My conclusion. Both fed and orbital can achieve $billion dollar valuations in 3 years. My calculation for orbital is 24p today alone based on last raise.Bridgecomm smaller but still very promising. Still hope for spin and possibly Acuterre. There is no possibility of delisting. Confirmed by Harry. Discussion to ipo/spac. Board say as we are not majority %holders in the subs this is not possible. My view is they only need to get 8-15

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 07:30

Continued. Bridgecomm. Doing well. Single digit millions revenue for 21. Again double for 22 onwards. Tapping into a $30billion market. Boeing part sponsoring ongoing r&d and progressive partnership with Nokia. Looks very interesting but smaller than the others.Spin. Not yet dead. ARM and applied are putting together a proprosal for an extended runway, details of which we will hear soon. ALM reluctant to participate so dilution expected. Worse case scenario there is significant value in the IP. Just a question of how that would be monetised. Spark insights. Probably dead.

[bobonumber1] 15/4/2021 07:24

I watched the whole presentation and asked lots of questions. It all looks very bullish. A brief breakdown.Fed growing rapidly. Single digit millions Rev for 21, double for 22 and looking to hit triple digit for 23 onwards with global expansion and WiFi 6Orbital side kick. Growing exponentially. Single digit million Rev 21, double digit 22 and high double + 2023. Every o&g pipeline operator will want to use their proprietary hyperspectural imaging. Also being used by the airforce for confidential reasons. And many other use cases. Raise at 3x from previous round plus additional 3x value added from $16mill contribution from US airforce

[bwm2] 15/4/2021 07:21

ohisay
Budgets were given for this year and next with this year broken down by quarter with actuals so far and revised expectations. Can the now put this on the web site without an RNS?

[kooba] 15/4/2021 07:13

As i said the slide show is on the website not the presentation dialogue which included forward looking revenue estimates for the company's largest asset..if you have found the full presentation let me know.

[ohisay] 15/4/2021 07:07

Presentation on the website at some point .??..

[kooba] 15/4/2021 06:52

I was unable to attend the CMD due to childcare issues...started at pick up time! I have spoken to one person who was on the call and understand there was some quite detailed updates from FW on turnover ..the numbers sounded quite pleasing in magnitude and i would have thought should be deemed price sensitive. FW is the company's largest asset and represents more than half its Nav. I have looked on the company website expecting the full vid of presentation but only has the slideshow without narrative so whilst interesting does not contain the verbal trading update on FW that was given on the call.This now seems to be price sensitive information only given to those that could attend the call...i do not think this is the correct determination of information.

[kooba] 13/4/2021 09:20

The monster companies lining up in the space Federated has a foothold in is very encouraging..does make me think that federated is such a small bite that at some point there could be a land grab in the sector and Federated could see an auction.So Cisco already moving in the area over $200b market caphttps://www.lightreading.com/5g/charter-wants-to-start-mapping-out-its-mobile-network/d/d-id/768632Charter comms a tiddler at $133b market cap.Both working with federated.

[spectoacc] 13/4/2021 06:58

And yet if ST read this thread, he'd know the Edison note isn't even all that accurate.

There's still value in ALM IMO, just not as much as claimed.

Waiting on Capital Markets presentation, hopefully make it clearer.

[ohisay] 13/4/2021 03:38

That’s clearly not what I was expecting when I last suggested buying Allied Minds' shares, at 38.5p (‘Technology winners with a huge margin of safety’, 19 October 2020). Allied Minds’ 43 per cent stake in Spin Memory had a read through valuation of US$77m at the time and accounted for 24.6p a share of my NAV per share estimate of 65p.

However, even if you attribute nil value to the Spin holding, then analysts at Edison estimate that Allied Minds’ remaining portfolio companies and net cash of US$22.3m (6.7p a share) still have a combined value of £104m (42.5p a share). There should be upside to that valuation, too. That’s because the company's largest investment, a 43.1 per cent holding in Federated Wireless, which has a read-through valuation of $92.7m (28p) based on the last funding round, is on track to achieve its revenue targets.

I've taken a position here ..full article worth a read.And Capital markets presentation tomorrow will be on the website afterwards ..Does look oversold.

[kooba] 09/4/2021 12:25

Mentioned in the Investors Chronicle i believe.