Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 15/8/2016 08:28

Dipped my toe in

[homerdude] 12/8/2016 14:56

Good buy at these levels.

[homerdude] 12/8/2016 14:56

Netflix, lol.

[wllmherk] 12/8/2016 14:13

bought in today at 144p with costs. Thought results were very good.


wllm

[netflix2015] 11/8/2016 17:24

Whenever monty and his friend abarclay are about then we all know this has some way NORTH to go! £1.80+ by the end of 2016!

[abarclay] 11/8/2016 16:43

any fool can lend money so this is all very unspectacular, its making sure you dont lose your head when it gets sticky, this will test 60p in a year imho

[montyhedge] 11/8/2016 16:41

CT Tier ratio 11, ok but not brilliant, in my view.

[montyhedge] 11/8/2016 16:39

Small banks going to struggle, once the big boys especially Lloyds get going and reclaim market share.

[nigelmoat] 11/8/2016 16:30

Well that was a pretty shabby days performance for a fair set of results.

[solarno lopez] 11/8/2016 11:00

A perfect double bottom on todays chart

[steptoes yard] 11/8/2016 10:45

That is of course discounting the possibility of consolidation in the sector which cannot be ruled out.

[cc2014] 11/8/2016 10:04

Well thought out Future Financier.

I think the situation is actually much simpler. Every time we get a bad headline the price gets bashed. This is happening across the Bank, Construction and House building sector.

Only all that news is already in the price and I think some forget that. Over the next few days the price comes back. Take a look at RBS and LGEN for the evidence.
RBS has fully recovered the drop from results day. LGEN is on it's way.

[future financier] 11/8/2016 09:49

Lets consider the "headline" risks here:
1. Reduction in Base rate - even if this reduced NIM without dilution (i.e. 100% loss of income, with no reduction in cost of funds) then NIM would reduce from 3.6% to 3.35% and profits might decline by 14%. Reality is less than half this.
2. BTL - roughly 40% of business. Current indications are that this market is already bouncing back after the artificially low new business in April following the March splurge to beat the SDLT surcharge. So lets assume this reduces by 25% - again unrealistically pessimistic.

Even if ALD were to go ex growth and taking account of above it will be generating over £60m post tax and essentially all available for dividend. So if we put £50m on a divi yield of 5% (again ridiculously pessimistic) you get a valuation of £1000 million - i.e. more than double current valuation.

The sector is being held down by people who do not understand its dynamics - it will rebound eventually just need to be patient.

[return_of_the_apeman] 11/8/2016 09:26

Good point Cc2014

[cc2014] 11/8/2016 09:21

ALD need 150-151 to stay in the FTSE 250 by the end of August, based on all other share prices not moving

[abarclay] 11/8/2016 09:13

FTSE 250 relegation certain now

[mrphil] 11/8/2016 09:11

They pay 1.09% on business savings accounts and that hasn't changed in the last couple of years.

[zho] 11/8/2016 09:08

"H2 will be weak because BTL has died and ..."

Is that right? Investec said this yesterday, when issuing a buy note on OSB:

"Gordon noted that OneSavings is almost 'pure play' on the buy-to-let market, and with this in mind, said the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showing sustained strength in the buy-to-let re-mortgage market throughout the second quarter of 2016 should be taken as "clear, positive confirmation"."

[bonio10000] 11/8/2016 09:06

BTL has only died because the changes to the rules meant everyone piled in during Q1.

When other assets are yielding nothing - people will invest in property still.

[rmillaree] 11/8/2016 09:00

"H2 will be weak because BTL has died and housing market has died and NIM will take a hit because of lower base rates"

Silly question but do ALD need to keep adding new business at similar rates to deliver decent figures Surely all their current customers aren't going to up and leave in a flash even if the level of new business moderates considerably.

As ever the problem with Financial institutions its always about what we are not being told (Northern Rock certainly crashed and burned quickly when they couldn't get cheap finance). From a practical perspective i know loads of bods parking excess business funds wads with ALD (due to convenience) that happy to get a 1.5% return (prolly 1% now) and surely ALD can make good dosh from this.

To me the shareprice seems to be factoring in a sharp decline in future profits which there seems to be no indications of whatsoever - hey ho not a company i would ever treble up on though.

[abarclay] 11/8/2016 08:45

hold tight endure pain?

[cc2014] 11/8/2016 08:36

It seems MM's must have taken a large sell order pre-market as 85% of o and nt trades are buys but price is still falling. Just have to be patient