Allied Minds Share Discussion Threads

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 27/1/2020 09:51

after div I'm luckily only down 10 odd % but this seems to have a lot more scope to fall...

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 27/1/2020 09:50

fuk sakes well im out

[flyfisher] 27/1/2020 08:51

Specto,

You seem to place a lot of faith in CRS, yet the great majority of their portfolio has recently been a disaster. Why use their figures ?

[spectoacc] 27/1/2020 06:56

By all means message it to me, thanks. I've been using CRS's statements, perhaps now more valid with their placee on the Board. I reckon post-divi, CRS paid about current s/p, ie 60p initial purchases (to c.6%), went up to c.17% at much lower prices, take 12.6p off the average. But that's finger-in-air.

CRS reckon just the one investment, plus parent co cash, is more than the current mkt cap of ALM. A debate about how much of the cash will go over the time it takes the co to sell everything.

Agree on the smaller/minor stuff, can discount it IMO.

[frazboy] 26/1/2020 22:25

Specto,

You're right on CA - their effective buying price is around 50p when you adjust for the fact they've been holding their shares for around 6 months, and, for the dividend.

In trying to value the company I've used the valuations of the last funding rounds, and, allowed a safety margin (they didn't actually get the value implied during the last funding round for Hawkeye). I've only valued the 3 obvious assets and assumed they are sold off over the next 3 years - it could be that there are hidden gems in the other 3, but I don't see why, in a base case scenario, you would give them more than a nominal value? Once you discount the value and take overheads into account then I fail to see how CA will get a 'good' return. Just my opinion. Happy to fire my spreadsheet over to you?

Fraz

[flyfisher] 25/1/2020 08:22

Very similar to my views frazboy, but note that the rest are largely irrelevant as they only amount to 3p p/s.

ALM is essentially a 3 company portfolio, the issue is what prices they can ultimately achieve and on what timescale. If they achieve values similar to last funding round, we will do ok, if one gets a good premium we will do well.

The corporate costs here are staggering for a small portfolio, they need further culling, along with the bloated salaries and bonus structure.

CRS were trying to put a trusted man and a non exec in place to do this, but for some reason were not fully supported by other institutions, hence we have a compromise in the management structure.

[frazboy] 24/1/2020 20:30

Having looked at this a lot more carefully this afternoon/evening, i would openly question how CRS expect to make a good return? It seems to me that Federated Wireless and Spin Memory could turn out to be good investments and there's a few pence per share in Bridgecomm but the rest...? Lady luck will have to be blowing strongly. So, it's (hopefully) a good investment in the 30s but why CRS paid ~62p I don't know. Time will tell. Have a good weekend all.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 16:31

that was directed at Typo, not you...:)

[frazboy] 24/1/2020 16:07

maybe, itsnotmeitsyou!

it's Mr Market doing what Mr Market does. Some days he's happy, some days he's not. if the company realises just one more asset sale in the next 6 months, then this looks like it'll make a decent return, as folk will see a trend, confidence of future returns will rise, and there will probably beanother 10p+ SD. downside is limited in the short/medium term - there is after all best part of 20p cash per share on the books.

best of luck!

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 15:55

do you have a screw loose?

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 15:40

they obviously need shares - bit of a tree shake imo

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 15:38

nah I reckon it's mms playing with the bid

[swinsco] 24/1/2020 15:34

Something not right with this dog.. I'm out. Good luck with those that can stay with it.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 15:13

and another load at c.39p

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 12:00

bought more at c 40peasy 10-15% at these lvls

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 10:46

lol some idiots trying to short at these lvls..

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/1/2020 10:06

don't worry it's just the mm fishing for shares. will close up today imo

[believer2] 24/1/2020 10:01

We have Federated Spin & Bridgesat - the Sp does not reflect the NAV - it did not rise 12p on announcement of SD so should not have been slammed so yesterday - WHAT I don’t understand on this site is people’s pleasure in seeing a fall for holders - if you are not brave enough to declare your holdings and experience why make stupid unnecessary comments - let’s see your portfolio Mr Big Shot

[believer2] 24/1/2020 10:01

We have Federated Spin & Bridgesat - the Sp does not reflect the NAV - it did not rise 12p on announcement of SD so should not have been slammed so yesterday - WHAT I don’t understand on this site is people’s please in seeing a fall for holders - if you are not brave enough to declare your holdings and experience why make stupid unnecessary comments - let’s see your portfolio Mr Big Shot

[swinsco] 24/1/2020 09:52

This dog has great potential but Woodford selling has destroyed sentiment. I've bought and see a possible low of 39 in which I'll buy more.

[iamgreat1] 24/1/2020 09:41

35p lads soon