AGI Share Discussion Threads

[fairdeal2008] 29/9/2011 08:26

Now valued at 33% of cash at bank, with a low cash burn and cash for years. Also about to conclude pre-clinical lung disorder agi-350 and looking to start human trials in the short term.

But with £6million cash at bank (9p per share) and a market cap of £2million - it really is something of a sitter at the moment.


imho

[fairdeal2008] 19/9/2011 23:27

In any event hp Minster needed fundingto execute it's business plan hence why they agreed to be taken out

[fairdeal2008] 19/9/2011 23:12

Well to get to cash alone would be 9p so we don't hav to argue about ip at the moment... :-)

[hyper al] 19/9/2011 23:08

Fairdeal2008

not touching it then. You note how Summit publishes papers revealing all and has Patent protection, why's it not the same here?

[hugepants] 19/9/2011 23:07

Possibly £20million all in including £6mn cash, £4mn tax loss shield and £10mn for the programme IP?

I would value the programme IP at nil (its not even at phase 1 yet). Likewise the tax losses. I held Minster when it was taken out for the value of its cash. That's despite it having a couple of drugs far more advanced than AGI-350 and huge tax losses.

[fairdeal2008] 19/9/2011 23:03

We know very little - it is all being kept under wraps to protect commercial sensitivity hyper

[hyper al] 19/9/2011 22:48

What is the science behind AGI-350

[fairdeal2008] 19/9/2011 22:28

Just an extra note, quote from front page of company's own website:

AGI is a specialty pharmaceutical company which is focused on the development and commercialisation of differentiated specialty drug products to treat unmet medical needs, including conditions which qualify for Orphan drug status.

The Company's lead programme, AGI-350, is being developed to treat a significant unmet medical need in the critical care setting where effective and efficient delivery of the drug directly to the lung is required to treat a life-threatening, lung-related, condition.


And Davy update note:

[fairdeal2008] 19/9/2011 21:21

Just looking at the assets - mainly cash of 9p per share. Tax losses of $73million x 12.5% reduced Irish tax rate = 9p per share. IP for AGI350 and longstanding IP difficult to assess.

Tax losses fickle at best so say 4.5p, providing for underlying assets of around 13.5p, compared to the share price of 3.375p.

Then you have to consider the value of the portfolio, principally comprising of agi-350 targetting a critical unmet medical need relating to the lung.

This programme is coming to the end of pre-clinical trials and is entering a potential value generation phase for the company. This could see the company enter licensing talks and possibly a move into human clinical trials in the remainder of 2011. The company have not released specifics because they are applying for orphan drug status, providing enhanced patent protections and inidicating a potentially high value treatment. So my hunch is that agi-350 could be quite a high value opportunity.

With the share price languishing at just 35% of cash at bank, and just 23% of cash and tax losses estimated value, there is nothing in for the IP on AGI350.

There will come a point in my view when the serious undervaluation switches to an over valuation. From 3p to ??? is the question. But if core assets cash and tax loss estimate are worth 4x the current sp, how much will the share price be worth if a decent AGI350 comes along.

Possibly £20million all in including £6mn cash, £4mn tax loss shield and £10mn for the programme IP?

Just an estimate but a £20million cap would be 30p per share or 9x where we are today!!

Remember the company has plenty of cash so placing fears do not apply imho. And at such a low valuation downside share price risk is limited.

all imho please research this yourself.

[fracman2] 19/9/2011 18:48

Hello cps1959

I am only invested in three companies now snrp summ and rrl.

Was holding rgm but sold out. I have also been a holder here but too illiquid and that worries me.

Are you still in snrp?

Cheers

[cps1959] 19/9/2011 18:00

Managed to pick a tiny amount today (225k).

Really hard to buy in any volume 50k was the biggest I could do then the rest I had to get in 25k tranches. Didn't move up from 3.5p offer till my last trade, suprised it didn't react earlier.

This and Summit are nice pharmas to be holding with NEW my oil play and RGM my mining play.

[curlly] 19/9/2011 14:42

Wish i had some funds so i could buy more.

[fairdeal2008] 19/9/2011 14:34

Its incredibly tight I think. MMs have little stock and it is responding to a little net buying.

This is 3.5p per share and cash at bank is 9p per share. And thus nothing in for the IP or valuable tax losses.

imho - one of the cheapest stocks I have seen..

[curlly] 19/9/2011 14:28

Whats that all about?

[fracman2] 19/9/2011 11:16

Wonderful answer.

[fairdeal2008] 18/9/2011 21:06

Wonderful question. I have Both so can't decide!

[fracman2] 18/9/2011 19:01

fairdeal

Out of interest which is the better bet summit or agi?

both look very undervalued. I am backing summit but just curious.

cheers

[fairdeal2008] 16/9/2011 16:43

between 2.5p and 6p I believe

[wisteria2] 16/9/2011 16:02

What price did you jump in Fairdeal!

[fairdeal2008] 16/9/2011 14:08

And approaching end of agi350 programme pre-clinical work and could soon be entering human trials.

Yet still Market cap just over one third of cash at bank.

Severely undervalued IMHO and for obvious reasons. Even the historic tax losses are worth a multiple of the current cap... Potty

[fairdeal2008] 16/9/2011 14:04

Cash at bank £6million, and Market cap now £2.2million..... Potty

[fairdeal2008] 16/9/2011 14:01

Look at the chart:


Five year chart:

[fairdeal2008] 16/9/2011 13:56

CEO holds 15% and top 4 holders 55%

[hyper al] 16/9/2011 13:33

Yep, but who are the main shareholders and what percentage do they hold.

[fairdeal2008] 16/9/2011 09:08

Small free float hyper - hence it should get interesting when decent net buying comes in