Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 06/7/2016 20:59

That's a very interesting article from Numis as effectively it suggests the market thinks they are going to write off a whole load of loans.

Doesn't seem very likely to me as the devaluation of the pound is going to create jobs and exports

[zeus19] 06/7/2016 20:22

UK bank Aldermore's 'buy' rating and target price of 212p has been reiterated by Numis despite the market forecasting a recession materially worse than the credit crisis.Numis said it has already downgraded its forecasts to reflect a mild recession with its impairment charge increased to 59 basis points (bps) in 2018 from the 26bps reported last year."For Aldermore to reach break-even we estimate impairment would need to increase to 208bps (8x the 2015 charge in bps) and to get to the net tangible assets to the current share price, impairment would need to increase to 716bps (28x the 2015 charge in bps).""For this scenario to validate the current market valuation, Aldermore needs to report a £96m loss in 2018 and thereafter, never generate a sustainable economic profit."Consequently, Numis believes the market price implies a high probability of insolvency. Numis said the insolvency would have to come from impairment as the Bank of England has put in place liquidity measures that Aldermore would have access to if needed."We currently forecast a mild technical recession in H1 2018 as investment, employment and household incomes gradually fall reducing consumer expenditure leading to a 5-10% nominal decline in house prices," Numis added.

[deanroberthunt] 06/7/2016 18:23

it's not my opinion I just posted on the thread as it's a relevant article...

don't confuse the two....does that make sense or do I need to simplify it further for you? please advise.

[isaready] 06/7/2016 17:54

why would you post an article saying Numis target, which may or may not mean anything, when on the other hand you say could see sub this and that.

I see Morgan Stan and Norges buying up.

It kinda contradicts you. That's why.

[deanroberthunt] 06/7/2016 16:55

why, don't you think it's relevant!

[isaready] 06/7/2016 16:34

why have you posted this

[deanroberthunt] 06/7/2016 15:30

Broker Forecast - Numis issues a broker note on Aldermore Group PLC

6 July 2016 | 14:30pm

StockMarketWire.com - Numis today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Aldermore Group PLC [LON:ALD] and set its price target at 212p.

[deanroberthunt] 06/7/2016 09:57

halved in weeks

[deanroberthunt] 06/7/2016 07:47

could see sub £1 today

[cc2014] 05/7/2016 13:40

I've been watching L2 for the last hour and a half. It seems there is a bot sell program running which keeps moving down if it doesn't get filled fast enough.

Against this someone is soaking it up but has worked out if they are patient they can get the stock at a good price.

I also see alot of 'o' trades, which are all buys which seem to be supporting the price atm

Edit: not much point in thinking about it too deep - MM's will move it up once their clients have collected enough cheap stock

[smokybenchod] 05/7/2016 13:17

very odd price movement based on trades which are mostly buys. Surely overdone although if it breaks 110 not sure what the bottom is... could well be 80-90p

[deanroberthunt] 05/7/2016 12:38

breaking down, can see 80-90p here.

[cc2014] 05/7/2016 11:53

hmm. and some more at 113.4

Now sit back and wait 6 months for the dust to clear

[cc2014] 05/7/2016 09:29

Bought my second tranche of these today at 116.3, just below what the director paid. I find director buying is always a good sign

[smokybenchod] 04/7/2016 15:06

He appears to have timed that rather well.

[gucci] 04/7/2016 15:04

Glyn Jones, Chairman, bought 100,000 shares in the company on the 30th June 2016 at a price of 118.88p. The Director now holds 881,488 shares.

[tyranosaurus] 04/7/2016 13:20

Rubberbullets

"CT tax cut to under 15%"

Osbourne aims to cut rate to 15%

NOTHING LIKE THE SAME THING

[solarno lopez] 04/7/2016 11:56

corporation tax ( CT ) as revealed today by George Osborne who aims to cut the rate to 15%

[liquidkid] 04/7/2016 11:12

rubberbung, Rather cryptic ramping there wtf does "CT tax cut to under 15%" mean?

[betelgeuse1] 04/7/2016 08:22

ALD on a screamer, Yes!

Numis say this

Following better than expected results for 2015 we are upgrading our EPS estimate for this year by 5% to 26.9p from 25.7p. The upgrade would have been more but for adjustments to the number of shares in issue and the group tax charge. As a result of these our EPS estimate for next year falls 2% to 32.0p from 32.7p. Excluding the impact of shares and tax our 2017 estimates would have increased modestly.

So EPS of 26.9p this year and 32.7p next year

PER of 3.5

GONNA DOUBLE. IM IN :P

[rubberbullets] 04/7/2016 08:17

200p looks attainable

[rubberbullets] 04/7/2016 08:15

CT tax cut to under 15% benefits BTL owners with limited companies

This could double

[netflix2015] 01/7/2016 16:37

abarclay, I agree, it's just going to take time before they let it go to between £1.40 and £1.60 I believe.