Abrdn Latin American Inc... Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 26/2/2016 20:23

City of London Investment Management Company Ltd RNS holdings increase to >5%

[mister md] 25/2/2016 19:39

chart trending upwards nicely. discount to nav. bottomed ?

[aleman] 22/2/2016 23:24

This broke the downtrend with some style today. Hope it follows on like so many other charts that have broken downtrends in just the same imanner in recent days on the back of $/£ and commodity price movements.


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[aleman] 22/2/2016 22:32

Huge jump in Brasilian employment numbers and stockmarket rose strongly in last month.Caution needed as strongly linked tp recent recovery in $/commodities.




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[aleman] 16/2/2016 12:34

Strangely conflicting numbers coming from Brasil. Consumer credit is rising nicely and confidence jumped in January after a couple of unexpectedly good unemployment numbers. What are they spending consumer credit on if retail sales fell as it rose?

[llef] 16/2/2016 11:54

from the Ft..

Brazil’s retail sales fell more than forecast in December, vindicating economists’ forecasts that the country’s consumers will begin to flag in the face of a protracted slowdown.

Sales dropped 2.7 per cent in December, the worst monthly decline in at least a decade, according to Bloomberg data. They are down 7.1 per cent from a year ago, the country’s statistics agency said on Tuesday

[aleman] 10/2/2016 18:32

I see Brasil smashed unemployment forecasts again. Both the last two months beat consensus forecasts by 0.5%.



Wages start to rise again.

hxxp://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/wages-in-manufacturing

Consumer credit accelerated in November and December.



Retail sales turn positive again.



Brasilian stockmarket is up about 6% this year. Yellen needs to get out more.

And just for good measure, a reminder of China vehicle sales:



Funny global slowdown.

[aleman] 03/2/2016 18:25

The two largest holdings up 7% and 6% today.

[aleman] 03/2/2016 17:06

Poked its head above the parapet.


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[llef] 31/1/2016 13:53

mexico had record new car sales last year, with december 2015 being the best month ever.

"It’s a 12 out of 12 perfect score for the Mexican new car market in 2015: incredibly, each and every month of the year set a new all-time record for that month, culminating in December with 160.675 units, up 21% year-on-year and simply the biggest sales month in the history of automobile in the country. The annual market is up by a fantastic 19% or 216.000 units to 1.351.764 registrations, smashing the previous record of 1.139.718 established in 2006"

brazil heading other way however

"2015 was a year to forget fast for new light vehicle sales in Brazil: down an abysmal 26% year-on-year to 2.476.904 registrations – that’s 850.000 less deliveries than in 2014, or 3.300 less every business day. In one single year the Brazilian market cancelled 8 years worth of growth as we returned to the sales level of 2007 (2.342.059)."

hxxp://bestsellingcarsblog.com/category/mexico/

[neilyb675] 30/1/2016 13:05

from todays Telegraph:

"But perhaps the most important lesson to glean from the past 30 years of stock market crashes is that even those heavy falls in October 1987 ended up being little more than a stumble in the market’s long-term rise.

The message here is that those who hold their nerve, investing steadily and regularly, should be able to ride out the storms, particularly when you consider the added power of reinvesting dividends."

[aleman] 30/1/2016 10:40

Interesting chart forming here. It looks like it will break out and rise to 60p support or fall back to the bottom of the channel which is nearly down to 30p at the moment. It is also interesting that a number of $-sensitive stocks are displaying similar charts.


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[aleman] 20/1/2016 08:04

Unemployment surprisingly fell in Brasil last month and retail sales are rising again. I suggest the media are behind in their reporting. They are still blaming everyome else and ignoring the poor retail sales, high inventories and corporate restructurings that are coming out of the USA. Funny how elections always affect effect reporting. China is showing signs of improvement in the last two months, as well, bit it does not fit the media agenda at the moment. Investors should not listen to main media which is always doing favour for certain rich vested interests. Far better to check out the economic numbers yourselves.

[cerrito] 19/1/2016 23:49

I would like to think you are right Aleman but the news from Brazil(and it will be interesting to see what Wednesday's Central Bank meeting produces) shows no sign of improvement-granted that at 4.06 the real is to date somewhat stronger than we could have feared.
The situation in Mexico is of course much better but note the MexP:US$ Fx rate is about 18.2 ad will be weighed down by current oil prices.
While I am not selling the relatively small exposure I have(and I guess I should) I am in no mood to buy more.
I note Monday's NAV of 48.4 ie the share price is at a discount of 10% which to me is mot unreasonable

[aleman] 19/1/2016 18:01

The downtend is getting closer to breaking here. NAV is about 3p above the downtrend resistance line. It does seem to be hinting that it is getting ready to turn.

[aleman] 08/1/2016 13:44

In 2009, you could have bought SDV at 36.5p with the dividend being cut to 6p. (Yield 16.4%). In the 6 years since, the dividend has risen to 8p as the shares rose to 192p. You would have made a 426% capital gain with another 126% paid out in divdend in that time. I missed the bottom by 10p but I'm not complaining. :-)

[nick rubens] 08/1/2016 12:32

High Yield securities inevitably result in capital loss. There is a reason for low yield investments (ie cash deposit) being on the whole safe. High Risk bonds have to claim to give a High Yield to lure the Capital in which gets swallowed up in government or corporate accounts and spat out as 'remuneration'.

Everyone is wise after the event. :)

Is their any recovery here or continued capital erosion in the years ahead?

[aleman] 31/12/2015 10:30

Are we threatening to break a long downtrend here? If the shares just got back to current NAV, it would break.


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[cerrito] 30/12/2015 19:46

A reasonably good webcast from the head of Brazilian equities for Aberdeen on ALAI's last year
hxxp://aberdeen-asset.kulu.net/view/ISR8ObkzMLW?elqTrackId=C2D418356BA6476A5CCD4C67F2513BE3&elq=78bab2488bae46d4971c613593d69450&elqCampaignId=2804&elqaid=10938&elqat=1

[mister md] 16/12/2015 20:34

took a few this morning for my yield portfolio despite being put off a bit by the relatively small size of this fund too.

[aleman] 16/12/2015 10:51

Well, we know LatAm has been clobbered by the slight rise in the $ and the 70-80% collapse in commodities. Can the $ rise further (when the USA has numerous alarm bells ringing which indicate a drop into recession -link to junk bond yields below, for example) and can commodities drop even further? It seems unlikely to me but "you pays your money and takes your choice".

[mister md] 16/12/2015 10:42

to buy or not to buy (yet), that is the question !

[mister md] 16/12/2015 10:40

still 7-8% yield at these levels, albeit with all the latam risks attached

[mister md] 16/12/2015 10:39

Rebasing the Level of Future Dividends

The Company has maintained the current level of dividend payments at 4.25p per Ordinary share since its launch in July 2010. At a time when the yield on cash and gilts is so low, the Directors believe that the attraction of income and income growth is still very important to Ordinary Shareholders and the market generally. Having regard to the challenging economic environment in the Latin American region, and indeed globally, and following discussions with the Investment Manager, the Board concluded that maintaining dividends at the current level was unlikely in the short to medium term and the weak currency environment exacerbates this. Furthermore, the Board felt that seeking to maintain a high level of dividends was inhibiting the Investment Manager from conviction investing which is detrimental to achieving future capital growth and, accordingly, to the total return to Shareholders. The Directors believe that rebasing future Ordinary dividend payments to a level that:

- is sustainable and offers the prospect of longer term growth;
- remains attractive within the emerging markets closed-end funds sector;
- increases the Company's investment flexibility to achieve capital growth through increasing the weighting to equities when deemed appropriate; and

- as a result, offers Shareholders the prospect of an enhanced total return;
should be attractive to Shareholders as a whole and will enhance the Company's appeal to investors generally.

The Board decided, therefore, to rebase the annual dividend to 3.5p per Ordinary share for the financial year commencing 1 September 2015. Accordingly, in the absence of unforeseen circumstances, it is the Board's intention to declare first and second interim dividends in respect of the financial year ending 31 August 2016 each of 0.875p per Ordinary share.