Accesso Technology Share Discussion Threads

[strollingmolby] 25/8/2022 17:51

That's a fair point that Six Flags attendance numbers were down on 2021 - however Q2 revenue and, crucially, revenue per customer was up, highlighting how vital ACSO's products are to the theme parks and attractions that utilise them.

Guess we'll get some clue on renewal terms when we see gross margins in the interims on 13 September...

[strange1] 25/8/2022 16:42

My understanding of Carnival is that there isn't any revenue share and Six flags attendance is well down vs '21 which might squeeze ACSO's queuing revenues. The big unknown is whether there was any pricing pressure when Merlin and Six Flags renewed

[nchanning] 24/8/2022 15:57

A quick snapshot of Accesso's top clients h1 revenues of which Accesso takes a percentage Cedar Fair 2021 233m 2022 608mSix Flags 2021 542m. 2022 574mCarnival Corp2021 55m. 2022 1172m

[effortless cool] 24/8/2022 14:12

strange1,

Interesting theory, except that the last RNSNON they issued was this one:



announcing the renewal of their arrangements with Merlin and Six Flage, which was followed up barely two weeks later by this one:



announcing performance "well ahead" of expectation.

[strange1] 24/8/2022 12:31

A couple of related comments.......re todays announcement, my suspicion is that trading is probably weaker than expected but with August a key month they need to wait until it is over before assessing the impact on the FY. If you look at the trading of major customers they are not seeing the attendance uplift they expected. To avoid having to reference revenues the safe option will have been to go down the non RNS route......if its full RNS it means its significant (strategically or financially) but they wouldn't want to risk an uplift today if they need to temper expectations in the HY announcements.

[nchanning] 24/8/2022 12:13

If they were to simply match last years profits this would be on a cash adjusted PE of 10 - but we know costs are going to rise significantly. But I think there's every reason to expect revenue to beat the 10% rise expected in a very strong theme park environment with some COVID tailwinds

[nchanning] 24/8/2022 12:08

Think you are using Shore capitals numbers for 2024 here Rimau - $36 million profit and $121 million net cash . If Accesso manage to get anywhere close to last years numbers it will be a gigantic beat vs broker consensus which is around $9 million profit this year

[rimau1] 24/8/2022 11:26

Shore Capital upgraded FY22 based on the Q1 trading update. Lets say Q2-Q4 is poor and we get a profits warning with performance flat on FY21. Strip out the tax credit in 2021 and EPS becomes 29c or 24p. Lets say net cash is in line with FY21 at $64m versus analyst view of $121m. Cash adjusted this would still be on 9x FY22 with a significant profits warning. All i could be missing are exceptionals/write downs but this wouldn’t impact underlying.

[bouleversee] 24/8/2022 11:21

Yes, I should have thought that there would be a big cut=back in holidays this year, more's the pity, though more local trips may take their place which would be good for ACSO.

[wisewilliam] 24/8/2022 10:47

I agree. accesso has wonderful long term revenue streams which show that its future is secure. It is not just Merlin and Six Flags but now an across-the-board relationship with Parques Reunidos. And what is more is is not largely affected by the rise in energy costs other than people may have less money to spend on leisure.

[nchanning] 24/8/2022 10:26

This may not be financially significant but it is another indicator that net revenue retention , a key metric for any enterprise software business , remains strong . As well as the long term extensions announced with major customers Merlin and Six flags in January we can see further evidence that Accesso is expanding and broadening its offerings with its existing customers , a good sign of a quality business . AIM is full of doom and gloom merchants at the moment who are letting price drive the narrative rather than the other way round .

[rivaldo] 24/8/2022 08:20

Bit of an extrapolation :o))

I can't be bothered any more so will leave it there!

[eezymunny] 24/8/2022 08:00

I repeat, you have NO IDEA what the terms of the contract extension are. The customer is very important to ACSO, and may have used that as leverage to negotiate a much cheaper contract. It happens all the time, and given tough economic times it wouldn't be at all surprising. A profit warning is as likely as an "ahead" statement after this NONRNS IMO.

[rivaldo] 24/8/2022 07:32

Careful with those exclamation marks Eugene :o))

As I explained previously, this is imo likely an RNSNON because the immediate financial uplift from the contract expansion is obviously unquantifiable/non-specific, and in this event some NOMADs don't like to allow a "full" RNS to be issued in such circumstances. I know this from (frustrating!) experience when I worked in the City.

But nevertheless the additional revenues from the six additional parks - with seemingly more to follow per the narrative today - are likely to be a material amount once implemented.

[eezymunny] 24/8/2022 07:17

If it's "likely to be financially very material" as you suggest, why on earth is it an RNSNON? The fact that it's RNSNON suggests the opposite. The extended contract may be for a smaller £total than the previous one, and with more work is required to support extra sites for all you know. This could be financially positive, neutral, or negative, relative to old contract. RNSNON suggest, as the COMPANY says, that it's not material!!!!


Doh!!!

[rimau1] 24/8/2022 06:56

A little pedantic Eezy…I agree Rivaldo. Its always significant when a global top 10 theme park operator extends and deepens its client relationship. I liked what our CEO said about “With guest expectations for value and convenience at an all-time high”, the market is simply not valuing ACSO correctly today so very much looking forward to interim results in September which should give us a first indication of visitor numbers 2022v2021

[rivaldo] 24/8/2022 06:43

I've explained why imo it's an RNSNON, but perhaps you didn't read that part. And also why it's significant, particularly given the large expansion of the agreement, but again perhaps you missed the part about the expansion rather than just the continuation.

You are correct in that I am indeed a glass half full person who's generally pretty happy. Perhaps partly because my portfolio has done pretty well over the years.... :o))

[eezymunny] 24/8/2022 06:27

What's "extremely significant" about a company choosing to continue to use some software? It's a painful business changing software as we all know.

That's presumably why it's RNSNON. Good news for sure for ACSO but "extremely" significant" are, IMO, the words of a happy and cheerful, glass over-flowing, optimist!

[rivaldo] 24/8/2022 06:09

Excellent news this morning. Parques Reunidos have extended their agreement with ACSO to supply virtual queueing technology for five more years - and expanded it across "two additional North American venues and four European theme parks this year, with more planned for the future".

This may be an RNSNON because the immediate financial uplift is non-specific, but imo this is extremely significant. It's another vote of confidence in ACSO's tech and abilities from a big name in the industry, and is also likely to be financially very material given the impact from six additional theme parks with more to follow:

[rivaldo] 19/8/2022 06:39

Yep, they now have over 12%, with 4.96m shares, so a large commitment here.

Agree your post 5175. Given the confident AGM statement ACSO look very cheap on the evidence.

[rimau1] 19/8/2022 06:18

Nice to see Long Path continuing to add

[rimau1] 18/8/2022 12:12

I’ve re-crunched my FY22 numbers (very prudently) and come in slightly lower than Shore Capital. I expect $150m revenue, ebita $35m, net cash $100m allowing for a very generous 15% rise in admin and other costs. This spits out roughly 57c eps. Market Cap in GBP of £250m of which cash is £80m. Cash adjusted FY22 this is on a single digit earnings ratio of between 8-9. Wow. I don’t understand what i am missing or if indeed we have an imperfect market throwing up a bargain, so i have bought more at £6.18p backing myself. Lets see next month how we are looking at the interim stage. The only bear points i have are a possible slower return to pre pandemic visitors, margin pressure due to product mix change (higher distribution growth), cost base pressure from investing to grow/wage inflation albeit FCF and positive revenue/cost jaws more than offset this. I can’t see people reverting to non-technology experience behaviours, its just not realistic.

[gleach23] 26/7/2022 08:11

Isn't it the case that last July's trading update was a one off with a 'significantly ahead' statement?

Looking back a few years there doesn't seem to have been a July update and with there generally being an AGM update each May, there would normally be no reason for one.

No position atm but it's certainly at an interesting point on the chart.

[w13ken] 26/7/2022 07:45

Just out: accesso Technology Group plc (AIM: ACSO), the premier technology solutions provider to leisure, entertainment and cultural markets, is pleased to confirm that it will announce its interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2022 on Tuesday 13 September 2022.

[rimau1] 26/7/2022 06:04

Hmmm, no trading update yet.