Airsprung Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 15/12/2009 11:51

have a fairly big holding here.
Bought another 10k today

[cockneyrebel] 12/12/2009 11:51

Been having a look through the numbers a bit more closely and doing some comparisons.

H1 results last week show £473k pbt on sales of £23.1m.

H1 2007 (nearest pre recession year to compare with for 'normal' earnings) had £419K pbt on sales of £24.9m. Despite the recession in H1 they have squeezed out more profit from less sales than their best year.

In H2 2007 they had sales of £25m in H2 producing £1.02m pre tax profit - 2.4 times that achieved in H1. If they achieved that same sort of ratio flat sales in H2 this year would produce 2.9p eps in H2 and 4.1p for the year.

I'm not saying they'll do this but 1.2p eps in H1 was a fair bit more than I expected which was a tad over 1p. The forecast of 3.1p does look rather conservative tho.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2009 20:57

Nice one Hoodless:




"Airsprung is trading at a 27% discount to its tangible net asset of £9.6m. We therefore initiate with a BUY recommendation".

The only thing I'd add is those assets haven't been revalued for 13 years and so are worth a lot more than that.

FWD PE of just 7 and they seem to be ahead too so may well be a lot lower. Growing, niles below NTAV, growing divi and been about for 140 years so they've been there, seen it and done it! :-)

CR

[liarspoker] 10/12/2009 10:55

GI - reckon IDH could be the next ABC. PEG of about .25, p/e of about 15, directors exercising options and being sold to institutions. Similar story. :O)

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2009 10:41

I think they are going to retain the land and develop it themselves or in a joint venture - would think it's something to do when the economy picks up. It's around 7 acres so it would be pretty sizeable.

I'd estimate they could get nearly 1p a share in earnings from it when done.

CR

[jacobjohn7] 10/12/2009 09:17

do they intend selling this land with planning permission, or building this park themselves and leasing, or passing onto a contractor to develop.

Cheers
John

[greek islander] 10/12/2009 08:47

Yes and guess the recovery in the property market will increase the value of land assets. One can see that this company is well placed. However at the moment we are merely talking to ourselves and unless we attract in new investors then it may be months before the share price starts to improve though as I have said in the past on this BB and as you have pointed out, lots of potential for a doubling of the share price and though it may take a general upturn in the economy to really push it, it seems a matter of time. Really good investment and more than happy that I doubled my stake over the last few months.

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2009 08:32

The profit this year will be higher than in 2007 Greek-I by the look of it - these were well over 60p in 2007. Have a look at how sharp they rose too - these were set to do fantastically before the recession struck and even with that recession they've sailed through imo.

CR

[wskill] 10/12/2009 08:30

Looks good to me well done to the directors for a fine set of results

[greek islander] 10/12/2009 08:27

Yes really good defensive stock APG - just awaiting a retail upturn to really take advantage.

Cheap as chips!

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2009 08:07

I see them going up Elmfield, not many debt free businesses growing profits and cash like this and paying a divi - and that's through a recession - wait till we get a recovery :-)

Results understated as ever - recon Lisanti habe been on the pi55 last time and forgot himself.

Must be the best performance from a retail facing business I can think of over the past year except MTC perhaps.

CR

[elmfield] 10/12/2009 08:03

do we see this going back up to 50pish? having sold a half way down nice to see a rise to 40p+, anyway suppose settle for a rising dividend as we wait.

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2009 07:39

Cracking results and that's trough a recession :-)

1.2p eps is a good 10% more than I expected as posted above. Stronger H2 should do a fair bit better than 2p now imo.

Cash up £900k in the last 6 months to £2m.

Gonna be paying the year end divi again that should be raised im o.

Only downside was the rise in the pension def but to be honest that's been plummeting from near £8m a few years ago and after the year markets have had it's no surprise - but with £12m property, planning for a 7 acre business park and £2m cash they could kill that deficit in one swift hit if they wanted at minimal effect on the co - rental from the business park could pay it.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 09/12/2009 17:25

Tomorrow morning jj7.

9th last year, 10th this year - sorry if I confused above at all.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/12/2009 18:55

Excellent ones jaconjohn7.

Just to run through it they have property still on the books at 1996's value of £8.5m - will still say £8.5m or there abouts at these results but has to be worth £12m+, especially as they have planning on 7 acres of it now.

I'll be surprised if there's an interim divi as they only started paying a divi at the finals last year - there will be a slight increase in the final divi imo.

I'd hope for a bit more than 1p eps Thurs.

I expect a bit more than 2p eps in H2 this year to meet the forecasts of 3.4p for the year.

I think the pension deficit will be much the same, might be a tad higher.

I think they'll have no debt yet again but won't be surprised if cashflow is not quite as good as usual as I think they'll have been paying out to restock for Christmas having got invetories down.

All in all I expect the results to sound positive while the outlook will be the usual cautious, 'let's not get over excited' sort of underplayed thing that they usually are, in fact the last results were the most exciteable I've ever heard the co sound so that gives you a clue how staid they normally are :-).

Can't see there being any nasty shocks after they have just started paying a divi anyway.

CR

[greek islander] 08/12/2009 18:48

This now penny share could double overnight if the results and cash position are strong, the forecast for next year is as positive as I expect it to be and the market is in positive mood. Bit of a Sleeper!

[jacobjohn7] 01/12/2009 09:22

what kind of results do you anticipate for 9th CR?
cheers
John

[greek islander] 28/11/2009 00:08

Can't be bad!

[cockneyrebel] 27/11/2009 17:11

Get ready to wet yourself Greek Islander :-)



John Lewis sees 32% jump in furniture sales

CR

[cockneyrebel] 26/11/2009 18:47

MMs can monkey with small caps easier than with large caps on SETs.

Seen some outrageous falls today on volume of sales that just doesn't justify the fall.

Got a few on my buy list now.

Many of the fallers in the Small Caps are where mm's want stock - had a good run and the book is net short - they use the fall to scare a few out and balance their position. Those are the ones that rally fast tho - mm's marking up quick to gain on the cheaply bought stock.

Might go shopping tomorrow afternoon in the big LSE, Pre-Christmas One Day Sale.

Strong Black Friday Shopping data in the US tomorrow and a good non farm payroll next week and I think I'll b kicking myself not cleaning up out there today.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 25/11/2009 11:32

Looking forward to the results - was in town yesterday - there are bed sellers everywhere.



SleepRight at Carpetright, Dreams, Homestore and More, Argos all selling Beds and one of those stores has changed (think it's Harveys) which is now Bensons for Beds. That's just one strip in one local retail park.

Tesco selling APG Beds too now.

There's the acquisition of Hush a Bye to kick in an the royalty payments starting from the US.

All rather exciting for Dec 9th imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 24/11/2009 15:06

Results a fortnight today - think there will be some buying anead of them.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 17/11/2009 15:58

a 20K buy @ 33p when the ask was 30p - 10% over the market price to get 20k - right as well, why should these Johnny Come Lately's get the shares cheap? :-)

CR