Accesso Technology Share Discussion Threads

[1001011] 14/4/2020 17:02

J.P. Morgan analyst, Alexia Quadrani: "Everybody we talk to has a very different impression of when this crisis will end. Obviously, nobody knows. We’re assuming the parks will open on June 1. I’m talking about the domestic parks—I think Shanghai will open earlier, and perhaps Hong Kong opens later. It’s largely based on a couple of things—when the lockdown and the social distancing might become less stringent. It’s also the date that Disney is accepting reservations. If you call up and you want to book a hotel at Disney World, that’s the first date you can book—June 1."

[brummy_git] 14/4/2020 13:57

This is what Disney Shanghai is currently doing



Also Disney US has just furloughed most of their park's staff

"With no reopening date in sight, Disney World is furloughing 43,000 more workers"

hxxps://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/04/12/coronavirus-disney-furloughs-43-000-more-employees/2977490001/

Whereas Universal Orlando Resort and Universal Studios Hollywood said last week that they would stay closed through May 31

[brummy_git] 14/4/2020 06:43

Here you go 1001011

I did them a couple of weeks ago, but there're still relevant.

hxxps://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_covid19-socialdistancing-lockdown-activity-6652258316347076608-qikS

Moreover, most of ACSO's sales fall between Easter - Sept. I can't see theme parks opening (at least fully) before then - only if capped at say 25% attendance levels.

[1001011] 13/4/2020 21:51

The curve projections show the curves tailing off by 1-June. The base case is not a lost summer. It's immense pressure to reopen the economy once numbers dip below pre-restrictions levels.

[brummy_git] 13/4/2020 07:40

FYI gents

Just posted some new research on ACSO here

hxxps://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_acso-covid19-acso-activity-6655353582449160192-BIBY

[togglebrush] 07/4/2020 16:27

A nice hike up today... long may it continue

[1001011] 06/4/2020 22:06

It was a large up-day for theme park stocks and other outside-the-house sectors because of slowing numbers of new cases in Italy, Spain, and France.

[1001011] 30/3/2020 14:12

The stock market moves ahead of business conditions. Nobody knows if peak uncertainty and the cheapest stock market prices were on 18-Mar to 23-Mar or some point in the future. If X company's stock price is Y at some point during the summer, and X asks for money, Y could be much higher than the cheapest stock price if there is better or clearer news surrounding the coronavirus before then. Further, the premise is not a given.

[brummy_git] 30/3/2020 06:41

Agreed, but why pay a premium when you can pick it up on the cheap through either debt for equity swaps and/or bankruptcy?

[1001011] 30/3/2020 05:04

Not as far-fetched when the last time they were in lively takeover talks was the stone ages of autumn 2019.

[brummy_git] 28/3/2020 11:33

That's definitely one thing they're hoping for.

That said I never buy a stock solely in the vain hope of a takeover

[supernumerary] 28/3/2020 11:16

Unless of course they're positioning themselves for a takeout by Blackstone...

[qs99] 28/3/2020 10:20

Cool stay well

[brummy_git] 28/3/2020 09:52

My thoughts exactly QS99

[qs99] 28/3/2020 09:22

good call Brummy....think this may trend lower...let's see....some are buying in to "control" the fund raise coming later IMO.....

[brummy_git] 28/3/2020 09:20

The other thing to consider, is that when accesso needs to raise more money later this year (say in summer), BlackRock and Liontrust will obviously put in the cash.

However for existing shareholders, this will likely be in the form of high yield convertible debt (at maybe 10%+) along with shed loads of cheap warrants.

Hence, although the software/company/mgt is great, I will probably only consider buying back in once this forthcoming round of emergency funding has been concluded

[1001011] 27/3/2020 19:31

Someone like Six Flags or SeaWorld could choose to default on a debt payment, but I was illustrating that the entire U.S.-based tourism industry is eligible to ask for their slice of emergency loans. Remember, in 2009, Six Flags filed for bankruptcy, but all of their parks stayed open as normal. Lenders realize that they can recoup the most by allowing major theme parks to continue to exist and operate.

[brummy_git] 27/3/2020 18:46

if you've covered all the funding bases, then I agree, accesso is a top notch software provider & the stock should do very well from here

[1001011] 27/3/2020 18:21

Merlin's majority owner is The Blackstone Group, who is also in the business of lending money, and its next largest owner is the family that make LEGOs. Both have deep enough pockets to keep Merlin in existence.

In the UK, Sunak has indicated that the the BoE's initial £330 billion in lending could become unlimited as needed.

[brummy_git] 27/3/2020 17:43

What about Merlin Entertainment - ie accesso's largest customer, along with others outside the US who have to remain closed due to strict social distancing rules?

[1001011] 27/3/2020 17:39

The President and legislators have publicly asked the cruise lines to move their tax-domiciles to the Unites States. If they were to comply, they would meet the basic requirements of the CARES Act. No one is going to choose to go out of business permanently before exhausting their other options.

[brummy_git] 27/3/2020 16:50

"Major cruise lines could be left out of the coronavirus stimulus bailout"

[1001011] 27/3/2020 16:16

You're mistaken about any industry being excluded from bailouts. U.S. legislation is earmarking $454 billion to make up to $4 trillion in loans to affected entities. That mark would be ~20% of U.S. GDP.