Abrdn Share Discussion Threads

[wunderbar] 10/11/2022 18:07

I'm sure many on here are absolutely delighted with ABDN's share price performance this past month, up a staggering 41% (54p). It almost seems too good to be true. Having averaged down far too many times on this stock I decided to bail out today at 187p [edit: previous typo 180p] and in doing so booked a 2% loss on my investment (inc dividends). I consider this a great escape noting where we were just a month ago, with share price at all time low, not helped by Kwasi Kwarteng's now infamous mini-budget fiasco. I think this stock will continue to recover over the medium term but in the short term I'd be amazed if it can keep up this rapid ascent. I just can't see it motoring much further beyond 200p given the fragile state of global markets. And let's not forget the share price was c.230p prior to Putin commencing his war in Ukraine, which in turn accelerated the energy/cost of living crisis. With this in mind I'd say the current share price of 188p is a very generous price in this economic climate.

What really concerns me at present is the fact c.7% of this stock is being shorted, significantly increasing in past month or so. This is a considerable percentage for a stock of this nature and yet the share price has gone through the roof during this time rendering the timing of these shorts as bizarre, almost comical. Noting share price recently hit all time low 131p - what was their plan, aim to buy back at 100p or lower?! Surely the time for shorting was above 200p. Do they know something we don't. Given how well the stock has performed of late, at what point do shorts close their positions and lick their wounds. In the main, Institutional shorters rarely get it spectacularly wrong, that's why I think this run could be nearing its peak. I guess I'm hedging my bets we'll see a sharp retrace sooner or later which is why I sold up, not wanting to look back at this moment with regret for having passed up a great opportunity to exit at a good price in a volatile market. Time will tell if I've bailed out too soon but that's the risk you take. What I'd say to anyone here is, if you're going to average down do so at sensible staggered levels, don't get carried away like I did. I played this stock wrong, far too gung-ho, and nearly paid a hefty price.
I'll consider reinvesting if the share price falls back to 140-150p. I suspect the vast majority on here will hope I don't get the chance.

[tuftymatt] 10/11/2022 16:16

😂👍🏻

[spud] 09/11/2022 22:51

Short interest back up to 7.06%. spud

[montyhedge] 09/11/2022 11:37

Taking a breather had a great run.

[montyhedge] 08/11/2022 21:29

I think they will be back in the FTSE 100, what are they number 94, need to be 90 for automatic entry. Tracker funds come in and buy, bears short and caught.But interactive Investor I reckon a great buy, I use them, best online broker I have used. Paid 1.5 billion I think a bargain, with cross selling etc.Of course sitting duck for a takeover, with weak sterling, perhaps a overseas company.

[gaygay3] 08/11/2022 18:41

Could it be that ABRDN are to give 500million back to shareholders in the form of a special dividend if it’s true

[tornado12] 08/11/2022 18:37

Buybacks have never influenced this share price in the last 4 yrs. something afoot here and we may soon have an RNS shareholding update. This company needs a massive shakeup in direction and motivation. It’s working in case of Aviva ! C’mon we need some hedge fund shakeup action. Where is that big SH return they promised before EOY after the relegation from Ftse100 ?

[gaygay3] 08/11/2022 18:20

What’s happening to the share price up over 32% in a month SB must think is turn around is working or is it something else don’t think it’s the buyback so is SPUD right could be a bid soon any thoughts on why the share price as gone up so much in a month

[abirdinthehand] 08/11/2022 18:18

That’s the choice. £50 million a year for 6 years or £25 million +10% of future payments indefinitely.

[skinny] 08/11/2022 17:39

Hmmmmm - let me think.......

[mcunliffe1] 08/11/2022 17:31

abirdinthehand said:

The 300 million currently being spent is going to save close to 25 million a year in payments- which could be the difference between maintaining and cutting the dividend.

I say:

If the £300m wasn't pee'd away on buy-backs to 'save' £25m a year on divi payments the £300m could have been used to pay £50m extra in divi's for six more years.

[spud] 08/11/2022 17:29

Short interest down to 6.1%spud

[abirdinthehand] 08/11/2022 16:49

Interesting; and any bid would need to come in significantly over £2.

[skinny] 08/11/2022 16:46

Chart in post 1478 updated to reflect the EOD.

[spud] 08/11/2022 16:31

Recent price action could be a precursor to a Bid approach...

spud

[abirdinthehand] 08/11/2022 16:26

With around 3 million shares traded today and the price up over 6 pence it looks like there are not many sellers at this price. Good luck trying to buy back the 7% shorted stock.

[montyhedge] 08/11/2022 14:12

Looks like Abdn at 94th FTSE 100 needs to get 90 for automatic entry. Then watch these bears panic the nearer we get to 90.

[prokartace] 08/11/2022 13:56

Up by 1/3 in 20 trading days. Feeling a bit jittery

[kenmitch] 08/11/2022 10:29

Yes, it’s poor results that have hit the share price and shown those buybacks from £5 to have been a waste of money. I hold because Abdn is worth far more than the current share price. That might tempt a bidder as Management failings have wrecked what should have been a very successful Company.

[montyhedge] 08/11/2022 09:50

Bears are short 7% of a company with buybacks, 95% chance of getting back in the FTSE100, a massive yield. Stockmarket Santa Rally to come, ok perhaps they think they know something we don't. I go short but never against a company with buybacks and going to fight the tracker funds.

[abirdinthehand] 08/11/2022 09:36

But you are right Kenmitch. A poor set of results and these are going right back down again before we have a chance to react - and all the buybacks will have counted for little. I guess that’s the call we need to make (or at least get the timing right on). Although a bit nervous, for now I am more hopeful of a decent set of results in March than of a poor set.

[montyhedge] 08/11/2022 09:35

I can imagine it at the morning meeting at the hedge funds, boss saying wtf you still short, lol

[tuftymatt] 08/11/2022 08:48

Not a fan of buybacks myself but would agree that right now they are working / worthwhile.

[abirdinthehand] 08/11/2022 08:46

Regardless of the past, if the intention is to maintain the current dividend then buying back shares while the yield is around 10% makes good sense to me. The 300 million currently being spent is going to save close to 25 million a year in payments- which could be the difference between maintaining and cutting the dividend. The buybacks are also clearly supporting the current price and making it more difficult for the shorters