Abrdn Diversified Income... Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 31/5/2019 11:15

Trap door opened.

[essentialinvestor] 30/5/2019 14:13

I'm surprised the discount has not widened before now to be fair.

Around a 10% NAV reduction offer the last 12 months, defensive?.
or indefensible!.

[8w] 30/5/2019 13:45

hxxps://aberdeen-asset.kulu.net/view/H8iBWgeuBeW?opendocument&utm_campaign=UK_IT_factsheet_April_2019&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua&utm_content=CAAML000000071002&utm_company=N%2FA&cn=Factsheets


Hopefully this is the link to presentation

[8w] 30/5/2019 13:31

I'm afraid it is a new low. The rise in share price was based on hope rather than performance. NAV is lower now than when Aberdeen took over. Hope, the cruellest emotion, is now ebbing away.

What's worse if this returns to the discount at change over (about 10%) we have further to drop.

Watched an ADIG webcast a while ago. From memory the underlying theme is that the portfolio is a work in progress and they are happy with the shape it is taking. They would say that wouldn't they.

[essentialinvestor] 30/5/2019 09:34

Is this a new low for the share price in it's current ADIG incarnation?.

[essentialinvestor] 30/5/2019 08:09

Just to clarify, I was not knocking Buford, just referencing ADIG's
knack of unfortunate timing, they appear to have bought right towards the top.

[8w] 30/5/2019 08:04

Don't know a lot about Buford. But cursory glance seems to indicate the company is heading in the right direction. Broker buy, share price rising, positive news flow. Could be a good investment for ADIG.

[essentialinvestor] 01/5/2019 16:22

ADIG recently bought in to Burford, oh my.
It may be their largest individual equity holding.

[essentialinvestor] 26/1/2019 22:10

Ah right thanks, so I was not too far off then.

[8w] 26/1/2019 18:57

hxxps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/catco-crash-knocks-10m-off-aberdeen-diversified-income/a1193734?ref=investment_trust_insider_latest_news_list

Looking at HL it looks like NAV drawdown of about 9.5% from high point in early Jan to 31 Dec. 2018

Link to article, which warns possible more pain to come from Catco.

On a positive note we have had a small NAV bounce in the last couple of weeks

[essentialinvestor] 26/1/2019 14:02

8w, if the Cato write down is allowed for, NAV has fallen around 10%
during 2018?.

[8w] 23/1/2019 17:22

NAV taken a bit of a hit from large holding in Catco reinsurance. ADIG should be a good diversifier when the going gets tough....

[essentialinvestor] 23/1/2019 12:42

I think if markets really start to sell off, as per a bear market,
then ADIG should outperform, to an extent - meaning drop less.

Just reading the December 2018 factsheet, which has a very brief summary of
their 2018 performance, I'm not impressed fwiw. DYOR as always.

[mister md] 21/1/2019 09:22

nice director buy :

Price(s) and volume(s) Price(s) Volume(s)
----------
GBP1.15 100,000

[essentialinvestor] 29/10/2018 16:39

Hold a small amount
So many incarnations here I'm not sure what to think at this stage.

[speedsgh] 26/10/2018 16:22

Just over £63.5k aggregate purchase by NED Julian Sinclair...

Director/PDMR Shareholding -

25/10/18 Julian Sinclair (NED) bought 20,000 @ 120p = £24,000
25/10/18 Julian Sinclair (NED) bought 17,570 @ 119.5p = £20,996
26/10/18 Julian Sinclair (NED) bought 3,000 @ 119p = £3,570
26/10/18 Julian Sinclair (NED) bought 12,500 @ 119.5p = £14,937

[speedsgh] 15/6/2018 16:34

Half-Yearly Financial Report (cont'd)...

Outlook

As noted previously, this reporting period marks the end of the Company's first year following its new investment approach. Initially, activity focused on portfolio reorganisation, which largely took place over the spring and summer of 2017. Then also began the exercise of identifying and acquiring longer term investments which are central to the Company's investment proposition, namely to deliver attractive returns to shareholders, with low volatility, from a diverse range of asset classes. The table of commitments, in the Investment Manager's Report, highlights the progress that has been made in this regard and, in addition, further investments remain under consideration by the Board, which has recently approved an investment in a new economic infrastructure fund launched by Aberdeen Standard Investments.

The Company's Investment Manager continues to recycle capital out of investment areas that it considers to be expensive towards those that offer better value. This is also done to fund investment into longer term opportunities identified by the Investment Manager. In the current period, exposure to listed equities was thus reduced in favour of physical assets, mostly in infrastructure and property.

Although valuation levels tend to drive equity market returns over the medium to long term (3 to 10 years), in the short term (less than 12 months) macroeconomic conditions can be the more important driver. High equity market valuations, which have prevailed for some time, will eventually lead to low (and possibly negative) equity returns for a protracted period. For much of 2017, the favourable global economic backdrop benefited equities, but the first quarter of 2018 saw a return to pessimism, reflecting concerns over trade wars and the normalisation of monetary policy in the United States and elsewhere.

The Company's investment approach benefits from a broad opportunity set which requires fewer stark choices between high risk and low return asset classes. Hence it is easier for the Company's Investment Manager to reduce the portfolio's equity exposure, in the knowledge that the portfolio contains a range of other asset classes with the potential to generate attractive returns for shareholders over the medium term.

[speedsgh] 15/6/2018 16:33

Half-Yearly Financial Report -

Performance

Over the six months ended 31 March 2018, the Company's net asset value ("NAV") per share, with debt at fair value, fell by 0.1% on a total return basis. The Company's share price ended the period at 119.0p, resulting in a total return to shareholders over the period of 0.9%. By way of comparison, global equities (represented by the MSCI All Country World Index in sterling terms), returned -0.2%, UK equities (FTSE All-Share Index) returned -2.3% and UK government bonds (FTA UK Conventional Gilts All Stocks Index) returned +2.3% over the same period.

The main positive contribution to shareholder returns over the period came from our exposure to listed equities. As noted in the Investment Manager's Report, the low volatility fund outperformed its benchmark index. In addition, the portfolio's equity exposure was reduced at what turned out to be favourable levels. Global stock markets made a strong start to the review period with many indices hitting record highs. The generally optimistic mood was shaped by the passing of tax reform legislation in the US, progress in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union, and some positive economic data from China. However, a sharp rise in volatility in the second half of the period reversed all of the gains. Speculation that the US Federal Reserve might accelerate monetary policy tightening, coupled with fears of a trade war between the US and China, hampered sentiment.

Elsewhere in the portfolio, our private equity performance benefited from profitable realisations and valuation uplifts in several investments. Similarly, investments in global loans and asset backed securities, which are mostly related to corporate borrowing, also enjoyed buoyant market conditions throughout the period.

The main negative contribution was from insurance linked securities which suffered losses as a result of several, unusually severe, natural catastrophes in 2017. Infrastructure also contributed negatively; falling share prices in the social infrastructure sector reflected negative political headlines and the collapse of Carillion, a service provider to a number of UK social infrastructure projects. Emerging market local currency bonds contributed negatively following a poor final quarter of 2017, but were largely unscathed by the return of volatility in other markets in the first quarter of 2018.

The end of this reporting period marks the first anniversary of the Company's move to a new investment approach. Over the year ended 31 March 2018, the Company's NAV per share, with debt at fair value, rose by 4.5% on a total return basis. Overall, when the benefit of the shares trading at a narrower discount to NAV is taken into account, the total return to shareholders was +8.0%. This compared favourably to returns of +1.8% on global equities, +1.3% on UK equities and +0.5% on UK government bonds (using the indices noted above) over the same period. It should also be compared to our overall investment objective, namely that of delivering a return of LIBOR plus 5.5%, net of fees, over a rolling 5 year period; over the last 12 months, LIBOR plus 5.5% was equivalent to a return of 6.0%. Led by equities, most asset classes contributed positively over the year, with insurance linked securities being the notable exception. As envisaged in its Investment Policy, the Company's wide and diverse range of assets, with often very different return drivers and risk characteristics, ensured that the portfolio delivered much lower volatility than a portfolio with one or very few asset classes. As a tangible example of this, the maximum fall in the Company's NAV was 2.7% during the period of equity market weakness from January to March 2018, as compared to a 9.9% decline in the MSCI All Country World Index.

Earnings and Dividends

The Company's revenue return for the six months ended 31 March 2018 was 2.96 pence per share, compared to 3.17 pence per share in the comparable period ended 31 March 2017. This small decline in earnings is in line with expectations following the change in Investment Policy that was approved by shareholders in March 2017.

In relation to the year to 30 September 2018, a first interim dividend of 1.31 pence per share was paid to shareholders on 29 March 2018. The Board has declared a second interim dividend of 1.31 pence per share to be paid on 27 July 2018 to shareholders on the register on 29 June 2018. The ex-dividend date is 28 June 2018. These dividends, paid and declared, have been fully covered by earnings in the period, reflective of the Company's move to a more sustainable dividend policy. Revenue reserves at 31 March 2018 are equal to around two years' dividend payout at the current annual rate.

Discount Management Policy

The discount, calculated with debt at fair value and excluding income, narrowed from 3.1% to 2.3% over the six months ended 31 March 2018. During the period 515,000 shares were repurchased in line with the Board's discount management policy which is, subject to normal market conditions, the prevailing gearing level and the composition of the Company's portfolio, to attempt to maintain the Company's share price discount to net asset value (ex income, with debt at fair value) at no wider than 5%. The Board continues to monitor closely the Company's discount or premium and will undertake share buybacks or consider a sale of shares from treasury, respectively, if it is in shareholders' interests to do so.

[speedsgh] 24/1/2018 12:21

INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE
With effect from 11 February 2017, the Company's investment objective was changed to target a total portfolio return of LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) plus 5.5% per annum (net of fees) over rolling five-year periods.

Up until 10 February 2017, the Company's investment objective was, over the medium term (five to seven years), to aim to preserve capital in real terms and to grow the dividend at least in line with inflation and to target a total portfolio return of UK Consumer Prices Index plus 4% per annum (before ongoing charges) over a five to seven year cycle.

INVESTMENT POLICY
The Company invests globally using a flexible multi-asset approach via quoted and unquoted investments. The Company has not set maximum or minimum exposures for any geographical regions or sectors and will achieve an appropriate spread of risk by investing in a diversified portfolio of securities and other assets. Further details of the new investment policy may be found in the Directors' Report.

RISK DIVERSIFICATION
It is the policy of the Company to invest no more than 15% of its gross assets in other listed investment companies and no more than 15% of its gross assets in any one company.

GEARING
The Board is responsible for determining the gearing strategy for the Company, with day-to-day gearing decisions being made by the Manager within the remit set by the Board. The Board has set its gearing limit at a maximum of 20% of the net asset value at the time of draw down. Gearing is used selectively to leverage the Company's portfolio in order to enhance returns where and to the extent considered appropriate.

INVESTMENT PROCESS
The Investment Manager believes that many investors could dramatically improve their long-run returns and / or reduce risk by having a more diversified portfolio. The Investment Manager's aim is to build a genuinely diversified portfolio consisting of a wide range of assets, each with clear, fundamental performance drivers that will deliver an attractive return for the Company's shareholders. The Investment Manager engages all of its research capabilities, including specialist macro and asset class researchers, to identify appropriate investments. The approach, which incorporates a robust risk framework, is not constrained by a benchmark mix of assets. This flexibility ensures that the Investment Manager does not feel compelled to invest shareholders' capital in investments which they believe to be unattractive.

The Company's portfolio consists of investments from the widest range of asset classes. The portfolio may include equity-focussed investments, alternative diversifying assets (including, but not limited to, high yield bonds and loans, emerging market debt, asset backed securities, property, infrastructure, commodities, absolute return investments, insurance linked, farmland, royalty-based investments and aircraft leasing) and low return assets such as gold, investment grade credit, tail risk hedging and government bonds. Detailed investment research (including operational due diligence for unquoted funds managed by third parties) is carried out on each potential opportunity by specialist teams within the Investment Manager.

The weighting ascribed to each investment in the portfolio reflects the perceived attractiveness of the investment case, including the contribution to portfolio diversification. The Investment Manager also ensures that the weighting is in keeping with their overall strategic framework for the portfolio based on the return and valuation analysis of the Investment Manager's Economic and Thematic Research team. The fundamental and valuation drivers of each investment are reviewed on an ongoing basis. A schematic of the investment process is included in the published Annual Report along with a description of the Investment Manager's risk control process.

[speedsgh] 24/1/2018 12:19

Annual Financial Report -

Net asset value total return {AB}
2017: +7.6%
2016: -0.4%

Share price total return {A}
2017: +14.6%
2016: -10.2%

Revenue return per share
2017: 5.31p
2016: 7.56p

Dividend per share
2017: 5.89p
2016: 6.54p

Ongoing charges {C}
2017: 0.58%
2016: 0.62%

Discount to net asset value (capital basis) {AB}
2017: 3.1%
2016: 6.9%

A Year of Significant Change

On 11 February 2017, Aberdeen Fund Managers Limited was appointed Manager in place of BlackRock and the Company was renamed Aberdeen Diversified Income and Growth Trust plc. A discount control policy was announced on 13 February 2017 and shareholders approved a new investment objective and policy at the General Meeting held on 30 March 2017. In early April 2017, a 20% tender offer and merger with Aberdeen UK Tracker Trust plc resulted in an enlargement of your company with a 24% net increase in shareholders' funds and changes to the Board of Directors.

It is still early days and, whilst our performance should be judged over the rolling five year cycles of our new investment objective, it is nevertheless heartening to report an encouraging set of performance outcomes, further details of which are covered in the sections below:

- Our net asset value ("NAV"), calculated with debt at fair value, is up by 7.6% over the year ended 30 September 2017 (the "Year") on a total return basis

- Our discount, calculated using an NAV with debt at fair value and excluding income, improved from 6.9% to 3.1% over the Year, and had narrowed further to 2.3% at the time of writing

- Our dividend, at an annualised rate based on the fourth interim dividend, would have equated to a dividend yield of 4.3% based on the year end share price

- Our total shareholder return was 14.6% for the Year

[contrarian joe] 03/10/2017 15:13

Trading on NAV excluding income.