Agronomics Share Discussion Threads

[1chrism] 03/12/2024 11:21

Peter, normally I regard your voice as the educative factor but unless your are privvy to a source that is beyond collective ken of the advfn board I will take this speculation as humourous rather than a total abdication of your senses.I'd rather hope Mellon might consider averaging down given this recent news:https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/candy-backed-metals-exploration-swoops-on-condor-gold-13264464

[peterrr3] 03/12/2024 10:20

Just as long as it's not Mellon.

[1chrism] 03/12/2024 10:16

Maybe not quite yet on the exit...

[cyberbub] 02/12/2024 21:17

QuePassa, thanks for the warning. I see on the company website that Shellbay (owned by Mellon) takes a 15% share of any portfolio value uplift every year... I suppose you could argue that it keeps JM's interests aligned etc, but that does seem an excessive %age, is that normal for this type of fund??

Also the adviser is Beaumont Cornish who have a very poor reputation in many quarters.

Turned me off quite a bit, but I'm still watching. They do seem to have genuine investments, many of which seem promising.

[peterrr3] 02/12/2024 17:26

I think that must be Blackrock completing their exit. Hopefully a credible purchaser.

[1chrism] 02/12/2024 10:25

CULT Food Science (Canada), ANICs only publicly listed competitor on the planet getting a nice write up in the FT. CULT also invest in ANIC portfolio company, California Cultured.https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=600-202411270700CANADANWCANADAPR_C9019-1

[quepassa] 02/12/2024 07:49

cyber,

In addition to looking at the portfolio and funding, it is very important in my view to consider carefully how the fund is run, who is running it, the ownership structure of both the fund and its advisers/managers as well the fee structure of the fund.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[peterrr3] 02/12/2024 07:28

Funding to build the plant beyond pilot size, whether bank, industry buy-in or funding round is lacking. Governments have provided plenty of assistance with grants and soft loans but they are not sufficient to enter production at scale. Regulatory standardisation and approvals are also more ad hoc or in progress than in place.

[cyberbub] 01/12/2024 20:32

There seems to be an interesting uptick in trading volumes over the last few months?

[cyberbub] 01/12/2024 16:07

Funding from who? You mean generally in the industry? Or funding from ANIC to maintain its holding %ages?

[peterrr3] 01/12/2024 15:42

Have a trawl through this thread, you will see a good mix of opinions on both sides of the fence. IMO the technology is universally impressive and still improving, which doesn't mean that in all cases it can be commercial at scale. What's currently lacking is the funding to find out.

[1chrism] 28/11/2024 22:08

I do agree with your estimation that ANIC is suffering from investor fatigue (I feel it also). However, I think this trouble is macro and not ANIC related. I dont agree that the company misuses the RNS, and if you have the capacity/ability, do outline your reasoning.I also think that if you are an ANIC shareholder with even a fingerpad on the pulse you are entirely subscribed to the concept of delay, be that regulatory, financial or otherwise.

[quepassa] 28/11/2024 16:10

no need to be so confrontational and defensive.

you misunderstood my post and please read it again

i expect failed investments, as i mentioned before, and in some ways there are fewer in Agronomics than one should have perhaps expected in a fund of start-ups and early-stage investments.

i was addressing your over-generalised statement that all RNS announcements are material events and I illustrated that they are not.

fifty RNS's in less than a year will bring about investor fatigue and diminish investor interest in them.

good luck and let's hope it works out for everybody's sake.

But one thing is for sure - the current share price and its mighty fall tell a sorry tale - and it seems to me that something major has to change to improve investor sentiment and investor confidence in Agronomics. Something more than this ongoing surfeit of RNS's.

And this is especially so at a time when many other AIM-listed specialist funds have already started moving ahead significantly.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[peterrr3] 28/11/2024 15:32

If one fail funded 3 years ago by a VC fund is the best you can come up with I don't need to say anything. Try that theory on virtually every listed fund, tech or otherwise.I expect about 1/2 of the portfolio to fail on scale but that still wouldn't diminish my investment decision at the price I am in as the few winners will continue to produce relevant news whether ending up in a RNS or not. Almost none of the RNS had detail I didn't already knew, including the demise of Vitro and a couple of others.

[quepassa] 28/11/2024 12:41

not really.

because a proportion of jam-tomorrow RNS announcements don't end up gelling.

how could they as a lot of investments are start-ups in a new space and de facto a significant proportion of early-stage investments are destined to failure. That's the nature of investing in new companies in a new sector.

For example on 19/2/2020, Agronomics heralded by RNS a further $1m investment in VitroLabs accompanied by a blurb of how excited they were. In today's RNS, they state that they have written their investment in VitroLabs down to zero given funding uncertainties.

we even saw a major price-sensitive RNS announcement of the Share BuyBack Programme which was not executed.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[peterrr3] 28/11/2024 11:58

True QP, however each is an actual material event given the market cap and, although jam tomorrow they do show progress towards scale up. If each of the portfolio were listed they would have put out exactly the same ones.

[quepassa] 28/11/2024 11:31

using your theory , the share price would be four pounds not four pence.


the Company has issued an astonishing FIFTY RNS announcements just this year - the vast majority of which are NON-REGULATORY - ie pure news (aka jam-tomorrow).


and the only action has been concertedly DOWNWARDS.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[peterrr3] 28/11/2024 11:15

lol AIM wised up?? Most movers are still based on the old tricks. Otherwise where would the traders get any action and placements occur for most of the basket cases sitting there? Jam tomorrow is still seen as jam.

[quepassa] 28/11/2024 10:55

the small-cap and AIM market has wised up in recent times.

the old tricks of levitating share prices by frequent news releases and announcements has passed its sell-by date. investors are nowadays much more discerning about the quality of news releases and more interested in concrete actions and events rather than glossy words and jam-tomorrow announcements.


I did a google/youtube search to see if there were any new presentations or talks since the new interim ceo took over but the google search came back with no result.

with Anthony Chow, you have to give him credit that he was very visible on the CellAg circuit and attended/presented at events non-stop.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[peterrr3] 28/11/2024 09:48

I suppose it would be too much to expect the ghost that walks CEO to buy a few token shares? Or maybe some of the other board members sucking on the nipple but doing jack.

[peterrr3] 28/11/2024 07:46

NAV as expected. I think a bit of a lost opportunity to highlight the steady progress of a number of other portfolio companies and on the regulatory front. The acceptance of product as non GMO removes a major hurdle in a number of key jurisdictions.

[davebowler] 28/11/2024 07:33

Canaccord Genuity view Approaching 70% discount to NAV Agronomics has released its NAV update as of 30 September 2024, showing a slight reduction in NAV per share to 15.73p (June 2024: 16.42p). Net assets totalled £158m, including nearly £12m in cash. The NAV decline primarily reflects foreign exchange (FX) losses and valuation adjustments, with a significant portion of investments held in foreign currencies. Key reductions include: • £5.1m unrealised FX loss from weaker USD, EUR and AUD against GBP. • £0.9m valuation reduction for Solar Foods, is now marked to market postNasdaq Growth Mkt Finland listing. • £0.42m write-down of VitroLabs Inc due to funding uncertainties. • £0.4m cash reduction for operating costs. Since August 2023, 11 portfolio companies (51% of NAV) have raised ~US$300m, demonstrating portfolio strength. Despite a ~70% discount to NAV (share price ~4p), we believe this remains largely unjustified. We reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged target price of 17.5p.

[nanopayments] 27/11/2024 08:15

The total addressable market is big, so hopefully room for a few competitors. Costs, which are in part a function of scalability will also be key. All-G seem to be in a strong position: “We believe we have the world’s most efficient strain for bovine lactoferrin production,” Pacas says when asked about costs. “We already have yields at pilot scale that would result in COGS [cost of goods sold] much, much lower than today’s lactoferrin prices. And we are continuing to optimise. We have multiple global CMO [contract manufacturing] facilities for scalability, so we’re confident we can meet both current demand and future growth.”
www.greenqueen.com.hk/all-g-foods-precision-fermentation-lactoferrin-china-approval/

[peterrr3] 27/11/2024 08:01

It is big news Chris, but AllG doesn't have a monopoly on the IP so it is also who can get into production fastest as well as the regulatory approvals. Hopefully this can put a floor on the share price.