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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ab Dynamics Plc | LSE:ABDP | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B9GQVG73 | ORD 1P |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-25.00 | -1.46% | 1,685.00 | 1,700.00 | 1,710.00 | 1,730.00 | 1,705.00 | 1,730.00 | 37,089 | 16:35:25 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Engineering Services | 100.77M | 10.99M | 0.4797 | 35.54 | 390.46M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
23/11/2015 08:31 | Oh it's not odd, just a common chart pattern. The left shoulder is 280, dips to 260 before the head is formed @320. Classic. | arlington chetwynd talbot | |
23/11/2015 08:21 | But there has been a massive upgrade in profits since then, an odd comment tbh | hydrus | |
23/11/2015 08:16 | Well, I'm only going by EC's 2017 pbt @1/10 of current MV Hydrus. Looks fair for now. Chart looks an obvious h&s and if the mid 2015 one is repeated 260 will be on. | arlington chetwynd talbot | |
23/11/2015 07:49 | You won't be seeing 260 Still undervalued at this level | hydrus | |
23/11/2015 07:46 | Oh don't get the wrong end of the stick mate, was only wondering. This doesn't look particularly expensive on your 2017 numbers, on the money. Any pull-back towards the 260 h&s may present a buying opportunity if no nasties emerge. gl | arlington chetwynd talbot | |
23/11/2015 07:11 | "There seems no need for another thread as the existing one seems to be ticking along nicely". Feel free not to post here then. I prefer an actively managed header. I'm going to be updating my projections as news emerges, and would like to provoke some discussion and challenge from those that are interested in the fundamentals. | effortless cool | |
23/11/2015 01:10 | 50% re-rating reflects the good performance. I'd expect some settling back. There seems no need for another thread as the existing one seems to be ticking along nicely. | arlington chetwynd talbot | |
22/11/2015 22:19 | New thread: | effortless cool | |
22/11/2015 22:12 | AB Dynamics describes itself as follows. "... engaged in the design, manufacture and supply to the global automotive industry of advanced testing and measurement products for vehicle suspension, brakes and steering both in the laboratory and on the test track. With over 90% of sales to export, the Group's products are used for research, development and production quality control. The Directors believe that the Group is one of the leading UK suppliers in its market, with customers including the research and development divisions of some of the world's leading vehicle manufacturers". It listed on AIM in May 2013 and, in contrast to so many IPOs over the last few years, has been a resounding success, more than tripling over the subsequent period. My analysis suggests there is still value here, however. The company is growing fast, cash rich and pays a dividend. At 310p per share, the market capitalisation is £53.7m. 2015 revenue was £16.5m. I am forecasting £19.0m for 2016 and £21.5m for 2017. 2015 PBT was £3.8m. I am forecasting £4.4m for 2016 and £5.4m for 2017. The company is throwing off cash. At end 2015, it held £8.0m. My forecasts are for £10.4m by end-2016 and £12.7m by end-2017. Note, however, that I have not attempted to make allowance for the company's plan to build a new factory for completion early in 2017. Management is strongly aligned with shareholders, with the Chairman, Anthony Best, owning 32.3% directly. I have selected a target PE ratio of 14. Low, perhaps, for such a high growth business, but I consider it appropriate given its small size and lack of diversification. Adjusting for cash, options, warrants and dividends, my target price is 380.6p per share. I hold 18,960 at an average of 225.6p. ^^^In order to keep this header to a sensible length, I have cut and pasted historical updates to post 1^^^ ==================== April 2019 update ==================== ABDP’s 27 March 2019 trading statement told us “we are confident that results for the full year will be in line with both management and consensus market expectations”. Since my projections were some way behind consensus (to a degree, deliberately prudent), I have now revised and improved them. My updated forecasts are shown below, with consensus figures in brackets (square brackets used where broker consensus figures not available so based on Progressive Equity Research only). - Revenue. 2019: £48.6m (£49.8m), 2020: £57.5m (£62.5m) - Reported net profit. 2019 £10.3m, 2020: £12.6m - Adjusted net profit. 2019: £10.5m [£9.5m], 2020: £12.6m [£11.2m] - EPS reported. 2019: 52.5p [46.1p], 2020: 62.9p [54.6p] - EPS adjusted. 2019: 51.0p (49.6p), 2020: 61.1p (64.3p) - DPS. 2019: 4.03p (4.03p), 2020: 4.43p (4.43p) - Net cash. 2019: £16.1m [£20.6m], 2020 £17.6m [£26.2m] Note that I am still retaining a degree of prudence by setting my revenue projections somewhat below consensus. The big discrepancy on net cash projections between myself and Progressive is also noteworthy. I am assuming heavy investment in fixed assets in my projections (2019: £7m, 2020: £8m) as ABDP construct their second new factory that they have indicated should be completed in 2020. I have not taken any valuation credit for this investment in new facilities, adding an additional level of prudence. My new valuation is 1693p per share, and I expect to upgrade that further when the interim results appear on 24 April. In the meantime, at 7% above the current price of 1590p, this remains a firm HOLD for me. ==================== April 2019 update, part 2 ==================== Consensus estimates have one up again since the trading statement and mine are now looking too remote again, so I have done a quick reforecast. My updated forecasts are shown below, with consensus figures in brackets (square brackets used where broker consensus figures not available so based on Progressive Equity Research only). - Revenue. 2019: £51.1m (£51.38m), 2020: £62.5m (£63.2m) - Reported net profit. 2019 £10.8m, 2020: £13.7m - Adjusted net profit. 2019: £11.1m (£10.5m), 2020: £13.7m (£14.2m) - EPS reported. 2019: 55.4p [46.1p], 2020: 68.7p [54.6p] - EPS adjusted. 2019: 53.7p (50.3p), 2020: 66.9p (63.6p) - DPS. 2019: 4.03p (4.09p), 2020: 4.43p (4.49p) - Net cash. 2019: £15.9m [£20.6m], 2020 £17.7m [£26.2m] My new valuation is 1808p per share At 3% above the current price of 1590p, this remains a firm HOLD for me. ==================== April 2019 update, part 3 ==================== ABDP published interim results last week that were well ahead of expectations (both mine and brokers). I have reworked my valuation model accordingly and the revised forecasts are set out below. Updated analyst consensus are shown in brackets (square brackets are Progressive Equity Research forecasts only). - Revenue. 2019: £53.6m (£51.8m), 2020: £62.8m (£63.0m) - Reported net profit. 2019 £11.9m, 2020: £13.8m - Adjusted net profit . 2019: £12.1m [£10.3m], 2020: £13.8m [£12.0m] - EPS reported. 2019: 58.9p [49.8p], 2020: 67.3p [58.0p] - EPS adjusted. 2019: 60.7p (50.8p), 2020: 69.3p (62.2p) - DPS. 2019: 4.03p (4.07p), 2020: 4.44p (4.47p) - Net cash. 2019: £18.9m [£21.7m], 2020 £19.0m [£28.5m] Unusually, I now find that I am more aggressive than the brokers. Looking at the Progressive report, I think that they are being significantly overcautious over 2019 H2 revenues. The big difference on cash is, I think, because my projections assume significant additional investment in the new facility they are starting to build. My target price rises to 2,026p. At 5% below the current price of 2145p, this leaves ABDP a HOLD for me now. I have, however, taken profits on a small part of my holding. ==================== December 2019 update ==================== I have finally got run to updating my forecasts based on the year-end results published a month ago.. I have reworked my valuation model to include the fundraising and the acquisitions and the revised forecasts are set out below. Updated analyst consensus are shown in brackets. - Revenue ................ 2020: £78.1m (£75.4m) ... 2021: £90.0m (£87.4m) - Reported net profit .... 2020: £16.1m ............ 2021: £19.1m - Adjusted net profit .... 2020: £16.1m (£14.3m) ... 2021: £19.1m (£17.3m) - EPS reported ........... 2020: 71.9p ............. 2021: 84.6p - EPS adjusted ........... 2020: 71.2p (64.9p) ..... 2021: 84.2p (76.7p) - DPS .................... 2020: 5.06p (4.89p) ..... 2021: 5.82p (5.45p) - Net cash ............... 2020: £44.4m ............ 2021: £53.4m Again, I find that I am more aggressive than the brokers. Hopefully, this means that there is scope for broker upgrades. My target price rises to 2,360p. At 13% below the current price of 2090p, this leaves ABDP a solid HOLD for me now. Declaration of interest: I hold 18,532 ABDP shares at an average of 645.2p, have collected £3.5k in dividends and have realised profits of £213.9k. Latest results presentation Major shareholders: | effortless cool | |
17/11/2015 07:41 | Someone just posted this on Twitter - worth watching as its goes through drivers for growth and their plans: www.youtube.com/watc | mg1982 | |
13/11/2015 11:47 | Good pipeline and increase in capacity too ! | treeshake | |
13/11/2015 09:57 | Susceptible to a bid at this level. It's far too cheap. | hydrus | |
13/11/2015 08:47 | And that doesn't even account for the 8mln in net cash | stocktrawler | |
12/11/2015 09:47 | Brilliant results! Broker forecasts have target prices increased to 310 from Panmure and 340 from Cantor Likely to be constantly upgraded | mg1982 | |
12/11/2015 09:18 | Fair enough - remember though 'next year' is now 'this year'. We are already a few months in and managements confidence is a useful insight into current year performance. | hydrus | |
12/11/2015 09:16 | Its still cheap az4h | stocktrawler | |
12/11/2015 09:13 | Net cash is 15% of market cap. Diluted EPS for 2015 was 18.26p - share price is currently sitting at 309p - take off the 15% to get 262p. 262 / 18.26 = PE of 14. Assume 30% growth next year and PE will be below 10. I agree that it's difficult to find quality growth companies at this sort of rating. | stocktrawler | |
12/11/2015 09:12 | oh man why didnt i buy this at £2 when I knew it was cheap | az4hr | |
12/11/2015 08:50 | Worth pointing out that both ROCE and cash generation are excellent | hydrus | |
12/11/2015 08:45 | I think PE for prior year after cash is actually 13. I made a mistake above.However either way this years PE therefore is likely to be significantly less if growth continues which they seem confident about.New facilities will support longer term growth I don't think there are many cheaper growth companies on the stock market | hydrus |
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