Airea Share Discussion Threads

[junior21] 27/6/2019 23:24

Thanks for sharing Rhomboid. This has been on my watchlist for a while now and the drop to below 52p was too good ignore.

Am hoping this is more of a temporary blip rather than anything structurally unsound.

The timing of the CEO sale doesn’t look good, but am willing to overlook that as unfortunate rather than something more sinister. Time will tell as to whether this is naivety or not.

[rhomboid] 27/6/2019 17:58

For completeness here is a copy of a summary I put on another site/Twitter


I’ve spoken to the company & can say I’m now poorer but happy

1 It’s the last 6 weeks, that has seen orders are being deferred for delivery by 1-2 months & not cancelled
2 Order Bank is higher than prior year
3 It’s smaller ad hoc orders that are affected not project work which is ahead YoY
4 July & August are typically 25% of annual turnover & look good from an order book basis
5 New product lines are being received v well..but orders are longer term typically & are going into order bank
6 reasons for slippage are either customer cashflow ..or job itself being deferred
7 Brexit stock build is being unwound
8 Margins are not declining
9 New sales people are on board & bringing in orders
10 Investment in the business is continuing

I’m continuing to hold & will buy more as funds arise

[bda3490] 27/6/2019 11:43

The briefness of the update makes it likely more bad news

[garbetklb] 27/6/2019 10:52

I agree totally with tiswas about running a diversified portfolio. AIEA is one on my big 4 positions, so a 30% drop has cost me about 2% overall - obviously I'm disappointed, but it's the sort of hit that one must accept, or outsource investment in Investment Trusts.

FWIW, I bought a few more this morning, but my timing wasn't perfect!

[steve3sandal] 27/6/2019 10:51

Tiswas, same hit, same rationale, think there is still value at 50p for top ups

[cheshire man] 27/6/2019 10:50

Well I was right, never fall in love with a stock comes to mind,let's hope it recovers for my remaining small holding

Cheshire Man
8 Apr '19 - 09:36 - 525 of 564 Edit
0 0 0
Made me nervous too illiswilgig and took a good few off the table on the news, let's see how it pans out from here

[tiswas] 27/6/2019 10:29

If it is a temporary setback then Halstead should be in like a shot with an offer of 50% over today's share price

If Halstead offer so much as a penny over the price that the CEO sold for then I will take it.

I thought that this was one of my more "solid" investments. It has reminded me to run the very diversified portfolio that I am currently running as I do not have the confidence in my abilities to run a concentrated one. A 0.5% hit to the portfolio is not a nice one but it could have been a lot worse.

[bda3490] 27/6/2019 09:46

The dividend statement should be interesting. The fact it’s not mentioned- to me- means it’s going down. Having bought the CEO’s shares must have cost cash.

The signs are not good. Perhaps James Halstead will come back at 35p

[bda3490] 27/6/2019 09:45

The dividend statement should be interesting. The fact it’s not mentioned- to me- means it’s going down. Having bought the CEO’s shares must have cost cash.

The signs are not good. Perhaps James Halstead will come back at 35p

[greyingsurfer] 27/6/2019 08:29

Certainly not a share to trade. The volumes are tiny. It's made significant moves on v low volume over the past weeks on no news, so no surprise it's down a lot on a minor profit warning. I agree with pireric, this is overdone, and it will settle higher. This will probably look like a good buying or top up opportunity, in time.

[pireric] 27/6/2019 08:25

Second glance, the first half comparator was tough: +13%, and the second half comparator is much easier given the FY number was just over 8%, so probably fair to assume the business still grows y/y for the full year given 1H only slightly below in revenue terms. Could still do 5-7% growth for the full year, even with the weaker 1H, so decided to buy the dip

[someuwin] 27/6/2019 08:25

Uninvestable now after the real reason the CEO sold out 2 months back becomes apparent.

[2breakout] 27/6/2019 08:22

Pretty good that this share is untradeable, otherwise might have been in these. A couple of times tried to buy only 5k when this was moving and it was impossible, so in the same way thought whats the point as it would be the same selling.

[irenekent] 27/6/2019 08:21

Profit warning. Just what we didn't need. Another victim of May's delays.

[pireric] 27/6/2019 08:19

Pretty much the definition of frustrating, so looking for revenue growth maybe 3% lower y/y. It was a tough comparator to be fair. Sub 50p looks quite a big overreaction though IMO, and personally expect it to settle into a 55-60 range in the coming days

"Despite a very strong order book and first quarter and with continued growth from our export markets we will announce revenue slightly down and a lower operating profit for the half year compared with the corresponding period in 2018. This is due to significantly tougher conditions during the second quarter.

Like many UK businesses the economic headwinds are against us and we are experiencing a high level of market uncertainty; however, the business is well positioned to continue to prosper despite this continued economic uncertainty."

[pireric] 24/6/2019 10:54

Starting to feel like it's getting a bit more momentum today, ask up to over 74.5 on my screen.

[carcosa] 22/6/2019 15:30

The company gets a mention in this nicely written blog post

[pireric] 06/6/2019 14:20

Share Rhomboids view that this has already laid the groundwork to be at worst a high single digit revenue growth business with modest margin expansion on top

[shanklin] 17/5/2019 08:11

Looks like my buy yesterday was appallingly timed. Added more at 66.7p.

[cockerhoop] 16/5/2019 22:49

Can't speak for Rhomboid but my understanding from the AGM was that the rationale for the new loom was not completely about capacity but the operational issues involved with mixing volume production runs along with sample production on the same loom necciatating configuration changes.

[shanklin] 16/5/2019 16:15

rhomboid

Per your comment...

"Mega Loom No 2 is 6-12 months away from ordering...ample room on site ..currently 60-70% of capacity utilisation"

...

(1) Any idea please as to what the lead time is between ordering a new loom and it being ready to produce Burmatex at full throttle?

(2) If we call that lead time n months, am I correct in think that AIEA expect to increase capacity utilisation from 60-70% of capacity --> 100% of capacity in circa 6+n - 12+n months?


Assuming yes to (2), that revenues are proportionate to capacity utilisation, and say n is 6, this implies:
- a minimum of a 43% revenue increase over the next 18 months
- a maximum of a 67% revenue increase over the next 12 months

Whichever of these it is, and assuming the impact on PBT would be much more significant, this seems very decent for a company on a historic P/E of 8.6.

Thoughts welcome, obviously some idea as to n would be helpful.

All the best, Martin

[someuwin] 13/5/2019 09:26

As normal, difficult to buy.

[our haven] 10/5/2019 19:54

Rhomboid I add my thanks.