Aa Share Discussion Threads

[spob] 21/2/2018 07:44

Current assets minus Total Liabilities = Minus 3.34 Billion Pounds

[spob] 21/2/2018 07:41

Too much debt also equals ...

'possible' future fund raisings and shareholder dilution

[spob] 21/2/2018 07:29

I guess it's only a matter of time before they cut it completely.

[spob] 21/2/2018 07:27

Too much debt equals ...


Dividends

· As a result of the investment outlined today and the operation of the dividend gating covenant under the Whole Business Securitisation, the Board has changed its policy on dividends. We propose paying 2p per share per year until such time as the Board is satisfied that the profit and free cash flow enable a change in policy

· We currently expect the dividend in respect of FY19 to be split 0.6p per share for the interim and 1.4p per share for the final

· We currently expect to declare a final dividend in respect of FY18 of 1.4p per share. Added to the interim dividend already paid, this would give total dividends for FY18 of 5p per share

[srpactive] 20/2/2018 15:32

I am not saying anything, as everytime I do it
gets a thumbs down, dyor.

[anony mous] 20/2/2018 15:30

Somethings leaked.

[pi0110] 20/2/2018 12:13

If they stop the dividend payments here it would make the shorters life more comfortable as they wouldn't have to pay the dividends to the company that lends them their shares!

[srpactive] 20/2/2018 11:39

am

Yes agree, but looking at the chart above they have already
been doing the take down, dyor.

[anony mous] 20/2/2018 10:48

Could go either way tomorrow.City my take it down and then for the bounce.Hard to tell.

[srpactive] 20/2/2018 10:05

pb1

After reading the latest trading update, I thought
this was interesting and the strategy review tomorrow
could shine a light on where they are heading.
Yes the debt needs reducing and they stated that was
what is happening, so fingers crossed for tomorrow, dyor
a must.

[pbutterworth1] 20/2/2018 08:29

could be a nice bounce opp here

[pbutterworth1] 20/2/2018 08:28

Anony Mous19 Feb '18 - 08:46 - 153 of 154
0 0 0
Will be sub quid soon.

- I do not think so. Share not behaving shorted. Significant turn on share action srpactive +1

[srpactive] 20/2/2018 08:20

Tested and bounced again, for the third time,
you never know it might be news that surprise'
to the good tomorrow. I am sure Mr Woodford will
have expressed his views to the board.

We shall see, dyor.

[anony mous] 19/2/2018 08:46

Will be sub quid soon.

[srpactive] 19/2/2018 08:24

Back down to 113p.

[jonwig] 18/2/2018 14:44

Short interest 9.35%:

[pbutterworth1] 16/2/2018 15:27

...ps the share price is not behaving like a shorted share anymore....

[pbutterworth1] 16/2/2018 15:25

jonwig16 Feb '18 - 07:00 - 141 of 147
0 0 0
IC says 'sell':

Activist investors have taken out short positions in at least 8.6 per cent of AA's shares. While the shares trade at just five times 2019 forecast earnings, they may be on to something. The business looks to be struggling against long-term decline, exacerbated by tactical foul-ups and tax changes, while its borrowings remain sky-high. Sell.

Just saying.

Excellent! IC is very late as usual. IMHO short interest is peaking and the brand will win out in the end. Its cheap for a reason. but long it will not stay cheap. I am in GLA

[jonwig] 16/2/2018 14:45

@ santori - I agree absolutely, and am unlikely to invest here as it just doesn't fit my criteria. However, I was interested to post an unbiased view.

Broker forecasts - the point is not the verdict but the process. Broker notes often contain a cut-down spreadsheet which shows the weight placed on various scenarios. Much of the Liberum note is based on a positive view of forward progesss. IF this can be achieved THEN the expected earnings follow. (With debt interest covered).

Essentially, the note suggets the gain in insurance services exceeds the loss on roadside by sufficient to cover debt interest; at the same time, rising gilt yields can reduce the pension scheme payments (surprising how quick this can be). You can tweak their numbers to fit your own scenario. (You'll know this, of course.)

Actually, I've stopped buying anything! Last week was a dress rehearsal, and lots of stuff will get a lot cheaper for those who can stay patiently on the sidelines.

[utsushi] 16/2/2018 12:54

jonwig,

If you are aware of the debt, then surely you should not be surprised at the short interest!

This kind of weak, over loaded balance sheets are just what the long haired boys at GLG Partners go for.

On brokers forecasts, I don't think they amount to much, I can't out analyse the analysts but I used to be a broker, just do your own common sense analysis on debt repayment versus conservative net cash flow rough "back of an envelope" forecast and you will see that things don't add up.

The share price confirms this, so I have no reason to disbelieve and take no pleasure calling things down-I'm just a ghost gambler here, and most likely it wont go down all the way to China.

[srpactive] 16/2/2018 11:57

I am waiting for 113p to be retested, and hold, with
the IC article I feel this will happen by Monday morning
at the latest, we shall see, dyor a must.

[nigelpm] 16/2/2018 10:03

The stock for me is still a massive sell. However, it is certainly worth waiting for the 21st February RNS on what they've managed to achieve.

[jonwig] 16/2/2018 09:36

santori - sure. The debt's a known, but I was surprised at the size of the short interest.

Some brokers are positive: Liberum buy tp 250p, Barclays o/w tp 200p, Cr Suisse u/p tp 140p. Summary of Liberum note, 8 Feb:

Trading update guides to EBITDA in line: we expect a mix shift from
Roadside to Insurance and increase EPS by 2% for the removal of the
MVP scheme from estimates. Expect FCFe higher YoY and to improve
further to £183m by FY 2020. We continue to expect FY net debt of
£2,636m, or 6.7x net debt / EBITDA and no rights issue short term to pay
down debt. Increased breakdowns and greater volatility have been
managed within 2018 guidance, but membership growth is weaker. No
management guidance for FY 2019 but additional patrols should be selffunding.
Strategy review has been brought forward to the 21st February
and should add flesh to the bones. Roadside Assistance EBITDA estimate
reduced 2% due to a 1% decline in Paid Members. At Insurance Services,
we increase EBITDA by £6m and assume a 9% increase in EBITDA due to
strength in Motor and the in-house insurer. We retain our target price of
250p, a CY 2018 FCFe yield of 16.5% is attractive.