Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[bcockrell] 08/3/2017 15:22

It wasn't a huge short but I think it demonstrates how bad things have got for AVO that NO ONE is long on that particular platform. Given the huge cash burn and the low liquidity I don't think it will take long to collapse further and maybe the zero will happen shorter than people think.IMO, no advice, of course

[pj 1] 08/3/2017 15:22

Well, I have just spoken to Spreadex not 2 minutes ago, and they were unaware of any call back (closing of shorts), although who I spoke to did say it was a possibility at some point.

[pj 1] 08/3/2017 14:49

Seems unusual as AVO could still be shorted last week, Im unsure of all the ins and outs of how it all works though (shorting)

[blueball] 08/3/2017 12:54

Shareholders have been seriously missled by the BOD.

[bcockrell] 08/3/2017 12:49

Gutted. SpreadEx just forced me to close out of my short as there are no longs left for me to borrow against. Sentiment has clearly turned very sour.

[pj 1] 08/3/2017 10:49

IgbertSponk8 Mar '17 - 08:25 - 3034 of 3035 0 0
Indeed - if I was a shareholder I'd be reporting Evans to the FCA.
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It is not limited to shareholders to report such behaviour. The more 'reports' the better, so can I urge everyone to report this to the FCA?

In the face of the other accusations from TW then the failure of the Co. not to issue a ''we know of no reason....'' is damning. I suspect the Nomad has heeded TW' threat of claiming against them for failing in their duty.

[cosmicboy] 08/3/2017 09:10

So, to whose advantage was it not too report the sale? Evans with the damage to his reputation? or AVO with a forthcoming placing? hmmm something stinks.

[igbertsponk] 08/3/2017 08:25

Indeed - if I was a shareholder I'd be reporting Evans to the FCA.

[sweet karolina] 08/3/2017 08:07

Evans sold all his shares ahead of the placing last summer without declaring it. As a non exec he must have been aware of the placing and of the difficulties they were having with timescales - insider dealing.

[dudishes] 08/3/2017 05:02

Sweet Karolina


Your reference to David Evens seems somewhat ambiguous. Maybe you can explain, in short terms, and in English/French/Spanish/Japanese language.

Merci

[dudishes] 08/3/2017 04:49

Not sure why you guys/girls beef about it, nothing to do with TW, it's going down, or did you not notice?

BTW: SK, are you short? I am from 84p. GKP short not doing quite so well, but we can handle both, no doubt.

Do you hold a position here?

[sweet karolina] 07/3/2017 23:06

daijavu,

I think TW's financial analysis has been exceptional. His exposure of board excess has been a bit OTT but largely fair, with the exception of the David Evans affair which was absolutely spot on. I think he went way too far with the lies and fraud claims. The more I look at it the more I see parallels with other complex projects which showed great promise but clearly were not working properly, but were surrounded by a conspiracy of optimism. The Board is too large, getting the company to pay your gym fees when it is totally reliant on investors money is not good but with the exception of Evans they are not crooks and not monkeys. They are not magicians either just ordinary human beings who hope for the best and fail to properly prepare for the risks coming home to roost.

Stephen Hawking predicted that there would be one unifying theory of everything by 2000 (what a lot of CERN’s work is about) he later predicted that he would be wrong about that.

[daijavu] 07/3/2017 22:39

I never though I would say this but I now realise that TW was right about AVO all along. I got out before the presentation after I realised the implications of the Bracknor deal. I was luckier than those who waited for the presentation but I still made a big loss.

AVO have obviously been lying to us about the development timescale and about the development being on track but I would still like to believe that the technology should be good because it comes from CERN. Even that supposes that AVO have been telling us the truth about that.

Warren Buffett said that investors should look for a simple business that could thrive even if it was run by a monkey because sooner or later a monkey would be running it. We had the misfortune to put our cash into a complex business that was already being run by monkeys.

[sweet karolina] 07/3/2017 21:58

Gerhart,

The info is another delay. As I said in an earlier post they are still module testing they have yet to put things together and start integration testing. They need to get through integration testing before they can claim to have a working prototype. I am not at all surprised by the extended dates they are now giving and would not be at all surprised to see it extend further. I spent 4.5 years doing integration testing of complex systems.

No better finance package is going to come along until they have a working prototype and some genuine orders. The Bracknor package was for a minimum of £13m.

If you want to continue to deny the facts to yourself that is fine it is your money, but to suggest that anyone buying would not just be lambs to the slaughter has to be countered.

[gerhart] 07/3/2017 20:28

OK Karolina. My point, badly made, is that the regardless of financial situation, good or bad, since they only have one product then it must be workable and very good. But if it is good, and given as I suggested early they have cleared the decks regards up to date info/expectation, then perhaps better funding than Bracknor maybe found.

Let's see what happens later in the week or early next week regards share support. They have backed themselves into this corner through poor management. But am I dreaming to hope that given what a negative effect Brack might have, particularly with the price down again, but all info now out in open, that maybe a dilutive placing at a higher price might end up being the option they take. Ultimately better long term. Hard to swallow too, but better.

I'm crossing my fingers and toes that perhaps this is near our lowest point. And I am brave/naive enough to say out loud. Its the web after all so I can hide! :) Though expect tomorrow will be negative too, as others catch up and digest.

[sweet karolina] 07/3/2017 20:19

vatna,

Death spirals like the Bracknor deal are a symptom not a cause. Best to identify when a company is in such financial distress that such a deal is the only way they can survive and get out ahead of the deal. The warning signs were very clear for AVO. It was obvious they were running out of money and obvious the non dilutive funding was in big trouble, as soon as the Sinophi deal was in jeopardy.

[vatnabrekk] 07/3/2017 20:01

Regardless of how good the technology turns out to be, I certainly won't be going back in here until Bracknor have disappeared 'way over the horizon. And if I see them approaching anywhere near any on my other investments, I'll be off like a scalded cat!

[sweet karolina] 07/3/2017 17:25

Gerhart,

You prove my point. Science is important but not key. What is important about science is understanding that, when attempting something new, delays and cost overruns are inevitable. What is key is understanding the extreme risks that imposes on a small one trick pony like AVO. It is the commercial realities that are driving things and not the science.

This share has been marching into the valley of death ever since the Sinophi revelations. There is no point marching into the valley of death with it. Yes maybe they will one day start marching back out of the valley, but that will be from a very low level after mega dilution. Holding and hoping because you believe in the technology is quite simply madness.

[luminoso] 07/3/2017 15:21

gerhart

Yes, I've been in this share before, but not for a while, thankfully !
I certainly have no intention of investing in this company after the recent rns's.
I am not at all sure that buying these shares will represent an investment in the technology any more.
As SK said, it will probably be acquired from AVO in a distressed sale.
Just IMO.

[gerhart] 07/3/2017 13:11

Lum, why wouldn't people still buy. That is what makes a market. If you've been in, and I am, you feel pain and no little anger at the BOD.

But the science is key here and if it as good as predicted then all should come good....eventually.

If your a first time buyer you could be getting in at a very good price. It's certainly not a "given" that Bracknor are going to destroy the share price (ie near zero or close...)

Don't all laugh at once, but later this week after the presentations do you think the BOD will show faith and put more skin in the game?

[sweet karolina] 07/3/2017 13:09

I do not think people realised just how high risk and speculative this stock was. Think of other complex projects and how many of them end up going way over time and budget. Large corporations can absorb the impact of cost and time overruns, small outfits with only one project and no source of income will hit the rocks in the way AVO have when the inevitable delays and cost overruns occur.

I am sure the technology, if it is as good as being claimed will find its way to market, but not to the benefit of AVO shareholders. Thales might be the ones to pick it up and run with it. Whatever deal Thales do it will be in the best interest of their shareholders and not AVO shareholders. There is only one way this share can go for now and that is down. Dilution will be horrible and 0p is a distinct possibility. If they so survive they will be trying to recover from a share price in the single figures of P and will have multiples of shares in issue compared to what is currently in issue.

This is not about BoD lies, greed and possibly fraud, it is about commercial realities.

[luminoso] 07/3/2017 11:58

people are buying these still ?!!

[luminoso] 07/3/2017 11:58

What a car crash. The problem for cancer patients is that it will now probably take time to prise this potentially great technology out of the BOD's grubby hands via a fire sale further down the road.