Aj Bell Share Discussion Threads

[0rient] 07/12/2018 08:05

hahaha..come back in three years time & lets see. Remember this post 🖕🏻

[jon123] 07/12/2018 08:00

yeah i think it'll do badly if i'm honest but u pays ur money or in my case i didn't pay any money lol

[spob] 07/12/2018 07:56

The Barlclays exodus must have inflated returns for AJB

IPO investors here = lambs to the slaughter

imho of course

[edmondj] 07/12/2018 07:25

Wasn't Royal Mail massively over-subscribed?

[0rient] 07/12/2018 07:24

Massively oversubscribed..i only received 1/10th of what i applied for!
The missus fared better getting 40% of her applied amount although a smaller amount.

[edmondj] 07/12/2018 07:20

Benjamin Graham's advice, how flotations tend to be timed in the bets interests of vendors, comes to mind on this one. Why would they want all the hassle of a plc, reporting to shareholders and with extra spotlight on a business potentially exposed in more challenging economic times? No new money is being raised for investment; the motive is clearly for owner-shareholders to liquidate what they can. It would seem they are hedging their bets, strong-growth financial statements and Hargreaves Lansdown type ratings, can persist for UK stockbrokers/wealth managers.

[trytotakeiteasy] 03/12/2018 12:31

cube.investments/aj-bell-ipo-quality-and-growth/

[philanderer] 03/12/2018 00:30

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Will AJ Bell - the firm that helps investors buy shares - be a winning investment itself?

[someuwin] 02/12/2018 21:45

IC View

Post-admission, management expects to pay an interim dividend equivalent to 40 per cent of the prior year’s total payment and a final dividend of 65 per cent of full-year post-tax profits. Surplus capital – held above regulatory requirements – may also be returned to shareholders. Taking the mid-point of the indicated price range values the group on an enterprise value of 31 times post-tax profits at September 2018. That is below Hargreaves Lansdown, at around 40 times historic profits for 2018, a discount partly justified by the latter’s dominant market share and superior revenue margin. However, given the longer-term trends towards self-directed investment, we think AJ Bell could be worth considering for those willing to take a longer-term view.

[dsct] 02/12/2018 19:57

As an AJ Bell customer for quite a few years now, I'm interested in this IPO, and have been DMOR with regards to the news/analysis and the prospectus.

Still early in my reading of the prospectus, and I know it's time-limited now, having to make any decision by this Wednesday (5pm).

My notes so far (from memory, so perhaps not accurate):

1) 65% earning to be paid as dividends. This would also suit existing holders who will still be substantial holders post-IPO, for a year at least.

2) Monitor lock-in periods, 180-day, year, 2 year etc. to see if any dumping just after these expire.

3) PE of 22-25 v Hargreaves 33, so approx. 30-33% lower, albeit as a smaller competitor and stockmarket newcomer.

4) Potential scale of economies - See item 10) below

5) Very pleased as a customer, so personal impressions good.

6) Got Year End results out quickly, for inclusion in the prospectus - doubt these will be so soon next year.

7) No new money being raised for company, as IPO just for existing holders to realize some cash - I prefer IPOs to be for raising funds for company (expansion, debt repayment etc.).

8) Limited subscription (Customers and Institutions) could mean possible initial spike, although this wasn't the case with AML (Aston Martin Lagonda), although that was generally thought to be overpriced - Is AJB overpriced too?

9) Possible new clients just because it's now a listed company and is therefore perceived to be more secure/safe to invest with or have funds in.

10) As a simple projection I've used the average increase in revenue and costs over last 3 years (as in prospectus). This year (ended 30/09/19) will have an increased operating profit margin of 34.1% (Last 3 years - 26.0%, 28.7% & 31.6%). EPS will be 7.1p giving a PE of 21.68-23.37 based upon the IPO guide range.

As you can see from my notes, I'm bullish about the IPO (but have taken on board the bear arguments) and have had a figure in mind to invest here since the IPO was first mentioned. I have to decided if I invest fully now, or buy half at the IPO and then possibly invest the other half post-IPO.

[blueliner] 01/12/2018 19:29

According to Investors Champion the AJ Bell projected p/e should investors agree is far lower than Hargreaves current rating.
Amongst others I eventually moved from Barclays Self Destruct and chose AJ Bell. Not all my holdings are tied up here though.
Most brokers have benefited as pi's migrated from Barclays, so their respective new client figures have been boosted.

Have yet to make my mind up whether to commit, time is short and the timing of the float couldn't be worse.

[belgraviaboy] 01/12/2018 13:32

I wonder how much of the growth is 'one offs'.

In particular the effective collapse of Barclays Stockbrokers where customers have left in droves.

Also the impact of DB pension transfers where low yields have boosted payouts.

Look's a little pricy to me....

[zho] 01/12/2018 10:45

AJ Bell float mentioned.

£1.54-1.66 per share, or £626m-$675m.

Which is -- brace yourself -- 27.6x to 29.8x PE on the September 2018 year end.

To boil it down, AJ's been given a Hargreaves Lansdown multiple in spite of it only being #4 in the market.

Which I guess reflects gangbusters growth. Doubled assets under management over the past three years, but still only 200k customers.

Anyway, looks rich given the (obvious) uncertainties but if you want a nippier, faster growing Hargreaves I guess it's not a bad idea to have a look.

[someuwin] 01/12/2018 10:40

Not much interest in this IPO I guess.

[someuwin] 29/11/2018 08:55

Total number of shares will be 406,516,420

(Priced between 154p and 166p)


From the prospectus...

11. DIVIDEND POLICY
AJ Bell’s interim and final dividends totalled £14.6 million (35.5 pence per share) in respect of FY2018, together with a further special dividend of £8.0 million (19.5 pence per share).


Looks like they've got the decimal point in the wrong place to me. Surely it should be 3.5p and 1.9p?

[jon123] 28/11/2018 23:20

looking at the factsheet they are a bit of a cash cow not sure y there floating to be honest if they don't need any new money

[someuwin] 28/11/2018 23:12

I haven't researched it much yet - just wondering what others think?

[riverman77] 28/11/2018 22:51

I read on ft alpahville that this was being priced on a multiple of around 26! Think I'll stay clear of this one, but thanks for starting the thread.

[someuwin] 28/11/2018 22:00

Prospectus:



Factsheet:



FAQs:

[someuwin] 28/11/2018 21:48

Once the shares go live (7th December) I'll replace the header with charts etc.

[someuwin] 28/11/2018 21:47

New thread for thoughts on the upcoming AJ Bell IPO.