Abbey Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 02/7/2008 17:22

How much further to fall?

MCap £71m @ 289p. [£62m @ 250p]

NTA €250m. Chop off 20% of the land bank (say) leaves €206m: £165m or 670p/sh.
No debt, and cash alone is 160p/sh. (All at 31 Oct - results for FY due this month.)

Div yield about 10% if maintained (though they've hinted it might not be).
Average selling price per unit, €240,000. Land bank €218m, ie. 900 units, or just over 1 year. That's the weakness ... though buying distressed land might be a useful possibility.

[amla] 14/3/2008 10:05

Thanks for your info,Jonwig.
Like the nil gearing,net cash position!
So,in retrospect,the share price has held up well.However,I don't like it when the share price gets stuck like this so I shall wait and see which direction it's going before investing.
Amla

[jonwig] 14/3/2008 07:20

AMLA - it's quoted in Ireland, that's whare most of the deals happen ... the UK price just moves in sympathy.

It looks as though the shares were heavily sold off after the last results and outlook statement, when it was on of the first to signal a poor outlook for 2008: the big UK housebuilders came later with equally downbeat expectations - hence the recovery.

The share price isn't volatile because the company has net cash and nil gearing. Hence also the low risk. The "Z-score" on this share is reassuringly high.

[amla] 13/3/2008 20:50

Don't know how this company found it's way onto my watchlist,but I have seen it stuck in this price range for a month at least, but everyday it shows up blue....even if there was no apparent dealing in the shares.
The share price perfectly reflects the 5 year bull market in housing yet refuses to dip down to more realistic levels like 300p,where we should be buying.
Is it illiquidity that causes this immobility?
According to Digitalook,Risk Grade is 98....very low.Star Ratings-----good value versus market;Income good versus market.
Your opinions greatly appreciated as I know nothing about this company,only its resistance to market turmoil.So far....

[bird of dawning] 29/1/2008 19:41

With `LTBH' in mind then it could be worth noting that ABBY is ex div on 2 April 2008 payable on 30 April. Just for the record the divi is currently 5.9% with 3.3 cover. I'm looking to make a pilot buy into Abbey before this date.



The above piece of kit is available via UK subsidiary MJ Hire.....DYOR on site!
Regards bod

[jonwig] 29/1/2008 17:36

Yes, bod, agreed absolutely.
Though I don't feel quite equal to buying, just yet!
The share is pretty illiquid and moves pretty sharpish on even small trades. That shouldn't, of course, matter at all for 'LTBH'.

[bird of dawning] 29/1/2008 17:06

As the housebuilding/plant hire sector appears to have taken the biggest `hit' from the recent downturn, Abbey are looking like an absolute bargain, or as legendary value investor Benjamin Graham would call it a `bargain issue'. They've got construction interests in the Czech republic.

They've also been busy buying back their own shares recently......then cancelling them. ABBY are selling at a discount to liquidation value of 22% (m/cap: 161m euros); working cap less all prior claims: 205m euros. PTP was slightly down on 2006 by around 20%. ROCE is at 15%, net profit 14% and net debt approx 50m euros. Ben Graham would have regarded this situation as possessing a `margin of safety'.
Regards bod

[jonwig] 16/1/2008 17:54

Not a holder, and this could go lower, but on solvency criteria this is the most robust in the sector.

[jonwig] 16/1/2008 17:53

.....




Well, possibly!

The strongest balance sheet in the sector - NTA of £188m vs MCap (16/01/08) of £115m.
But gave a dire warning (Dec 07) and even put the dividend at risk.

Is this over-cautious?

[lbo] 07/12/2007 11:30

Abbey reports 19% profit fall


One of Ireland's second-biggest publicly traded homebuilder Abbey posted a 19 per cent decline in first-half profit and said cooling Irish and UK markets may lead to a "very poor" performance over the next two years.

Pre-tax profit declined to €18.2 million ($26.6 million) in the six months through October from €22.6 million a year earlier, Abbey said today in a statement this morning.

Increased borrowing costs in Ireland and the UK have curbed demand for property, while the fallout from the US subprime crisis has made it more difficult for potential home buyers to obtain loans.

UK house prices fell for a third month in November, the worst performance in more than a decade, while Irish house prices have fallen for the last eight months.

"The underlying conditions have been steadily deteriorating and 2008/2009 may well be a very poor trading period," the company said in the statement.

[currypasty] 08/4/2006 09:57

£6 when you started the thread, £770 now, 170 points down.

just think how much you could have made, if you had accepted you were wrong on all you property thinking, and gone long.

[nockybalboa] 08/4/2006 08:24

Those boys over at www.fairshare.biz seem to be in the know as usual

[energyi] 26/2/2005 09:43

Haha.
I never was short- this was for Research

I'm up about 20% on Mining shares in 2005- I lost less than 0.5% on Property puts
How are you doing with your property investments?

The day to renew puts on the US & UK Banks and property related stocks
will come soon, and I back in the analytic mode, so thanks for reminding me

[currypasty] 26/2/2005 09:21

hows your short doing energyi ?

[cat100] 25/2/2005 23:40

Trading on a pe of 6.5x which is a 4% premium to U.K. Homebuilders .

A DIVIDEND OF 4%

HIGH RETURN GENERATION WITH ROCE OF OVER 35%

LOADS OF CASH

ASSET BACKING SHARES TRADING AT 1.2X NAV

BUILDING FOR THE LOW END OF THE MARKET LESS LIKELY TO BE HIT IF THERE IS A CORRECTION IN HOUSE PRICES

THE share price IS WELL BACKED

THIS IS A STRONG STOCK...........

[zzaxx99] 24/2/2003 15:58

(In response to Southgate4's spam)

Not that it's relevant to this thread, but just to put this into perspective, there are over 3 billion shares in issue, and the company is worth £3m - your 500 shares are worth a princely 50p. Now sod off you spamming halfwit.

[energyi] 10/10/2002 19:07

ABBY's Chart / the UK/ & Irish Bubble Beast?:


Still researching this, but it looks like ABBY
are highly vulnerable when the bubble bursts:

ABBEY PLC
CHAIRMAN'S REMARKS TO SHAREHOLDERS AT AGM :
Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the 65th Annual General Meeting of Abbey plc.
Before commencing the formalities this morning, I wish to make a brief statement
about current trading.

Trading in the early months of our new trading year has been good. In particular
the Group's turnover and profit are running well ahead of year ago levels.

In Ireland, conditions remain very positive with sales on all our schemes
running ahead of budgets. Our most recent launch, a development of 2, 3 and 4
bedroom homes in Portarlington, Co Laois was very well received. New schemes in
Kilcullen, Co Kildare, Clonee, Co Meath and Ashbourne, Co Meath will be launched
early in the new year.

Overall the Group is in a strong position and prospects are good.

Charles H Gallagher, Executive Chairman (4th October, 2002)

- - - - -
Our housebuilding division completed 571 sales (UK359; Ireland 212) with a
turnover of €125.3 million generating an operating profit of €33.0 million. UK
trading was much better in the second half. In particular trade in our last
quarter was unusually strong with the result that sales for the first six months
of the current year are well advanced. Similarly, trade in Ireland in the early
months of 2002 has been very brisk. After the uncertainty of the latter part of
2001, the up-turn in business is very encouraging. All our sites are currently
enjoying good levels of demand. Overall the housing division is targeting a
significant increase in completions for the year end April 2003.

M & J Engineers reported operating profits of €1.9 million on a turnover of
€21.2 million. Trading continues at steady, albeit, unexciting levels. Margins
in the current year are being undermined by high insurance and pension costs. A
continuing tight grip on capital employed is being maintained.

The group's property fixed assets, primarily M&J depots, were subject to the
triennial revaluation this year and a surplus of €2.3 million was added to the
balance sheet.

In accordance with the proposal for the future adoption of FRS17, a valuation of
our pension schemes in accordance with the proposed standard was carried out.
The UK scheme on this basis was found to have assets representing 83.9% of its
liabilities, a shortfall of €2.1 million. As a result the company made a special
contribution of €2.2 million in early July to make up the shortfall.

Rental income arising primarily from the letting of surplus space at group
property was €287,000.

At the year end shareholders' funds stood at €142.9 million representing €4.19
per share whilst net cash balances stood at €38 million.

Shareholders should carefully note the exchange rates used for this statement.
The profit and loss statement uses the average exchange rate for the year of
€100 cents : STG 61.41p. The balance sheet uses the rate prevailing on 30th
April of €100 cents : STG 61.84p. Since the year end it has depreciated
approximately 3%. If this depreciation continues our balance sheet expressed in
euro would be materially affected.

E4.19 x .6141= 257p

Prelim. Stmts: