AGI Share Discussion Threads

[kinghorm23] 07/10/2011 13:13

FD

Why dont you buy more then ?

[fairdeal2008] 07/10/2011 13:11

They are four things GS:

1. cash of 9p per share that at current burn rates will last for 5 years;
2. tax shield of 72million euros;
3. agi-350 lead programme, treaing significant unmet need, applying for orphan status;
4. ongoing clinical evaluation programme of other compounds.

I can't understand the massive discount to cash, that is illogical and the tax shield value (however prudent you calculate this) makes this situation all the more illogical.

But they are being very hush hush on agi-350 until orphan status secured, protecting IP - and I think people would like more clarity.

As MR Buffet says - you pay a high price for certainty!!

That said we can be certain as to cash pile and the discount against that!

Bon chance GS!

imho

[giant steps] 07/10/2011 13:01

That chart suggests they have taken a huge historical hit.

FD, are they now just a one-trick product ?

[fairdeal2008] 07/10/2011 13:01

Company raised money at much higher levels, hence why they only have 67 million shares in issue and have cash of 9p per share compared to the 3.375p share price.

imho please research this yourself

[fairdeal2008] 07/10/2011 13:00

Five year chart tells a story:

[kinghorm23] 07/10/2011 12:47

Can get quotes of 2 brokers, selftrade is 10k max, the other is offering
stock at 3.4p and was offering at 3.36p so they have some to offer, took
a little stock today and been buying on dips for the last 10 trading days.

[chrisis33] 07/10/2011 12:46

5Ks worth meant 5000 shares - should have been clearer.

[chrisis33] 07/10/2011 12:44

Maurillac - exactly why I've been investing here. I can't seem to get a quote to buy more than 5Ks worth now. It really tightens up with the slightest of buying interest.

[robward] 07/10/2011 12:21

same here !!

[maurillac] 07/10/2011 12:19

lets hope that agi is getting noticed by a few more pi`s now. as far as aim stocks go it looks like a relatively safe place to put some cash in these troubled times. very limited downside and good potential upside .. which is why i bought a while back !
gla
m

[someuwin] 07/10/2011 11:01

Maximum buy only 10,000 shares £350 worth - lol.

[chrisis33] 07/10/2011 10:55

Thanks Fairdeal. The 60K today was my buy this morning. Been dropping a few profits from elsewhere into this one. I think 8p+ would be a fair valuation before AGI-350 news, so have been following my convictions. Time will tell if it's a good decision or not.

[fairdeal2008] 07/10/2011 10:06

Here is the cash calc again:

Cash and short-term deposits at 30 June 2011 of $9.3 million

Add $300,000 patent sale value

Deduct operating expenses ($900,000/6* July-Sept) -$450,000

Net cash end of September: $9.15million

$ to £ = 1.55

$9.15mn/1.55 = £5.903mn

£5.903mn/67,412,783 shares = 8.8p per share current cash.

Current share price 3.13 / cash 8.8p

Means mkt cap at 37.5% of current cash at bank.

Hope that helps - been good for me to properly check my calcs too at end of september

[fairdeal2008] 07/10/2011 10:02

chrisis33

I have no idea how agi-350 will turn out, although all looks positive thus far from rns.

But my point is its low cash burn and £6mn in the back or approx 9p with only 67million shares in issue.

If just a few investors got behind the share and were buying the impact would be very material and would correct imho this undervaluation...

But there you are... People will clammer for stock like crazed fools when the share price is 18,19,20p... but when 3.5p ooohhh caution is required...eh?

imho please dyor

[chrisis33] 07/10/2011 09:54

I quite agree Fairdeal - and your email summarises the opportunity very well IMO.

[fairdeal2008] 07/10/2011 09:41

well a decent rns on the lead programme would make this interesting as certasinly tightly coiled. From the interims:

-- The first six months of 2011 were dominated by the pre-clinical evaluation of AGI-350,, a novel presentation of an existing marketed drug which AGI is developing to treat a significant unmet medical need in the critical care setting.

-- AGI has completed preliminary development and in-vitro evaluation of a form and formulation of AGI-350 which is specifically designed to provide effective and efficient delivery of the drug to the lung.

-- AGI entered into a technology access agreement with Aerogen Ltd. to provide specialized aerosol technology for the administration and delivery of AGI-350 to ventilated patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) setting. This proprietary technology is being customized for use with AGI-350 in the target patient population and prototypes have been developed for pre-clinical evaluation.

-- Furthermore, AGI has initiated a pre-clinical programme for AGI-350 which is ongoing. A model of the target condition has been developed and is being employed to characterise AGI-350 and generate key proof of concept data to inform subsequent clinical development. Once this phase of evaluation is completed in H2 2011, AGI will consider the next steps for this programme, which may involve advancing the product into human trials.


---------------------

ps H2 ends 31 Dec so we are very close to news on agi-350 now.

imho dyor

[chrisis33] 06/10/2011 17:43

It's just at a silly-cheap price from what I can work out. I know no other with over 100% discount to cash in the bank, with no debt. Even after 2 years cash burn at the current rate as per the most recent news we have, they'll still be at about 100% dicount to cash in the bank.

[kinghorm23] 06/10/2011 16:20

Very illiquid, few sells cannot sell online, few buys like now and you
cannot buy online.

Potential is there for a spike if they issue good news..if of course..

[chrisis33] 06/10/2011 16:12

Added - holding about £6ks worth now.

[aimshares] 03/10/2011 21:02

A big pharma will licence there drugs or will do a takeover of Verona pharma listed on Aim.

[fairdeal2008] 02/10/2011 22:02

Thanks Graham

Buy when nobody wants the shares I my motto - thanks for reaffirming my confidence I am doing theright thing.

[fairdeal2008] 02/10/2011 21:38

Add cash of 6m or near 10p per share and just say 3p per share for ip means gross total of 24.5p. But that is gross again.

Then if agi 350 is exciting who knows where this would go. Imho