Ab Dynamics Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 14/12/2020 01:50

Just to mention that the Xmas MelloMonday special guest may mention AB Dynamics and I think shareholders and potential investors will appreciate his thoughts. There is an interview tonight with Keith Ashworth Lord who is a highly respected fund manager and well worth listening to. Keith's fund Castlefield are of course one of the largest shareholders in ABDP and I think it is one of their top ten positions.

The Mello Monday event starts at 6pm
The full programme is available on the website.

Also of interest may be the MelloBASH... The analysts, fund manager and well known investors on the panel will give their honest verdicts on whether four companies are a Buy Avoid Sell or Hold at this current juncture in the markets.



All investors welcome and if you use the code MMTADVFN50 you will get a half price ticket. Great investor content and entertainment. We had nearly 400 investors attend last month so these are very popular.

[piedro] 04/12/2020 11:09

E.Cool,
Thank you.

[adamb1978] 04/12/2020 10:53

Hi Ali47fish

Appreciate the kind words. The reasons for thinking near term could be bumpy just comes down to the numbers - I think the long-term future for the company is attractive and its one which I would look to get back into, and potentially hold longer-term

In terms of the numbers, we know from teh results that Q1 trading in in-line with the exit rate of Q4. H2 FY20 was 17% down on H1 FY20 though the worst trading would have been at the start of H2, so perhaps the exit rate in Q4, and therefore Q1 this year, is say 5%-10% on H1 last year rather than 17% down?

Therefore I can't see the interims causing teh share price to move forward, unless there is a very positive narrative or very big order wins, and the same might apply to FY21 full year results given that market forecasts suggest a flat or down year.

So if there isn't an upward spur to the share price in that period and the multiple is 'healthy' at the moment, then I think just with natural market volatility and share price swings, I might be able to get back in in the next 12 months in say the £13-£15 level. I'm not saying that the price would sustainably drop to those levels, and as above, the long-term future for this company is very good, but I dont see the price racing away in the next year and the share price does move £3-£5 up or down regularly enough.

Might be completely wrong, and you cant be right all the time, but we all need to make decisions and act on them!

Adam

[effortless cool] 04/12/2020 10:41

Piedro,

Mark Allman joined AB Dynamics in May 2019 as Operating Director, and was promoted to Managing Director in August this year. He has a background in engineering.

[piedro] 04/12/2020 10:38

Anyone know who is Mark Allman?
- he was granted LTIP Award along with the CEO and the CFO

TIA

[ali47fish] 04/12/2020 10:05

Adam- you seem astutely analytical and your rpost in the wake of the recent update was hopeful - why do you say the next12 months could be bumpy- i prefer to stay invested and hopefully ride the bumps- so when do you think a reentry after the recent falls is possible-i know no advice but your candid opinion- many thanks

[charo] 03/12/2020 21:31

Can't work out buying price of latest management share options??

[adamb1978] 01/12/2020 09:23

I sold my position at the end of last week. Managed to get in around £11 in the April madness so made a nice return. I do think this is a good business though with interesting long-term drivers and should trade on a PE in the 30s - however I think the next 12 months could see more downward pressure on the share price and the opportunity to get back in around say £14/£15 might be possible...though with the growth, it would be back in the £20-£25 range within 2-3 years. That's the these which I'm banking on any way!
All the best for those who continue to hold

[charo] 01/12/2020 06:36

Fair value allowing for growth 750p.

[ny boy] 26/11/2020 12:46

How much of their business is export? £ has appreciated 7-10%, maybe a contributing factor? Will read the latest broker updates over the coming weeks, meanwhile current S/R levels are as follows:-

Supports Support1: 1778.86p Support2: 1500.00p
Resistances Resistance1: 2230.00p Resistance2: 2604.64p

[ali47fish] 26/11/2020 12:11

boy another 9pc down -tell me when it becomes an opp to buy

[ali47fish] 25/11/2020 14:29

what is the per for abdp anyone knows please!

[hydrogen economy] 25/11/2020 10:13

Adam

Thanks, it's always hard to see the real picture after acquisitions due to one-offs, I hope you are right and costs settle to a manageable level.

[energeticbacker] 25/11/2020 10:12

AB Dynamics: results broadly in line, loads of potential but....but Investor's Champion is GETTING FED UP WITH QUESTIONABLE ADJUSTMENTS! More detail on their website.

[adamb1978] 25/11/2020 09:44

Hi Hydrogen

If you strip out exceptionals then the admin costs went from £14.4m in FY19 to £23.3m in FY20, so not as big a jump and that figure for FY20 was oddly weighted to the first half with H2 being just £8.6m. I'd suggest that that 8.6m figure looks more normal compared to the previous trajectory and would be the appropriate basis to project forward, so perhaps £20m clean opex next year?

Adam

[hydrogen economy] 25/11/2020 09:24

Its a bit hard to judge much given the disruption of the pandemic but one thing which seems concerning is the increase in administrative expenses from 16.5 to 29.2m. They have opened new overseas offices and expanded facilities at home so some increase is to be expected, but this seems a big jump. If revenues and profits had risen accordingly that might not be a big issue we will need to wait for next years numbers to judge the expansion. I would prefer some consolidation before much more acquisition, the ROCE needs to catch up to validate recent purchases.

[adamb1978] 25/11/2020 09:01

Just to put that presentation change on share based payments in context, its worth over 6p to EPS so £2+ on the share price!!! Conservatism is good to see in management, but going against the market isn't. Good thing I guess is that they flagged the change so that we all can adjust our own figures

[adamb1978] 25/11/2020 08:39

First glance: the results are as expected. Company is very conservatively managed and that comes across in the commentary, and even things like not adjusting for share based payments in their adjusted earnings figures - whether or not thats the right thing to do it goes against 90% of the market norm.

I trimmed by holding on Monday in anticipation, but still think this is a solid company with long-term drivers which should grow at say 10%-15% p.a. over the next 5-10 years, and therefore deserve a PE in the 30s

[paulisi] 25/11/2020 07:39

Slightly underwhelming, but the dividend is back and looking at further acquisitions.

[adamb1978] 24/11/2020 14:01

They've already communicated the headlines so it shouldnt be too much of a surprise, and 2021 will obviously be a covid-recovery year

The main thing which I'd like to see would be something about long-term goals - for example, double turnover within [x] years, or grow at between x% and y% over the medium term etc. The structural drivers are all there, but would help guide the market

[saab9] 24/11/2020 13:45

Oh it's tomorrow already? Get ready for all the idiots to sell even when there's good news.

[effortless cool] 24/11/2020 13:34

Showing decent strength recently ahead of the full year results tomorrow.

Buy on the rumour, sell on the news? We'll see ....

[tongosti] 30/10/2020 15:45

Well that's it for me at this juncture. Out flat on this share. Don't like the price action. If and when things improve I will reconsider.