African Med Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 22/7/2010 15:55

still think the Solanki situation, in the long term, plays right into the hands of the BOD & Harbinger. Harbinger have had a 3 yr timeline for their investment and i don't this blowing them of course. The Solanki situation aside, they are achieving some impressive cash generation already in the business & the affects of the recurring revenues from membership fees have yet to kick in but, they will keep inching up into a very nice reliable revenue stream. That's what matches Harbinger's investment targets

[stegrego] 22/7/2010 13:33

Yea - just had a brainwave that i needed to do a divide by 1.52 for the exchange rate.

Still, the price wasnt the point.

[mattjos] 22/7/2010 13:18

Harb's Sub is at 25p isn't it?

$2,400,000.4m / 6,111,111 shares = 39c /share or 25p on current exchange rates

[stegrego] 22/7/2010 12:57

Harbinger sub at nearly 40p per share.

Or am i missing something?


EDIT

had a small punt based on the new draw down, which presumably means things arent as bad as they seem.

[mattjos] 22/7/2010 12:32

One assumes that Harbinger would not have agreed to the move and it's announcement were they that unhappy with the overall situation.
Seems like a 'ship steadier' to me and that the business continues with or without the Doctor

[spectoacc] 22/7/2010 12:23

AMEI taking the opportunity to try to put more shares on Harbinger! As long as Harbinger continue to go along with it, it's a bullish sign..

Not a lot of detail in the RNS just released though; and no colour at all on Solanki situation.

[fillipe] 21/7/2010 23:43

Steg, I think Dr S must have been up to something pretty complex if they have to bring in forensic accountants to get to the bottom of whatever, so that probably means quite a wodge of wonga is not where it was expected to be.

Looking again at the rns's, you can't help a wry smile.....9th June Pres of Mozambique and a whole load of hoi poloi do the official opening.....9th July CEO, who probably showed all the vips around is suspended.

You could hardly make it up if you tried.

Putting the Drawdown aside, Harb wouldn't have to spend much to get over 50% and then go for the lot, or something suchlike.

f

[stegrego] 21/7/2010 20:53

Fears here are two or possibly three fold.

Firstly what Solanki has been up to.

Second what happens to his shares.

Thirdly and most importantly - how are Harbinger going to react to all this?

I cant see them taking it lying down, they are a hedge fund after all and in this to make money. Surely this is an opportunity (excuse) to either jump ship or more likely renegoiate the future buying prices downwards.

[spectoacc] 21/7/2010 15:36

Agreed; I'd like to see 20m hit the mkt if 18k goes through a penny below....

[fillipe] 21/7/2010 15:35

I should have added that, it looks as though if there are holders with more 15-20k of shares then they won't be easy to sell. Any largescale "forced selling" will soon see that 5p mentioned earlier - hence the drip-feeding of selling in recent days (5-10k lots). That's my reading things just now.

f

[fillipe] 21/7/2010 15:18

Mmmm.....someone baled a lump for 11p.

edit. Bid-ask now 11.5p/11.75p

f

[fillipe] 21/7/2010 15:02

Spec, am sure you're correct that the company can't do a jot about the shares Dr S has in a nominee company. Also that we desperately need some solid figures...and not just footfall. My feelings are that the figs are the problem now,

So far Harb have paid just under 19p average for their almost 42% of AMEI. their next Draw Down is at 27p, then 30p, then.....

But there is a formula for if the share price is below the DD price and with this they pay the same formula wonga but get more shares. The formula uses a 20 day VWAP component if the share price is below the DD price...it's a pretty clear agreement and it will be interesting to see what happens next!

f

[spectoacc] 21/7/2010 12:59

The further issues - & future issues - to Harbinger are at much higher prices. If I were them, I'd be renegotiating the price, particularly as AMEI's survival relies on Harbinger's support, & they put two lots to them just days before the news broke.

Fact remains that we need more info on what's actually gone on, how it affects trading/results/figs, and what happens to the 11% shareholding overhang (I don't share the view that the co can cancel the shares).

Could be a good buying opportunity if they get dumped for a few p.

[fillipe] 21/7/2010 11:57

20-06-2008. 5m shares issued at 0.1p

27-06-2008 Admission to AIM, raised £5.1m with a placing of 51m shares at 10p,

Then further issues...

f

[thebull3] 21/7/2010 11:20

I would love to get in below 10p, I think thats where the original placing took place. I'll feel much confident buying in around that level than previous levels 20-30p. I got stopped out at 21. My only holding that I put a stop on has so far done me favour.

[fillipe] 21/7/2010 10:10

I didn't see anything but selling @13p on L2 yesterday which then dropped to 12.5p. From my watching of L2 I've detected hardly any recent buying - there were 2x10k lots 16/7 @14p, but I couldn't see any buys after that. But there always appears to be stuff that never seems to show.

This a.m you could buy up to 25k on-line @12.25p....that was a firm offer. Actual sells are showing at 12p. I think the drift will carry on a little lower and will be halted by any +tive newsflow/ dir buying. Mkt cap is now £25m and they'll still have to be churning in some chunky sales and profit figures to justify that, imo.

f

[mattjos] 20/7/2010 21:20

you say that but, look what happened this pm when someone tried for a tiny £1k worth. .. this is being walked down, imo, to collect up the weak
Do you think Harbinger are going to walk away from this?
Suggest you have a read up on their investment philosophy and their investment track-record.
Painful as the 'on paper' situation may look at present, even to the bulk i took at 19 but, i've always had 2013 in mind on this one so let's see how the bod navigate this shall we. The chair is well versed in things 'African' & so i doubt he's losing much sleep

[thebull3] 20/7/2010 16:47

5p is my guess, mm's dont want to buy them, this will be pushed down drip by drip until further news, I'm sure longer term this will regain lost ground, its a good profitable business to be in if they get the right people on board!

[fillipe] 20/7/2010 16:33

My feelings also, Spec.

f

[spectoacc] 20/7/2010 16:00

We still have no idea of the quantum of the probs, so anything possible.

[fillipe] 20/7/2010 15:40

10/11p bid-ask, here we come?

[mattjos] 19/7/2010 00:55

why wait for the broker f/casts? some elementary research here gives you an idea on the numbers & the potential.
I'm sure the bod & Harbinger will sort the mess out .. they have a strong working relationship elsewhere, not just in amei.
I took a few more last week in the panic

[bobbieblock] 18/7/2010 23:51

No, haven't boughgt in yet - lack of funds. Aren't I glad. However this ticks many boxes - fast growth, in fontier territory, rapidly expanding sector, high margins, first mover advantage. Just a look on minesite.com and oilbarrel.com gives an idea how many mining companies, from tiddlers to huge multinationals are working in africa now. If AMEI can get over this big bump and build on the relationships it has as a company to compensate for the personal relationships that Solanki had then a very bright future indeed awaits over several years.

[fillipe] 18/7/2010 15:33

Bob, I think we need to see the finals to end Feb 2010...asap. That should give a more meaningful set of numbers in order to get an idea of just how much £££ business is actually being done. At the moment I don't see any brokers' forecasts anywhere....have you anything?

f

[bobbieblock] 18/7/2010 00:23

Fact is, the gross margins in the 2009 results was around 90%. If that is replicated throughout all the facilites then the share price will bounce back big style.