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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Aew Uk Reit Plc LSE:AEWU London Ordinary Share GB00BWD24154 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 76.40 76.60 77.40 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment Trusts 17.8 3.7 2.4 31.8 121

Aew Uk Reit Share Discussion Threads

Showing 401 to 424 of 1025 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
07/5/2019
10:16
Not sure where this liquidity has come from but I've taken the opportunity to sell my entire holding and will aim to buy back lower after ex div, I would need a price lower than 92.75 to benefit. May not work of course.
nimbo1
07/5/2019
09:04
Nothing to do with the xdivi coming soon?
bhafcseagull
07/5/2019
08:03
@LG - quite possibly - however, as noted above, there's no RNS to suggest they'd actually sold another 1%, which is odd. There had to be a seller there, could buy almost at bid for a while. At some point, the seller has to stop (inevitably).
spectoacc
07/5/2019
08:00
Back down to 90p then?
lord gnome
07/5/2019
07:59
The seller here is a bit more canny than the usual blinkered 'dump at any price'. They always take the foot off the gas and let the share price recover before selling more.
eeza
07/5/2019
07:41
Nice small dcb in AEWU - seen no Holdings RNS to suggest previous seller filled, but as soon as they stop/pause, the buyers send it back up.
spectoacc
03/5/2019
15:48
@Sleepy - INTU's recent deal suggests NAV may be not far off. The issue is: where is NAV in say 2 years time? ie will the High St stage a miraculous recovery? There's signs some retail can be successful - just (generally) not the legacy stuff, the tired shopping centres, anchored by the likes of Debenhams. Once they start getting vacancies, the empty rates kick in, the rents fall, the footfall drops away.... Without debt, you'd still be buying some of these REITS on c.50% NAV discounts. With debt, you have to wonder who survives the carnage. Perhaps a good example of why you'd never buy based solely on NAV, and also never ignore it. And also why you've got to look very carefully at cashflow/yields, and not trust that much either. A lot of the legacy portfolios are on rents that aren't going to be seen that high next time. (Upwards-only rent reviews are no use when the tenant CVAs). [Edit - at risk of going OT again, today's MoneyWeek has some very interesting comment about HMSO, INTU, BLND & LAND, basically pointing out the extent of their exposure to CVA/distressed tenants. The co's quote their exposure based on rent %, but on % of shopping centre occupancy, it's way, way higher. Back to earlier point about what happens to footfall when the anchor tenant disappears].
spectoacc
03/5/2019
14:42
Sleepy - you have to look at the sector allocation: Office, Industrial, Retail, Retail Warehouse, etcetcetc. The majors have a major allocation to Retail; whereas the secondaries most of us are following and are invested in (RGL, AEWU, HCFT in my case) are not so exposed and the NAVs are tested by active management, especially in the case of RGL.
skyship
03/5/2019
13:51
Thank you Spec. If the NAV isn’t believed for the majors why should it be believed elsewhere?
sleepy
03/5/2019
13:32
To be fair, INTU's recent JV (Cale St/Kuwait buying in to Derby shopping centre) was at around NAV. But also horror stories of eg shopping centres being sold for £1 - empty rates can create negative worth. Bottom line is - who'll survive. Again, if you've (for eg) £150m of property, £75m of debt against it, 70% max LTV (as per CAL), & that property NAV falls on CVAs, vacancies, lack of investment, death of High St, no alternative uses, at say 10% a year, in 3 years you've breached your LTV covenants. Not saying that means you're definitely bust, but good luck getting RI's away. Edit - perhaps the wrong thread for it. These aren't problems AEWU has, or is likely to have. But maybe the travails of the class has given us some reasonable bargains. Hope so, because I seem to hold a long list of them! (AEWU, NRR, SHED, WHR, RLE, AEWL...).
spectoacc
03/5/2019
13:09
"Property Week reports that Cerberus are to sell off the Leopard portfolio of shopping centres. The six malls are expected to fetch significantly less than the £81.5m paid for them almost five years ago." Will be interesting to see the outcome of this attempted sale.
skyship
03/5/2019
09:41
Stockopedia's report on INTU makes grim reading, I would not touch it.
rcturner2
03/5/2019
08:50
@Sleepy - or INTU, or CAL, or even the giants (BLND/LAND). Isn't just that NAV isn't believed (valuers behind the curve, High St retail only going one way). If you take a fairly comfortable-sounding 50% LTV, then assume say a quarter off the valuation a few years down the line, you've a serious problem. From memory, CAL's LTV is around 50%, and headroom up to 70%, which sounds great. But that's only a relatively small drop needed to risk wiping out shareholders. Isn't hard to see say a 15% drop in valuations come through after a few more CVAs etc. The more the REITs are Hammered (excuse the pun), the fewer buyers, and the lower the future valuations. And that's even if you assume current valuations are accurate. Warehouses/industrial more of a sweet spot - benefitting from demise of High St, not suffering from it. Active managers (eg NRR, RGL, UAI) also seem able to do well, and most (perhaps ex RGL) on low LTV's. And they're holding assets likely to revalue up rather than down (as indeed RGL has demonstrated). It's the "legacy" portfolios that look nasty - the likes of CAL, INTU & HMSO in particular. Tired shopping centres that if they're not half empty now, you can imagine being half empty in 5 years time. And little money spent (or available) for tarting them up. Witness RDI's recent standstill with Aviva. HMSO/INTU potentially suffering from the John Whittaker effect too - an interesting potential overhang on the INTU stake he's borrowed heavily against. Quite a few getting into "cheap if they can survive" territory mind.
spectoacc
03/5/2019
08:41
Anyone care to explain the difference between NAV and market cap in Hammerson?
sleepy
03/5/2019
07:42
Skyship, I would say that’s pretty near the mark. However, strange things happen even in primary stuff. I once worked in the Gherkin at the time it was both losing money and being sold! It’s traded at a value that was “surprising221; given the development at the time of several other notable city developments. Some Eastern investors are often happy to buy at low yields and inject capital to mildly repurpose the building. Not too difficult in the case of the Gherkin which was not being used effectively (at all). Yes, tertiary stuff in the sticks can trade anywhere. There is a market, but certain properties just don’t fit into any typical description and the valuer is basically guessing (sometimes intelligently, and sometimes not!).
chucko1
02/5/2019
20:25
chucko - reading of your experience then you must surely agree that large valuation discrepancies do NOT occur in substantial and marketable secondary and primary commercial properties. They do agree in tertiary properties of low value, as LSR shareholders past and present will concur. A DCF valuation is always assessed in light of Market conditions and the yields pertaining to type and region. Quite clear that not to so would throw up totally unrealistic valuations. Every yield has to be viewed in its context.
skyship
02/5/2019
19:17
Bboy, I am in the same camp as you (recent ex-banker). I spent a decade deconstructing various portfolios, one of which was a structured products one, which involved CDOs of ABS like CMBS and RMBS. This is why I posted on NAV as I did. All it does is describe my own experience and management bias. I am not a property expert per se, but I managed people who were, so I like to think I picked up a few things (especially as I fired lots of questions at them). In fact, risk management decisions were taken not so much on actual cash coming in now, but the likelihood that they would continue and if not, the mode of exit for the investment. At that stage, of course, NAV was then a critical issue but the property valuations never turned out to be 100% reliable. In most cases they were fairly good, but there were some terrible howlers from the valuers. We always used some significant margins of error when property liquidation were likely resulting from the failure of the overall investment pool. We needed to estimate what they would really be in order to value the underlying CDO tranches.
chucko1
02/5/2019
15:48
The only time you worry about the price you paid is when you borrow money to finance it. From there, you know what the financing costs are for say, 10 years. After that, the only time you really worry about the NAV is when refinancing time approaches since this is still of some importance to some banks as part of their decision making process. The connection between the two is that a high LTV is associated with a slightly higher borrowing rate, hence impacting the cash flow. It’s somewhat circular, but NOI and cash govern - not NAV. NAV might be a stated loan covenant, but it would likely be waived if NOI were still adequate. Nothing was more important than that in the 2008-10 real estate refinancing crunch. This isn’t retail mortgage stuff, though even here, the market is much more focused on cash (I.e. peoples’ provable monthly cash after all expenses). It was argued that cash is king where real estate is concerned and I totally agree with that. Wherever cash is adequate, NAV will rise to reflect this until such time as it becomes marginal and developers inject capital to increase the rent, and hence cash flow, and thereby NAV.
chucko1
02/5/2019
15:40
Precisely seagull. That's exactly what renters and landlords care about, as those are the people that give and take cash to /from. That too is all investors should be interested in. All the NAV stuff is for jobsworth dimwit bankers and valuers. There's an inevitable link between what a property might rent for and what it might be sold for, but it's not the thing to look at for comprop share investors IMO. As you say, belgraviaboy we'll have to disagree. But I'm right!
eezymunny
02/5/2019
15:09
I work for a company that rents and also rents out, when we buy for investment we only look at the potential yield which for us needs to hit around 10% but when we rent we only consider the £ per sq ft. I don't ever remember wondering what they paid for the building. We currently rent out about 88 units and rent 15.
bhafcseagull
02/5/2019
13:55
EezyMunny The scenario you paint is not one I am familiar with. I am familiar with asking rental being linked indirectly to yield. We will have to agree to disagree. Cheers BB (ex dimwit banker)
belgraviaboy
02/5/2019
12:08
Why then on commercial property auction listings do they state the current rental, the guide price and then the proposed rental yield? "Rent and NAV are completely independent"
rcturner2
02/5/2019
10:50
"NAV and cashflow / yield are both crucial - and they can drive each other" So a company comes along and says "We want to rent this building. How much? And the property owner says £300,000 pa. Company says "OK coool that's fine. What is the value of the property in your accounts?" And property ownwer says the property is in our books, recently, valued, at 36 pence". So the company says "ah ok, in that case we'll only pay 4 pence pa rent instead of the £300,000 that you want. Sorry it just doesn't work like that. A renter is only interested in the cost/sq ft., location etc. He has no interest whatsoever in the property's "value" (as defined by a spotty valuer). Rent and NAV are completely independent except in the minds of spotty valuers and dimwit bankers IMO.
eezymunny
02/5/2019
09:37
NAV and cashflow / yield are both crucial - and they can drive each other. Witness yield compression (and the opposite)
belgraviaboy
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