Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 06/4/2021 13:38

Edison note is no longer accessible as far as i can tell..maybe just checking those number...often better to check them before publication i reckon.I'm sure as its effectively promotional material someone at the company should fact check...conversation I've had before when they effectively double counted the capital distribution. That trade sale and distribution has done so much heavy lifting in company communications unfortunately surrounded by the ongoing failures in the rest of the portfolio.However did spot on the note that there is a AM capital markets day on 14th April..now the company with the 4th January update did say there would be a CMD in April ..details to follow. I can't find any details to shareholders of this event or how one might access it ..even on company website. So if its not well attended i guess the answer is tell people in future.I'm afraid comms goes from bad to worse here.

[kooba] 05/4/2021 17:14

Yes a SPAC might boost value short term but would obviously not be a money exit..AM would have listed paper that they may be locked in on. It could provide the company with a decent cash injection to progress in an exciting field without AM getting hit for not holding corner.On brighter note second biggest investment..https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bridgecomm-commence-targeted-customer-demos-130000779.html

[spectoacc] 05/4/2021 17:01

Good spot, haven't looked in detail. Edison so often iffy, which is surprising when everything will be run past the co in question first!

Sticking with my view of the cash, until something happens to change my mind.

Should we also consider that even with a FW SPAC listing, shareholders wouldn't be seeing all the cash back?

[kooba] 04/4/2021 17:59

Found the April fools on Edison.They are counting the increased valuation on Orbital Sidekick that has not completed as subject to regulatory approval as yet on post valuation $46m as opposed to AM who are taking last round funding at $11.9m which might not be that bad as the round is likely to go through shortly , but they are not diluting AM holding in the process to 24% not 30% fully diluted , so that is an incorrect calculation by a few M..then on the cash to get them 24% holding AM are committing $2.5m to the round , only $1.5m I believe has been taken from cash as $1m due on completion.Think that takes $3.75m odd off assets or 1.5p off asset value per share..now in the old days that would be trivial but these days every little matters.Might have got this wrong I guess but something ain't right on the Orbital valuation relating to last round if any cares to look.

[spectoacc] 01/4/2021 15:13

Thanks for that.

I'd take issue with them including the cash - 36.6p without it, the majority being Federated.

Can personally see ALM p*ssing the last of the cash up the wall. Or put another way, if it's not all done & dusted ASAP (which it won't be), the cash will be gone in costs in less than 5 yrs, even without one single penny to funding rounds.

Some will go into funding rounds this year, since all the holdings need more - but seeing how much went into Spin, I'm discounting the cash.

FW - as always - the big hope. Any news on that and the situation changes.

[kooba] 01/4/2021 14:21

Edison note out ..checking for errors!https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/waiting-for-news-on-funding-rounds/29228/

[kooba] 31/3/2021 08:18

Incubators - the last refuge of the scoundrel.Not sure its that all incubators or early stage investors are scoundrels! Ip group and Draper Esprit seem to be emerging well at the moment. Unfortunately AM has always been badly run with a bad model that never seemed aligned to shareholders and likely overvalued investments , they also made bad investment decisions or ultimately too many investments it couldn't support. The market cap after a small distribution is around $78m but they have lost hundreds of Ms getting here...they are an outlier in venture investing and an exceptionally bad one.

[scepticalinvestor] 31/3/2021 07:44

Good grief, is this still trading? Should have been liquidated when the mkt cap was 10x higherComplete and utter shareholder value destruction. The clue was in the BOD remuneration...

[buffettjnr] 31/3/2021 07:36

CRS has had a few things that have gone wrong. Some a lot less public but if you ask the right people, they might tell you a few stories.

[spectoacc] 31/3/2021 06:56

@walterwhite1 - as it touched its Covid nadir low from 2020 of 23p yesterday, I'd suggest your last sentence is very true. [Edit - low was actually 20p, but your point stands].

CRS have ballsed this one up, tho hardly their fault they got no support from the likes of the lamentable Invesco.

Yes, maybe FW comes through, and there's still value knocking around in ALM, but can't argue that the c.$5m a year being dribbled out is a big problem. Less of a problem if they'd sold the lot a year ago, or now, or even in the next 12 months.

Someone remind me what price the highest fundraising was at - £3.50-ish? But hey, let's trumpet that 12p cash return again.

Incubators - the last refuge of the scoundrel.

[walterwhite1] 30/3/2021 20:47

Good to read some honest debate regarding the shambles which is the BOD. They've used ALM to line their pockets whilst not giving a single thought to shareholders.
I wasn't expecting anything other than waffle in the 2020 results. So todays 8% drop didn't surprise me. I'd agree that the cash position is starting to look a little worrying. But I've long maintained that FED is the golden egg here. The potential for recurring revenues is excellent.
My b/e is 36p. I feel lucky as I assume others are under much deeper water?

[kooba] 30/3/2021 18:58

Maybe federated would struggle to achieve a premium to the valuation of $215m even into a SPAC ! The fact FW haven't achieved anything like revenue projections and are still loss making though might boost the SPAC value! Overall if you take it that Spin and Spark are gonners but that Bridgecomm and orbital could have upside in the next funding round it is still very difficult to come up with a nav projection with a 4 in front.The cash position is getting very worrying..they can keep the doors open for a few years sure but can they hold their corner in funding rounds protecting what remains of value ....and if they cant , they will get shafted.This needs to be resolved it cannot continue like this until there is nothing left burning $5m a year holding a few passive investments.Market cap $76m cash $20m portfolio valued by market at $56m and costing $5m to manage that passively.Add to that this tech investment company has had $100ms of losers and one small monetised winner (a chunk of that profit paid to management) and the NAV here is still going down and down against markets that have hit new highs does make you wonder how the management see this as sustainable and reasonable. I doubt Crystal Amber will let this continue ..they appear to have no shareholder support.

[bobonumber1] 30/3/2021 18:15

Specto or maybe now you can go by Spacto. I am with you if the spac achieves many multiples but if they don't then that eats into shareholder equity. For spin it's a good idea. A 2 year cash runway could give them opportunity to prove their tech. Let's see what the future holds

[spectoacc] 30/3/2021 15:15

@bobo - SPAC market in the US is just nuts. There's things listing at multiples of the valuation (from last funding round) of less than 12 months ago. No-profit co's a speciality.

Cazoo at $7bn? Nuts. Arrival at $13bn? Beyond nuts. (You may not have heard of Arrival, but it's now the largest listing of a UK co in history).

And those are just some UK co's - Federated, with some decent US blue-chip customers, ought to go down even better over there. SPAC'ing also far faster than IPO. They could have it away in weeks, and money back to us shareholders in little more than a month.

I don't understand why they haven't done it already - and I'd do same with Spin, raising perhaps next to nothing for ALM but raising cash for Spin and keeping a now listed shareholding to dispose of later. Just can't see a downside.

Yet it doesn't appear to be happening.

[bobonumber1] 30/3/2021 15:08

Specto. Can you tell me why you think better to spac than ipo?

[spectoacc] 30/3/2021 12:12

I fear I agree. Trumpeting the 12p divi from early 2020 AGAIN is ridiculous. CEO gone in that time at least - why did ALM need such a big board? - and there does seem to have been genuine progress in most of the holdings.

But most of them are small, and the SPAC bubble we're in now is a golden opportunity to reverse FW and return shareholders a big wad of cash.

As you say @kooba, perhaps then try to flog the rest to PE.

Disappointed with the cash burn - which shouldn't have been an issue because you'd think we'd have been all done by now.

There's value in ALM IMO, but rarely much progress.

[kooba] 30/3/2021 09:48

It's difficult to get any excitement from this share or it's statements, just full of the same platitudes and misguided confidence with no sight of any value inflection points coming up. Meanwhile NAV is still falling ( waiting for Spin write off) The company does not really have the money to fully support its few remaining investments and has no chance of raising any without large dilution. The structure still is not cost efficient in holding the few remaining passive investments. Should try and sell the whole shooting match to PE if they can.A SPAC on federated would maybe create short term value uplift but would still leave structure with a few small holdings and likely locked in listed holding it would mean however that FW would get funding without undue dilution to Allied Minds so might protect their position to an extent.The board really need to think outside the box to deliver for shareholders and it's difficult to have confidence that will be the case.

[spectoacc] 30/3/2021 07:31

Invesco reduced a few, reported yesterday, but still hold c.21%.

Hard to believe ALM this morning are still trumpeting the 12p special divi from over a year ago!

And "A number.." may be true, but much of the value is in only one. Why not SPAC it?


"A number of our portfolio companies made significant progress during the year. We believe in the future prospects of our portfolio companies, and are focused on achieving well-timed, risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders.

"The Board remain of the view that the group as a whole remains well positioned to maximise value and deliver additional returns to shareholders."

[tole] 11/3/2021 14:37

Clearing volume today

[kooba] 11/3/2021 12:32

Come on Cisco decent price and you can have a chunk of a key strategic asset in the space!Private wirelessDavidson also said that Cisco is pursuing private wireless.For example, Cisco was part of the collaboration to deliver a private 5G network for the Department of Defense.RELATED: Federated Wireless kicks off 5G testbed for DoDFederated Wireless was the prime contractor for the CBRS-enabled private 5G wireless network, with partners AWS, Cisco, JMA, Vectrus, Perspecta Labs and Capstone Partners.In addition to the DoD project, Cisco is helping various enterprises around the world to build their own private wireless networks.https://www.fiercewireless.com/private-wireless/cisco-gets-5g-action-including-5g-private-wireless

[kooba] 11/3/2021 12:25

Disappointing one of the smaller holdings as it seems to have a way forward.https://oilmanmagazine.com/article/a-venture-backed-startups-plan-to-bring-an-end-to-routine-aerial-pipeline-patrol/

[spectoacc] 05/3/2021 09:15

Still time to SPAC or float Federated in a bubble market, but it's getting tight.

[bobonumber1] 03/3/2021 14:26

https://www.satellitetoday.com/imagery-and-sensing/2021/02/08/orbital-sidekick-finalizes-constellation-plans/

[spectoacc] 25/2/2021 06:56

Can't say the chart looks healthy - surely not a retest of the 20p low?

Thought the market had popped the day before yesterday, but the bubble is still going - still time to SPAC Federated, would make all the difference & more.