Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[adealsiddiq110] 18/7/2017 19:05

Do any of you think that this could be bought out by a larger company or are we looking at this to go bust. Please give your explainations and sensible response will be appreciated.

[sweet karolina] 18/7/2017 17:50

Jaknife,

I suggest you read the annual report more carefully. The first patient, will, if all goes to plan (unlikely in my experience), be treated in 2020. These will be clinical trials most probably offered for free or at a very reduced price. Real revenues would come from the sale of machines and as this cannot happen, though there may be some pre orders with small up front payments, until 2021 at the earliest, the best case is 4 more years of burning cash.

For "beam capable of treating minor tumours" read working prototype and not early treatment facility. The machine is being developed in stages with each stage needing to pass engineering tests based on particle energies achieved. The next stage has to reliably accept the output of the previous stage and then accelerate the particles consistently to achieve its specification and then onto the next stage, it may be necessary to revisit earlier stages if the whole thing does not integrate properly. when they have successfully integrated all the stages the whole thing will be subjected to an all up engineering test which will be specified to represent the particle energies and beam diameters need to potentially treat a minor tumour, they would never get approval to put a live patient in what is effectively an engineering test facility. If / when they have a working prototype, a full production spec machine needs to be manufactured and installed in Harley Street - the timelines for this are all there in the milestone chart, which ends with the first patient actually being treated in 2020.

The immediate problem though, which could cause the complete derailment at any time, is the Bracknor financing conversions have not been going through at the rate needed to fit the Bracknor business model and drawdowns have not occurred in the timescales anticipated either. The company bought itself some breathing room with the Blackfinch loans, but have had to hock the family silver to get those loans and that breathing room is running out. It is pointless trying to predict exactly when the crunch will come, but unless there is a dramatic change in mug punter buying to soak up Bracknor shares and enable more frequent conversions and further drawdowns, it is hard to see them making it past Christmas.

I expect the shareprice to continue to drift downwards as there is nothing on the near horizon to lift it. As things stand if Bracknor did do another conversion about 2/3rds of the face value would need to be paid back / deducted from the next drawdown, if there is a next drawdown.

Whilst I agree TW could put his point across much more effectively without resorting to inflammatory comments, the parallels being drawn with the KIN situation are entirely valid and the crunch could come any day should Bracknor pull the plug.

All this near term risk for possible rewards 4 years from now just does not make this in anyway an attractive investment. If they do survive to Q3 2018 and do deliver a working prototype, then it might be worth considering an investment then as risks will have reduced and rewards will be much nearer and more likely to actually appear and it should be possible to pick up shares and a much lower price than today.

[andy] 18/7/2017 16:45

johnjohn,

There you go, you got your price!

9.5p - 10p Bid/offer spread.

Are you buying at this point?

[andy] 18/7/2017 10:34

johnjohn,

Well the bid offer is now 10 - 11p, so your opportunity may be about to arrive!

Or you could put in a cheeky bid at a bit below 10p and see if it gets taken out, I can't see level 2 so I have no idea of the order book.

Or you could just sit on the sidelines and wait for any positive news before committing. If it does occur, there will be opportunities to buy at that point, at a higher price, but with less risk, it's a trade off between the two really.

[johnjohntaylor] 18/7/2017 09:48

I've been thinking about jumping in on AVO but was waiting for around 10p as I've researched this for weeks and think it's a brilliant opportunity. Any thoughts? I've read the positive AND negative opinions but what is the real potential here?

[mrtruth1] 18/7/2017 09:38

Yes probably right, still some people spout things like that to make up for shortcomings elsewhere possibly...

[andy] 18/7/2017 09:25

mrtruth1,


Well if you read about social media marketing, the use of the word "moron" could be a ploy to incite people, and they then discuss his articles, which would achieve more hits on his site, and be beneficial to him.


I have read a couple of books on social media marketing and recognise some of the tactics being used on various sites, including Tom's.

[mrtruth1] 18/7/2017 09:01

Hear all you say. I can't stand people like that though. Shows their insecurity and bad nature. ATB.

[andy] 18/7/2017 08:24

mrtruth,


Yes such a shame he spoils such articles with comments like that, quite uncalled for really, and not nice to gloat over others' losses.


The content of the article insofar as to how the Bracknor "death spiral financing" works is most relevant though, and the reason for caution here. Bracknor are at risk of taking a hit, and financiers like them don't normally take hits, so watch out for them dumping to try and save themselves.


AVO are also compensating Bracknor for shares being issued at under the par value of 25p (this shouldn't be allowed in my opinion because it is flouting the regulations), so, if more shares are issued at, say, 10p, they have to compensate back to 25p, so how much of the £100,000 tranche will remain after that has occurred?


I honestly think investors are going to end up funding something that will end up private by the time it come to fruition.

[mrtruth1] 17/7/2017 23:51

"Ouch, I just love the smell of burning share certificates belonging to Bulletin Board Morons in the morning"

Nice bloke whoever he is.

[andy] 17/7/2017 21:29

makeamillion1,

ALL financing is dilutive!

ALL CEO's are "positive" when interviewed!

At the current rate you will be "topping up" under 10p very soon!


I suggest people read this article to understand how the maths work against investors here:




"death spiral finance" is so called for a reason!

[vatnabrekk] 17/7/2017 17:24

Seems to be that the CEO is burying his head in the sand. He talks about challenges etc. but doesn't even mention the greatest challenge that they face, and the one that will very probably bring them down, i.e. their dire financial situation.

Could that be regarded as misleading?

[andy] 17/7/2017 09:31

Mr Truth,

Well that doesn't say anything we didn't already know, and contains no mention of their biggest "challenge", funding themselves through to profit!

Nor how they intend to achieve it!

I do wonder why they chose Harley Street? Why not somewhere a whole lot cheaper in the suburbs, surely in the case of this treatment, if you build it, people will come?


Please note when pasting URL's into posts, replace the 'xx' with 'TT' and it makes it a clickable hyperlink. See below.

[mrtruth1] 17/7/2017 08:47

hxxp://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/advanced-oncotherapy-plc-lonavo-qa-ceo-nicholas-serandour-lonavo/412731572

[andy] 15/7/2017 15:19

daijavu,

I think you're right, I have thought for some time that they will run out of money and the assets will be sold off, and the shareholders will have funded the development of something that will be enjoyed by someone else.

Quite why anyone is still buying AVO shares is beyond me, the Bracknor deal is simply eroding shareholder value all the time, and will continue to do so.

To sit and wait it out is very wise, IMO.

[mrtruth1] 15/7/2017 12:33

"There is still the possibility that AVO might survive long enough to complete the development."

That's right, that's why I'm staying in. To be honest, the money is no problem to me, so I'll be positive all the way. It's good for the soul! Good luck AVO!

[daijavu] 15/7/2017 08:11

Mr Truth. having faith and ignoring facts is the quickest way to losing all your money.

I would agree that the LIGHT machine could be a wonderful success if it ever gets to market but I very much doubt if AVO will still own it or that any AVO shareholders will get any benefit.

There are a few possibly scenarios and the most likely is that AVO will go into administration and its assets, including LIGHT, will be sold off. Whatever cash is raised will go to paying off some of AVO's debts, leaving the shareholders with nothing. It is possible that whoever gets their hands on LIGHT will might complete the development and bring it to market.

Another possibility is that CERN will take back the licence and award it to some other company.

There is still the possibility that AVO might survive long enough to complete the development. At that point there could well be a hostile takeover. That might return you some of your money.

I am an ex shareholder and an eternal optimist. I am keeping an eye on AVO and I might buy back in when the share price drops to around 1p or less if it looks as if I might benefit from whatever comes next.

[andy] 14/7/2017 22:15

mrtruth,

I wouldn't dream of it, I'm just explaining my rationale.

I learned the hard way, my first error was believing a story when the market was telling me otherwise, and the second mistake was to pile most of my investment money into that one stock, and it nearly wiped me out as a result.

I don't want to see you or anyone else repeat that mistake here.

[mrtruth1] 14/7/2017 20:58

No need to be semi patronising to those of us invested here.

[andy] 14/7/2017 09:08

Werty,

Good post, and I agree, trying to swim against the tide is normally fatal, the herd often know before you do.

Certainly setting a stop loss and keeping to it limits losses, and you can always buy back in again if things change.

To stubbornly sit there hoping for a price rise when the maths are working against you is not a good option, IMO.

Hope is not a good investment strategy, and never has been.