Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[eddyeagle1979] 26/5/2016 11:40

What's behind the 6% rise today??

[harry vederci] 13/5/2016 19:30

oversold yes, especially in the light of that Q1 report, but 'sentiment' always prevails

[hutch_pod] 13/5/2016 19:15

I always thought most simply SHAW is the most diversified hence best bet in face of BTL changes. Hasn't helped in recently though.

[uhound] 13/5/2016 17:08

Like SHAW & OSB looks on the face of it oversold and I would be tempted to get in. However with the BTL market being hit big time now I fear these will go lower.
Everyone is underestimating the effects the government's tax changes are going to have on landlords/investors, indeed the housing market in general.

Sentiment always drives share prices more so than profits etc.

[hor_fra] 13/5/2016 15:51

Well, shorted or not something is weird about this share... It falls so easily, and can't even keep up for two days after what is by all accounts a great trading update. Am I missing something here? Any views?

[hutch_pod] 12/5/2016 17:41

Ah ok thanks Celeritas, makes sense.

[aishah] 12/5/2016 17:27

#747 - I also saw that earlier having sorted by percentage. Trying to make sense of the data - might be worth giving Euroclear a call.

[celeritas] 12/5/2016 17:08

Sorry Hutch don't know why I worded it like that. Obviously you just buy the stock.

glg partners were the last reported short on ald, they were down to .36% on the 25/9/15

Latest spreadsheet in the box top right.

[woodcutter] 12/5/2016 16:50

If you take the time to research the Euroclear figures for the month of april they do look a little odd to say the least. You can compile the data by highest to lowest percentage and stocks like rexam are indicating a 32% short position and signet jewellers at 35% with Hastings also at 32% which i would tend to think is complete nonsense.

aimho woody

[hutch_pod] 12/5/2016 15:54

Hi on the Morgan Stanley holding RNS of 11 May, it says it has right of recall over 23.5m shares (6.84%). I always presumed this was lent to a party to short sell. Sorry Celeritas, can you explain why it would be lent for a long position? I might just be being slow..

[celeritas] 12/5/2016 14:22

Stock can be loaned for short positions, doesn't mean it has been.

[calahan] 12/5/2016 14:11

Here's some data for info extracted from charts and the Monthly Stock Loan (MSL) data on the Euroclear website:-

Month - MSL - Monthly Price Range

Apr 15 - 3.84 - 232-247p
May 15 - 2.09 - 231-267p
Jun 15 - 2.93 - 271-308p
Jul 15 - 6.20 - 247-316p
Aug 15 - 6.53 - 256-303p
Sep 15 - 9.50 - 275-318p
Oct 15 - 10.70 - 253-282p
Nov 15 - 10.32 - 233-287p
Dec 15 - 10.30 - 202-237p
Jan 16 - 10.69 - 181-229p
Feb 16 - 11.20 - 178-217p
Mar 16 - 11.66 - 199-231p
Apr 16 - 12.70 - 180-210p

I have no valid opinion on the accuracy (or not) of the Euroclear data, and simply posting some basic data I gathered for myself earlier in case others find it useful. (disclosure - I have ~6k ALD shares I am planning to hold for long term)

[woodcutter] 12/5/2016 13:23

could it be that the euroclear figures are the amount of stock available for loan but not necessarily mean it's all being loaned.

There are a number of metrics around the challenger banks that make them attractive; per's, price to book value, divi's in many cases etc. Nevertheless the continued low interest rates and poor yields on savings, bonds etc. make them an attractive investment. Loans are still relatively inexpensive and i don't see any significant fall off in SME nor property lending.

I have a small property portfolio developed over many years and i'm witnessing younger friends of mine in there late 50's entering the BTL market for the first time. Their reasoning is simple returns on savings investments are just too poor and they aren't familar with the markets and see them as high risk. It's also an opportunity to help their offsprings get on the property ladder too.

A couple of my banking friends who work with the larger banks on IT and legal are also positive on the challenger banks due to no legacy issues and slicker efficient operations. Larger banks are over-staffed, their IT systems are dated and they've surplus branches which they need to close, there's a whole range of issues that make them uncompetitive. Challengers will gradually move in and take much of the retail business that conventional banks currently hold. Look at the SME lending growth.

For those who have patience the sector will be very rewarding imv. Once we witness the first acquisition the sp's will rise significantly and at current prices that acquisition may not be too far away.

aimho woody

[masurenguy] 12/5/2016 12:55

"And we can conclude that 30% of the free float is an increasing short at 12.7%"

Loan stock reported on Euroclear does not correlate in anyway with outstanding short positions on a stock. You are obviously an idiot but if you chose to believe such nonsense, and base any investment decisions on it, then it is your funeral.

[liquidkid] 12/5/2016 12:50

And we can conclude that 30% of the free float is an increasing short at 12.7%

[woodcutter] 12/5/2016 12:48

well i'm impressed with todays update and continue to hold. The paymeny of a divi will most likely help the share price for sure. i've built quite a holding across a number of challenger banks now. At some point there'll be consolidation in order to provide larger scale as individual bank growth slows.

in respect of shorting i've always used short tracker and it's reasonably reliable from what i can see, although they are clear the figures are not guarenteed. Despite this every other site i've looked at has a similar non-guarentee too. I'd be vey surprised if there were 12% of the shares shorted. Those figures are not representative of the short tracker site.

aimho

woody

[masurenguy] 12/5/2016 12:41

The FCA do not operate the shorttracker website - Castellian Capital does. Their data is however derived from the FCA who are the official regulator. Anyway that is trivia - the reality is that reported short positions on Aldermore are currently less than 0.5% as I've previously stated

[liquidkid] 12/5/2016 12:13

Oh yes there are!

Yesus guy,
The FCA and ST are the same thing:

Notice! The Short Interest Tracker is based on data sourced wholly from the FCA's daily short positions report.

That is highlighted in RED in a RED box in case you didn't read it.

So your statement is unvalidated.

[masurenguy] 12/5/2016 12:03

There are not 12.7% collective short positions on Aldermore. That neither correlates with reality of reported short positions to the regulator (the FCA) who has no reported short positions above 0.5% nor does the Short Tracker website.

[liquidkid] 12/5/2016 11:31

Well why what who WTF is it then?
You only have to look back a few posts to see that this figure is increasing.
Care to substantiate YOUR claim that 'there is no way that circa 30% (of the free float)' are shorted. link and references required.

[masurenguy] 12/5/2016 11:06

Thanks AISHAH but the figures quoted on Euroclear do not constitute short positions. In the first place circa 60% of the stock is held by 10 shareholders including private equity investor AnaCap (who hold circa 40%) and around 9 institutions hold another 20%. Those stakes constitute a certain restraint on liquidity and there is no way that circa 30% of the remaining shares are being shorted. Both the regulator (FCA) and Short Interest Tracker show no short holding above 0.5%.

[aishah] 12/5/2016 10:16

Aldermore shown at 12.7%