600 Share Discussion Threads

[mr_bluesky] 03/3/2013 12:02

These are my thoughts on where the FTSE 100 may go next!

FTSE 100 Daily chart 01/03/13.

Is the FTSE 100 in a bull flag just under 6,400? I think it is!

I believe there is a strong chance that the FTSE 100 is in a bull flag formation and a break over 6,400 could easily see a rally to take it to a first target of c6,700 which is below the October 2007 high of 6,751.It could even go on further to test the December 1999 high of 6,950.

My figure of cerca 6,700 I have come to by projecting the hight of the "flag pole"(first blue flag on chart)from the bottom of the flag formed/forming as the first flag pole is a good indicator to help predict the extent of the break out.....if that makes sense.

Any way this is all just theory at the moment,but it will become more real when the 6,400 is broken through and the MACD crosses over again.

FTSE 100 monthly chart 21/09/12:

The theory will also tie in nicely with my prediction back in september as shown in the chart above.

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 01/3/2013 18:56

The week behind:

Another week done and dusted and a very telling one it was to.

The UK down grading to Aa1 went by without the bat of an eye lid,but the Italian election results,voting for a comic,dropped the ftse in a big one day move.

My tips from the builders to do well,PSN and TW.,did with PSN at first dropping on results but closing the week up.TW responded alot better and broke out over the 80p and now looks very bullish medium/long term.

As for the banks well my hopes for them were just that......hopes as the results were not met well by the markets and it looks like the long hard struggle has still a long way to go.Its now looking very doubtfull whether LLOY will fill the gap between 56-57.7p before the rally corrects and may become un coupled from any further market rises.Speaking of which the FTSE 100 failed to close over 6,400 as I had hoped,but has finished the week well and I do expect it to be attacked again as I believe the market rally has still some puff left in it yet.

Out of The 37 key companies in my list that reported this week,27 of them closed the week up and a vast majority of them are trending up above an up trending 50dma and 200dma which shows strength.


The Week Ahead

Key Companies Reporting: March 4th – 8th

Monday – Finals: Amlin (LON:AML), HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA), Intertek (LONL:ITRK), Keller Group (LON;KLR), Ultra Electronics (LON:ULE).

Tuesday – Finals: Meggitt (LON:MGGT), Menzies J (LON:MNZS), Michael Page International (LON:MPI), Moneysupermarket (LON:MONY), Regus (LON:RGU), Serco (LON:SRP), Tullett Prebon (LON:TLPR), Wood Group (LON:WG.). Q3: Ashtead Group (LON:AHT).

Wednesday – Finals: Admiral Group (LON:ADM), Legal & General (LON:LGEN), Unite Group (LON:UDG).

Thursday – Finals: Aviva (LON:AV.), Balfour Beatty (LON:BBY), Cobham (LON:COB), Hunting (LON:HTG), IMI (LON:IMI), Inmarsat (LON:ISAT), Schroders (LON:SDR), Spirax Sarco (LON:SPX).

Friday – Finals: AGA Rangemaster (LON:AGA)


Another busy week ahead with 26 key companies reporting and having had a look at the charts for them a vast majority are in very bullish trends most of which are up trending over the 50dma and the 200dma which are also trending up.

I like to concentrate on shares I think are about to break out and the ones I like the look of inparticular are HSBA,MNZS,MPI,TLPR,UDG and AGA.Thats not to say I dont like the others its just that I find the charts interesting.

UDG is of particular interest as it looks to have formed a "pot hole" which quite often leads to a bullish break out when seen in this kind of pattern.If I get time I may draw the chart.

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 01/3/2013 16:48

Zub:

Well EMG did touch c95p today which represents the 50 dma s hopefully it will act as a support and things will improve from here on in.

Mr Bluesky

[zubieirboy] 28/2/2013 16:18

Thanks Mr Bluesky - sounds good!

[mr_bluesky] 28/2/2013 15:04

zub:

just had a quick look at the EMG chart and medium/long term all looks good.

It recently broke out of the descending resistence from early 2011 and just before that it "Golden crossed"

short term MACD has crossed down(fast through slow) so if you are looking for an entry I personaly would wait until it crossed back over and/or the price broke through 115p as that is the top of the recent mini rally.The 50dma is at about 95p so I would be suprised to see the price lower then that before a rebound.Infact it came pretty close to it today so the retrace could well be done.

If you are already in then I would say once 115p is broken through the next targets medium term will be c150p and c200p.

Thats my view on it!

Mr bluesky

[zubieirboy] 28/2/2013 12:01

Hi Mr Bluesky. Any views on EMG, results today looked ok, wondering what your charts say?

Zubieirboy

[mr_bluesky] 27/2/2013 19:02

THT chart 26/02/13:

Just thought I would post this chart as THT has come up against the descending resistence.A break through this and it gets really interesting and a break over horizontal resistence at cerca 67p and it gets even better IMHO.

Mr Bluesky

since posting this THT has broken through the descending resistence and looks to be setting up a high and tight flag pole.I would expect the flag to set up soon and that could be under the horizontal resistence at c67p

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 25/2/2013 23:17

Oh dear!

what have the good citizens of Italy done???

carnage on the Markets tomorrow!?

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 24/2/2013 16:44

BANKS!

With RBS and LLOY reporting finals next week I am hoping that LLOY will atlast fill the gap that I have been harping on about for so long now at 56-57.7p.

What I would like to see happen is for RBS's results on thursday to propel LLOY in a leap frog to over 56p and then for LLOY results on friday to get over 57.7p or dare I say 60p.If there ever was a time for this to happen before a market correction I think next week is it so it will be very interesting to see what happens.

I also have the FTSE penciled in to break through 6,400 next week to target 6,600,but will the uk credit rating down grade have any impact on the markets???

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 24/2/2013 15:01

PSN,RDW,TW.,BDEV and BVS are the builders reporting next week and they are all in bullish formations.

I find the PSN chart and the TW. one of interest so I will concentrate on those.


PSN chart 22/02/13. Price 909.5p

PSN has done well last year and this rising nearly 100% since the begining of 2012 and still looks in good health.In june 2012 the price crossed up through the 50dma and has pretty much rode up since in a nice up trend.This shows good strength.

Friday saw it break out of a bull flag at a high of 893p on good volume which says to me that the savvy are getting in before results next week.

MACD histogram has just gone positive and the RSI in the 60's and trending up indicates that a rally is about to kick start to target c1086 as a first point.Once through that then its c1500p.

Note on the chart that the last two times PSN went into over bought on the RSI it did not result in a pull back as such and the rise kept on going.This also shows it is very strong.

I would say that the price will react very well to finals on monday next week and push it well on its way to c1086 IMHO.


TW. (79.40p)

TW.'s chart is also looking well!

Its been in a nice gentle up trend since late 2010 from the low 20's and when it cleared 64p late last year it was significant as it meant that it had left behind some major resistences.there is one left though and that is c85p.Once this has been breached and held then 120p will be in its sights.

It has just formed a bull flag with a high of c76p and the last few days has seen it break out of that.

MACD has crossed over(fast over slow) a few days ago while over zero and RSI in the 60's is looking good.

TW. reports its finals on friday next week and,if the charts dont lie,I would hope to see that 85p resistence broken through for the assault onto 120p.

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 23/2/2013 10:39

the week behind:

Another pretty good week for key companies reporting with 12 out of the 18 closing the week up from the previous end of week close.My pick of CSR was one of the best performers and even though its q4's came out on a very bad market day it did'nt stop it jumping out of the up trending channel to rise 12% to close the day and looks to be set to continue its bullish run on the back of its upbeat update.....

Next week is a very busy one indeed with alot of the builders reporting along with the likes of LLOY and RBS.I have just had a quick look through all the charts of the companies reporting in the list below and a vast majority of them are in very bullish up trending channels unsuprisingly with the market rally.

As there are 37 companies reporting on the list I think I will concentrate on the builders and banks as I like the look of those for a good gain next week.I will comment and draw atleast one chart over the weekend.

Sticking my neck out I think the FTSE 100 will hit 6,400+ next week to target 6,600.


The Week Ahead

Key Companies Reporting: February 25th – March 1st

Monday – Finals: Bovis Homes (LON:BVS), Domino's Pizza (LON:DOM), Hiscox (LON:HSX), Pearson (LON:PSON), Persimmon (LON:PSN), Senior (LON:SNR), XPP Power (LON:XPP). Interims: Thorntons (LON:THT). Trading Announcement: AB Foods (LON:ABF).

Tuesday – Finals: CRH (LON:CRH), Devro (LON:DVO), GKN (LON:GKN), Provident Financial (LON:PFG) Interims: Redrow (LON:RDW). Trading Announcement: Whitbread (LON:WTB).

Wednesday – Finals: Carillion (LON:CLLN), Centrica (LON:CNA), Henderson Group (LON:HGG), Interserve (LON:IRV), ITV (LON:ITV). Interims: Barratt (LON:BDEV).

Thursday – Finals: British American Tobacco (LON:BATS), Interserve (LON:IRV), Capita (LON:CPI), International Consolidated Airlines (LON:IAG), Reed Elsevier (LON:REL), Royal Bank Scotland (LON:RBS), RPS (LON:RPS), Spirent Communications (LON:SPT), St James's Place (LON:STJ). Interims: Hays (LON:HAS) Trading Announcement Kazakhmys (LON:KAZ).

Friday – Finals: Hammerson (LON:HMSO), Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY), Old Mutual (LON:OML), Rentokil (LON:RTO), Rightmove (LON:RMV), Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW.), William Hill (LON:WMH), WPP (LON:WPP

[mr_bluesky] 22/2/2013 11:07

I commented on NTG on this thread when they reported so I thought I would post this on here as its going rather well.....

NTG chart 19/11/12:

Just dug up this chart from November 2012 when the price was 257p
The chart shows the progression to 349p as a medium term target and when it breaches this the road to recovery is wide open.

Mr Bluesky

[allstar4eva] 21/2/2013 19:40

Good call on CSR....

[mr_bluesky] 21/2/2013 17:10

CSR:

has closed the day up 12% on a very bad day across the boards today.Infact it was the ftse 250 top riser with the second best being SPD at 6% up.

its a shame CSR released Q4's today as I think we would be looking at a 20% plus rise,but you cant have it all and this break out has laid the foundations for futher gains.

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 21/2/2013 09:31

Zub:

Thanks for noticing!

Although I dont get many posters commenting on this and my other threads I am begining to realise that people do read them.Thats fine by me as I set my threads up as a diary rather then a chat forum although you are most welcome to contribute ;)

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 21/2/2013 09:27

...and there she goes! A break out on results as supected.


Q4 2012 Financial performance:

o Revenue of $249.2m (Q4 2011: $244.0m), Core revenue $155.6m increased 7% year-on-year (Q4 2011: $145.6m),

o Increased underlying Core gross margin of 59.2% (Q4 2011: 55.8%),

o IFRS operating profit of $117.5m (Q4 2011: loss of $50.6m) mainly due to the Samsung transaction,

o Underlying operating profit of $15.3m (Q4 2011: $0.6m).

· Momentum in platform strategy, with platform revenue 58% of reported revenues (Q4 2011: 56%):

o CSR Bluetooth® Smart solution utilised in One Key wireless smartphone remote control from LG Electronics,

o Introduced Sonata, CSR's first consumer Wi-Fi® streaming DLNA networked audio processor, at CES in January 2013.

· Continued technical innovation:

o Announced latest version of IPS™ Universal Print Interpreter software with support for new Apple and Google print protocols,

o Extended reach of aptX®low latency codec to gaming and automotive markets adding 22 aptX licencees during the quarter for a total of 120 at 28 December 2012,

o Winner of two industry awards: SiRFstarV™ and SiRFusion™ location technologies honoured by CES in Best of Innovation Design and Innovation Awards category; also named "Outstanding EMEA Semiconductor Company" by the Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA).

· Dividend and buyback:

o Proposed final dividend of $0.08 per ordinary share (2011: $0.071), representing a dividend of $0.118 per ordinary share for the financial year (2011 $0.103), an increase of 15% on 2011 full year dividend,

o Intention to return $50 million via buyback.



Joep van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer, said: "2012 has seen CSR accelerate its transformation, becoming a leader in integrated and differentiated technology platforms in several growing market segments. We delivered record revenues and underlying gross margins and ended the year with another good quarter with revenues at the top end of our guidance and increased underlying profits. The growth of our Core business has been especially pleasing with strong growth in Voice & Music and a solid performance by Auto.



"During the quarter, we successfully completed our tender offer and returned $285 million to our shareholders. We have ended the year with $333.3 million in cash and cash equivalents. Given the strength of our financial position, our confidence in future prospects and our focus on delivering returns to shareholders, the Board is recommending a final dividend of $0.08 per ordinary share, implying a full year increase of 15% year-on-year. In addition, we are proposing to return $50 million to shareholders via a share buyback.



"In 2013, we will continue to invest to develop our platforms in our five chosen markets of Auto, Voice & Music, Imaging, Bluetooth Smart and Indoors Location, which we believe hold good growth potential.



"Overall, our business continues to perform well, with continued strength in stereo Voice & Music. In addition, mono audio revenue growth in China driven by the enforcement of hands-free driving legislation and greater resilience in our Legacy business, is resulting in greater than expected revenues in the short term."



OUTLOOK

We expect first quarter revenues to be in the range of $215 million to $235 million

[zubieirboy] 21/2/2013 09:18

Mr_Bluesky, I am beginning to think you have the magic touch! Some great recommendations lately - keep it up!!

[mr_bluesky] 17/2/2013 12:14

CSR weekly chart 15/02/13: Price 387p

I have drawn the weekly chart as I think it shows a potential break out more clearly.

CSR has been in a general down trend with rallies since May 2006.On July 17th this year it sprang back into life with a big bull bounce with the announcement of the transformational "Samsung transaction"and has been in a gentle up trend ever since.It is now above the 200wma(weekly moving average) which is slightly up trending with the 50 wma below and trending up also.....positive signs!.

The MACD has just crossed over(fast over slow) while above zero and the RSI at c70,is well placed for a renewed rally.On break out the first target is c520p with the longer term goal to advance towards the gap down form sept 2006 between 1.109p and 910p.

The yellow line on the chart is the descending resistence and the price has just broken out of it which is a sign that a move up is not far away.

Fundamentaly,having looked at the Q3's from Oct 23rd 2012,things are all looking encouraging especialy with the "Samsung transaction"

With Q4's next week it could very well be the catalyst for the rally to re ingnite IMO.

Mr Bluesky

Here is the announcement that caused the bull bounce on 17th july 2012:

CSR plc ("CSR" or the "Company": LSE: CSR.L, NASDAQ: CSRE) today announces a transaction with Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd ("Samsung") and an associated return of capital, which will transform the profile of CSR's business and its growth prospects, accelerate its strategy of focusing on high growth markets where it has leadership positions and the ability to deliver differentiated platforms and products, and strengthen earnings per share.



CSR has entered into a conditional binding agreement with Samsung for the transfer of CSR's development operations in handset connectivity and location, including 310 people, together with certain rights over CSR's technology in these areas (the "Handset Operations") for a consideration of US$310 million in cash (the "Transaction"). None of the revenues associated with CSR's existing handset products will be transferred.



In addition, Samsung will invest US$34.4 million in return for new ordinary shares in CSR representing 4.9 per cent of the current issued share capital of the Company at a price of 223 pence per share on completion of the Transaction (the "Equity Investment").



Following completion of the Transaction, the Company intends to return up to US$285 million to holders of its ordinary shares and American Depositary Shares representing its ordinary shares ("ADSs"), comprising the net proceeds of the Transaction, the Equity Investment and the remaining US$40.5 million of the buy-back announced in February 2012 (the "Return of Capital").

CSR daily chart 19/10/12.

just looked back through my charts and this is not the first time it has come to my attention.

[mr_bluesky] 16/2/2013 17:16

The Week behind:

Well another pretty good week for the companies reporting from the list with only 5 out of 19 closing the week down and some good rallies from the 14 that closed up......




The Week Ahead

Key Companies Reporting: February 18th – 22nd

Monday – No significant company announcements due.

Tuesday – Finals: AZ Electronic Material (LON:AZEM), Brammer (LON:BRAM).

Wednesday – Finals: Rexam (LON:REX), RSA Insurance Group (LON:RSA), Spectris (LON:SXS), Travis Perkins (LON:TPK). Interims: BHP Billiton (LON:BLT), Galliford Try (GFRD).

Thursday – Finals: BAE Systems (BA.), CSR (CSR), Filtrona (FLTR), Informa, Ladbrokes (LON:LAD), Lancashire Holdings (LON:LRE), New World Resources (LON:NWR). Interims: Ashmore (LON:ASHM), Go Ahead Group (LON:GOG). Trading Announcement: Kingfisher (LON:KGF).

Friday – Finals: Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (LON:MLC)

Looking at the charts and most of them are in up trending channels again.Infact the only bearish ones are BA. and KGF.

The chart I really like for next week is CSR and I will draw it up over the weekend.

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 03/2/2013 16:34

Ok!

just looked at the charts for next week and no suprise again that there is alot of bullish ones.

I have singled out 4 shares that I believe to be in early stages of a long term recovery as that is the type of investment I like to get in on.Not only good for a short term trade,but ones I would be happy to go longer with and the chart patterns are pointing to that on these companies.Below is my choice and my short term comment.

SMP(247.5p):

MACD has just crossed over while above zero,RSI is at 60+ and the price has just broken out of the top of the Bollinger band on good volume.All bullish signs!

WLF(202p):

The price has broken through the 50dma and the 200dma and is now back testing and looking to be done.MACD is forming my break out pattern and RSI if looking to turn and trend up.Bullish!

GRI(132p):

Is on a nice solid run up the 50dma having golden crossed in October.Bullish!

AQP(70.5p):

50dma about to cross up through the 200dma,RSI in trending up and in the upper 50's and MACD is looking to cross up.Bullish!

with them all reporting in some shape or form next week lets see how they do!

Mr Bluesky

[mr_bluesky] 02/2/2013 08:41

Last week:

Well no major suprises last week for the key companies reporting.A mixed bag though with RYA,WMH,VED,MAB,SSE,BT.A and ECM(one I tipped for recovery) responding the best.Infact ECM has broken out of the bullish pattern in style,250p being the trigger point,and is now well on the way to my first target of 295p.

ETI disappointed and is now very bearish from being quite bullish and KAZ,TATE and AZN doing not so well either.

Most of the others either had small rises or small falls,but still remain firmly in their uptrend so could be a case of investors adjusting their portfolios.



The Week Ahead

Key Companies Reporting: February 4th – 8th

Monday – Finals: Randgold Resources (LON:RRS). Trading Announcement: 888 Holdings (LON:888).

Tuesday – Interims: ARM Holdings (LON:ARM), BG Group (LON:BG.), BP (LON:BP.), St Modwen Properties (LON:SMP). IMS: Victrex (LON:VCT).

Wednesday – Finals: GlaxoSmithkline (LON:GSK), Wolfson Electronics (LON:WLF). Interims: Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HL.). IMS: Grainger (LON:GRI).

Thursday – Finals: Beazley (LON:BEZ), Smith & Nephew (LON:SN.). Q1: Tui Travel (LON:TT.). Trading Announcement: Bellway (LON:BWY). IMS: Avon Rubber (LON:AVON), Supergroup (LON:SGP), Vodafone (LON:VOD).

Friday – Finals: Catlin Group (LON:CGL). Interims: Aquarius Platinum (LON:AQP). IMS: Shaftsbury (LON:SHB)

[cjohn] 31/1/2013 13:18

And no interest whatsoever in the company which is great news.

[cjohn] 29/1/2013 14:38

and ths share price responding.