Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[lbo] 11/4/2018 10:34

Next you will be telling me that the GAMA aviation fall in share price was an overreaction too? Maybe this should merge and then they hide more holes in the accounts for another few years! ;)

[goodpick] 11/4/2018 10:25

10 Apr '18 - 22:43 - 506 of 527
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Goodpick - I believe you have only posted on one company (not Air Partner) in the last three years or so. What prompted you to post on Air Partner now?


Sleepy, I thought I had something useful to say on AIR and as a CFO myself thought that I could share my own judgement on this. I used to post more on these boards but haven't due to time.

[melody9999] 11/4/2018 10:22

OK LBO - your call

[lbo] 11/4/2018 10:08

Actually just looking at the fundamentals and the eps forecasts it only warrants a PE of 10 and that's not factoring in discount for the accounting scandal or loss of confidence in management or the hit to next years numbers due to the costs of this mess "costs and fees associated with the review will be expensed in the financial year ended 31st January 2019". And let's not forget the risk of some sort of fines and lawsuits yet. So the share price fall was in no way an overreaction but the share price was overvalued especially when you consider the very competitive markets it is in and the volatility it can experience in profits in a downturn.

[melody9999] 11/4/2018 09:56

LBO

"Management and shareholders interests are not aligned and nothing has changed after the RNS."

You may be right - except that the share price has halved which is an overreaction.

I'm not trying yo score points .... just suggest close your short and cut losses cos you are swimming against the tide .... at least in the short term.

[mw8156] 11/4/2018 09:54

suspect that much of the rise in the 'accounting hole' might be due to the need to bring in PWC and lawyers; their statement might have included an estimate of charges to be incurred in employing them.

[lbo] 11/4/2018 09:23

What happens when travel operators or companies like monarch go bust? If they do business with Air Partner what happens to all that deferred income and rising account receivables that is not Jet card business on the Air Partner books? Interesting to see since the first RNS the accounting hole has now crept up from 3.3m to 4m and the investigation is ongoing. Also the cash on balance sheet has again fallen in today's RNS since the interims. Taking a view now on this company with the current management remaining in place is a gamble not an investment. They have been and still are are incentivised to just inflate short term profits and take their high salaries, bonuses and exercise and sell their share options without having any real beneficial interest in the ownership of the business. Management and shareholders interests are not aligned and nothing has changed after the RNS. We have all seen this dividend trick before to try to pay off shareholders but suppose if they had not done it then even the PI dividend shareholders would have bailed out. Smells of desperation and some might say another sign management is not very prudent considering the investigation is still ongoing. Will be interesting to see if any institution shareholders are bailing and it's PIs who get left holding the can here.

[goodpick] 11/4/2018 09:12

Happy with the 5.5% + yield achieved on these at this price and expect these to stabilise around £1.10 to £1.20 in the near future and then will go up based on performance and stability post results.

An announcement that they have replaced the CFO will also help comfort investors and stabilise the share price though the process of finding the right person takes time.

[lbo] 11/4/2018 09:11

Not an accident that lasts 7 years!

[melody9999] 11/4/2018 09:09

LBO - to use your analogy, even the safest drivers have an accident at some point.

In the meantime you may tell me the driver is now completely incapable, that the weather has changed, that the motor is about to blow up, that the world is about to end, and I should not get in the car.

But I am happy that this is not a write off, and after repairs the car will continue down the road.

So for transparency I have opened up a small long position... for transparanecy are you still short?

[trident5] 11/4/2018 08:36

CFO had 10% of his receivables irrecoverable for several years and couldnt see it!

[edmondj] 11/4/2018 08:28

If you look at his history, the AIM-listed tour operator where he was previously FD went bust although that might have been due to factors wider than financial control:

"A source said that All Leisure’s management team led by chairman Roger Allard had ‘worked tirelessly’ to save the company and was now working closely with the CAA to mitigate the impact of the collapse."

hxxp://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/64565/all-leisure-group-ceases-trading

[lbo] 11/4/2018 08:27

Really? You trust management after they missed the accounting hole for 7 years? And now you trust them to know what's going when that clearly shows they did not. Management have zero credibility left and thus have no credibility in leading the investigation into it. That is the red line flaw with the RNS. The drunk has been left driving the car and you are happy to climb in the passenger seat?

[melody9999] 11/4/2018 08:26

LBO - recopmmend you stick to the facts in the RNS and close your short, rather than trying to stoke hype and speculation

[goodpick] 11/4/2018 08:20

A company is not going to send a generally detailed and "stabilizing" RNS like that one if they were not assured. If there were any more big unexpected surprises or problems after that management's credibility would be shot.

This is comprehensive and most of the adjustments to the numbers will be made to prior year and won't affect cash or the day to day operations of the company.

I bought a tranch yesterday and more this morning as this should partly correct itself and then catch up with itself over the next 6 to 12 months.

trident5 completely agree that acquisitions can destroy value especially when companies overpay, but do you feel Air Partner's specific acquisitions have been bad moves ?

[lbo] 11/4/2018 08:18

Also they talk about board appointed investigators? What about independent investigations by the authorities? Or criminal investigations? Have these begun also? Is the chain of evidence being preserved or could documents be shredded?

[pvb] 11/4/2018 08:15

exclusive-air-partner-what-the-company-told-its-staff-but-has-not-fessed-up-to-investors-about-the-33-million-black-hole

So now it's a £33m "black hole"?

[lbo] 11/4/2018 08:11

And still no official response to what Tom and the whistleblower have claimed? The comments about dividend payments to shareholders nearly sound like a bribe to look the other way from the money that's gone missing?"Whilst our review is ongoing, we will not comment on rumour or speculation, and shareholders should expect official statements to be issued to recognised Regulatory Information Service providers as appropriate, ensuring full compliance with regulatory obligations"https://www.shareprophets.com/views/35240/exclusive-air-partner-what-the-company-told-its-staff-but-has-not-fessed-up-to-investors-about-the-33-million-black-hole

[lbo] 11/4/2018 08:05

It's rising and they not finished investigating "At this stage, we believe that the total cumulative impact arising between the financial years ended 31 July 2011 and 31 January 2018 will not exceed GBP4m"

[hybrasil] 11/4/2018 07:38

Very happy with yesterday's purchase. That statement is comprehensive
That should put a floor under the price. Presumably some head or heads will have to roll. I'm however going to buy some more

[lbo] 11/4/2018 06:56

As has been said the Air Partner Annual audit would have been relatively straight forward. We are not talking masses of revenues and figures to have to be checked and verified so for it to have gone unnoticed for so long raises many many questions and would actually point to a cover up and fraud. Also the very vague RNS itself points to that there is a lot more going on as they still are investigating the issues.

[trident5] 10/4/2018 22:57

Goodpick, I think most people here have perceived this as a good company, but if they've been playing the figures, it might not be.

I'm also concerned about the pointless share split last year, which just seems to fool some people into thinking a pizza cut into more parts is bigger than a one cut into fewer parts.

It's also been quite acquisitive lately - and most acquisitions destroy shareholder value.

Also, none of this is difficult. Checking and auditing c£40m of receivables should have been bread and butter for any half competent FD and auditor.

It's going to hurt their reputation - would you deposit money with them under this cloud?