Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Allied Minds Plc LSE:ALM London Ordinary Share GB00BLRLH124 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 13.85 10.05 12.65 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Financial 1.5 -16.2 -6.0 - 34

Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

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Thanks @kooba. ALM my largest (now 2nd largest) holding, so it's good to have a debate.

"A key feature of Federated's SAS is that it is the only FCC authorised company with a fully deployed Environmental Sensing Capability as required by the FCC. This has allowed Federated to operate unabated, providing a significant competitive advantage."

But that needs to remain the case. Amazon, Azure, US Govnt - there's a lot of potential, but will that +500% revenue target (from a low base) be achieved?

Federated's 5G angle about the only hot sector ALM exposed to.

(On last funding round point - strongly suspect the fact Temasek stayed out meant ALM - with all their influence over Federated - wanted to not pay too high a price for more. Give others a bit of dilution. That doesn't explain why Temasek didn't invest, but does explain why at same level).

Yes all valid especially on costs, and yes it has become somewhat binary on Federated now, things like orbital look interesting but are very small holdings. Unfortunately the company had a wide range of early stage investments that was trimmed back to the few we have now..rather a shame the hydrogen play wasn't kept on, but they have certainly managed to dodge hot areas!The danger with running Federated on a tight budget, the AM CEO is Chair (which might conflict ) is that it does not move to industry dominance in what might be a fairly commoditised industry. They are not, whether solely due to CVD19 ? hitting revenue projections so there is no evidence of their positioning gaining traction, sure the upside could be pretty big if they manage to build customer base but its not showing yet. Again pointing out the last round was on same terms as last few years is not showing the company has ability to attract a higher value as they build out. Best hope is there is a land grab in the space and there is a battle to take it out be honest.Certainly the best chance of getting in final pay out in the range you hope for i reckon.
1. Fair comment. What they said is:

"Allied Minds is considering a small funding round to allow Spin to identify and secure commercial partners for its product, expertise and intellectual property in 2021. The contemplated round is expected to be at a significantly reduced valuation for the company and be dilutive to non-participants from Spin's existing investor base. While this is disappointing, a down-round financing is not uncommon in early venture capital companies and the Board is hopeful that this will allow for an opportunity to generate a higher net value for shareholders upon exit. "

On re-reading, agree it's quite possible they won't partake, so heavy dilution.

2. Overheads need to fall further, I agree, and the funding rounds for the remaining 3 decent ones need to be approaching final funding rounds - can't be annual events, or ALM will indeed run out of cash. Note over $3m is annual listing costs, so my guess is a move to AIM, as they've hinted

3. Yes, probably fair to assume one of the remaining ones will fail, but only needs one (Federated) to pay out reasonably, and another as bonus. The bar isn't high, & V-C multiples are rarely less than real multiples of carry value

4. No chance it'll last, total bubble. But reason for ALM to be floating/selling things with actual revenue/on actual multiples, rather than eg a DoorDash. Mind you - wish they'd had a DoorDash :)

5. Short term, absolutely. I'm judging them on their "2-3 years", and don't see how they could afford to go much beyond that.

I'd add downside is limited - are at a discount, chances of everything failing after this length of time slim, still have ample cash. [Edit - I'd take Edison's valuation as the valuation now, and be looking for quite a bit more after 2 years, but with the prospect of not getting back much less than 30p if things went badly - or say 15p if went really badly].

1They have supported spin for over 10 years of their original investments they put more good money in only 6 months ago and now substantial write down coming..i think they are teeing up that they wont put more in which leaves huge dilution or trade sale i guess.2Over half their cash needed to support overheads on 2-3 year timetable so not exactly rolling in it or in a position to hold their corner in future rounds which leaves them exposed to unfavourable terms or heavy dilution.3See above but agreed would be difficult to see no up rounds, having said that Spin was making good progress in the summer when they put in more money at previous same value and in the OCT update so things can change very negatively very fast in AM world it would seem. Also federated still same value on last raise as two years previous so not achieving valuation up lifts as it progresses.Federated last rounds were ahead of big uplifts in revenue...this has not materialised.4Tech is still hot and there are lots of easy list SPACs around valuations are already toppy ...might not last.5 i stand by.i do not see any short term value crystallising event this company serially disappoints and charges the earth to mismanage it.
Thanks @kooba, all interesting stuff.

I'd counter with:

1. Spin not likely to be zero - they'll support it

2. They have the cash to support/take part in all the up-rounds - but it ought to focus their minds on costs over the next "2-3 years". Cash burn/expenses always been far too high

3. The up-round valuation increases will counter some of Spin write-off

4. ...Accepting that that's all an accounting exercise until they actually sell/float something, but I'd hope eg BridgeComm and Federated to go for significantly more than last funding round

5. "But in a world of super returns in technology sectors they seem to have managed to have narrowed down their holdings to some disappointing dogs, missing all the right sectors." With that I agree wholeheartedly, but caveated by thinking it's in the price. Was tongue-in-cheek about a return to £3.50 (or £7!) but c.60-80p doesn't seem unreasonable - even without a crazy tech market - in their 2-3 years. Other than the unfortunate Spin, has been some decent progress in 2020 elsewhere.

Edison update today..not been particularly reliable on its numbers earlier this year! But certainly teeing up a huge write off on Spin..if zero then NAV goes from previous 63p to 43p ...for some reason I'm not reading the update as that positive as this was one of their two larger holdings..the other apart from federated dont add up to much . So the Spin ..get that all their holdings doing fine and should be up rounds apart from one but that wipes 20p off NAV...all going swimmingly then !!As to whether they have the leverage to influence up rounds on other holdings or get stuffed by new investors coming in we'll have to see. But in a world of super returns in technology sectors they seem to have managed to have narrowed down their holdings to some disappointing dogs, missing all the right sectors.Such a tail of woe and 100sM down the drain.Edison comment..nb this is paid for promotional research so worse case scenarios are pretty baked in ...amusing they say 43p nav would underpin the share price of 32p when they have traded at 40-50% discount recently.Also the cash is depleting by about $500k a month.In its strategic update, management highlighted robust commercial progress across the majority of Allied Minds' portfolio in FY20 (notably at Federated Wireless, BridgeComm and Orbital Sidekick), expected to be reflected by multiple funding rounds in FY21. Spin Memory was the exception, where, although technical progress has been made, six to nine months of commercial progress was lost with the closure of its foundry due to COVID-19. Together with the unexpected loss of a government bid, management now anticipates a down round for Spin Memory in FY21 at a 'significantly reduced valuation'. With estimated parent cash of US$20.4m at year end, Allied Minds remains sufficiently capitalised. As a floor, our estimate of parent cash (6.2p) plus our estimate for Federated Wireless (23.9p fully diluted) underpins the current share price (32.3p at close on 6 January 2021). Even entirely setting aside Spin Memory, Allied Minds' remaining holdings plus parent cash total 43.1p.
Gone back through the RNS, the BridgeComm write-up is really positive, repeated below. Federated and Orbital positive also, Spark small but good. All expected to have up-rounds.

But Spin clearly going to be a near write-off, certainly heavy dilution for any not putting the cash in to keep it going.

Like the talk of "..Venture capital-like returns", and "..Compelling risk and time adjusted total shareholder returns..". But guessing those compelling returns aren't from the last ALM fundraise (about £3.50/share from memory) nor from the highs of nearly 7 quid. :)

"BridgeComm Inc. (BridgeComm)

BridgeComm is developing high-speed optical wireless communications to provide fast, secure, enterprise-grade broadband service for space, terrestrial and 5G connectivity. BridgeComm's newest technology is unique and IP protected which enables one-to-many communications via optical wireless offering efficient communication to satellites, planes and land-based networks enabling 5G equivalent performance. The technology promises higher throughput over longer distances with added security than what is available today. The technology also has the ability to solve the "last mile connectivity" challenge for 5G networks.

On 15 January 2020, Allied Minds announced the next stage in BridgeComm's relationship with Boeing HorizonX whereby the two companies were collaboratively pioneering the development of BridgeComm's new technology for terrestrial, airborne and space systems. Together, BridgeComm and Boeing are bidding on several US government contracts requiring optical communications as they look to commercialise the development work achieved to date. It is expected that this process will lead to first revenue from the newly developed technology in 2021.

On 28 September 2020, Allied Minds announced that BridgeComm partnered with Nokia to jointly develop high-speed optical communications to facilitate faster deployment of 5G networks. The focus of the work with Nokia is to utilise optical communications to solve the "well known last mile connectivity" problem prevalent in the Fixed Wireless industry.

BridgeComm will need to seek additional financing to further fund its next stage of development work. Allied Minds currently owns 62.92% of BridgeComm and expects that if the company continues to achieve its planned key milestones, it will be in a position to attract its next financing at an upround (increased valuation). The $4.5 million convertible bridge invested by Boeing HorizonX and Allied Minds will convert into the next round of financing."

Looking to sell up and get of the stock market with minimal spending.It is all down to how much value that can realise..
Reads generally positive to me - $24m of cash, next BridgeComm fund raise will be an up-round, Federated revenue target +500% in 2021 and targeting another up-round. Spin seems the main negative, 9 month delay to chip testing.

"The Board currently believes that if the portfolio was liquidated in the near-term, it would likely be at a significant discount to their last funding round valuations and thus to the detriment of shareholders. It believes the best way to fully realise the potential value of the portfolio will be through future exits which require more meaningful progress and investment at each of the companies."

Progress slower than I'd have hoped, but only needs one float (likely Federated).

Federated failed to attract funding from most of its investors at the last funding round and was propped up by ALM.

Now spin needs cash, which will be at a discount to last funding and propped up by ALM.

If portfolio sold now, it would be at a significant discount to prior funding rounds.

Overheads continue at an excessive level.

I was watching this to look for a re-entry, but have now put my running shoes on and will leg it.

Good luck.

Delisting on the cards
You know it's not going to be the RNS you want when the first thing they do is mention Hawkeye - again.

Generally positive, but "best interests of shareholders" = "best interests of management". Giving themselves a pat on the back for reducing management costs, when those costs were/are so inflated.

"2-3 years", if it was full wind-up in that time, I'd take that. But what have they been doing for all those fees?


"The Board recognises the significant cost of being a listed company and remains focused on how such costs could be reduced. "

A move to AIM perhaps.

"The Board recognises the significant cost of being a listed company and remains focused on how such costs could be reduced".
Very fair points you raise.

i know it's only a tiny amount of capital by their standards however i feel it is a bit of positive news for the share holders.

patshares1 - not to talk against my own book here but Temasek are no better or worse than the average investor in the market. They have their fair share of disasters. It could be said they are more random than an investment house; not only is it other people's money but the other people whose money it is don't even have the opportunity to withdraw funds.
GIC are also a co investor in federated wireless, but they opted out of the last funding round.
GIC own 8% of ALM. They are the Singapore investment trust. A government owned company that manages Singapore's sovereign wealth fund.
Just in case anybody is unaware Temasek is the investment vehicle of the government of Singapore.
you can be assured very thourgh due diligence has been applied before they invested.
This might be extremely good news medium to long term.

SAFE: Simple Agreement for Future Equity.

They generally tell you if its an up round.

However i view it as positive that the fund raise is led by a larger investor.

No position.

Personally I only calculate value based on Federated & Spin, so any others that are still going are a plus! :)
Good to see very serious investor leading the round and that Allied not committing too much new money ...unfortunately though as soon as they invest $1 it turns into 50c with how the market values their ability!!No indication of whether this is and up or down round or what percentage of the business Allied Minds shareholders own after the raise.So as with a company that doesn't like to keep its shareholders informed it's difficult to know if this is good news or not !!
And another:

"Allied Minds plc

Orbital Sidekick Series A Financing

Allied Minds plc (LSE: ALM, "the Group"), the IP commercialisation company focused on early stage technology businesses, announces that its portfolio company, Orbital Sidekick, Inc., has conditionally secured $16.0 million in a Series A Preferred financing round led by Temasek, an investment company headquartered in Singapore. Round participants also include other new investors and existing investors Allied Minds, committing $2.5 million (including conversion of its SAFE), and 11.2 Capital.

Proceeds from this financing will allow Orbital Sidekick to focus on scaling its business and growing its sales pipeline to more rapidly bring its products to market and enable it to launch two additional advanced hyperspectral imaging satellites to support its customers. "

They seem useful in the sector but no idea of scale of potential revenue or how the partnership works or when anything rolls out.
That's Tesco :)
Every little helps !
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