4d Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[captain james t kirk] 22/10/2020 11:02

zydecoco
The Stigologist in his post claiming £100 in a little over 12 months, has not for the first time, drawn comparisons with Seres. Seres are currently trading at £21 a share or £1.88 million mkt cap, so why would 4D be 8 times this value in such a short time frame?
I prefer to work in market caps and that's why I quoted £15 billion at todays 150 million shares in issue for 4D. I also stated that this figure could conceivably rise in the next 12 months.
As a comparison one of the lead Pharma's in the IBS field is Bausch and their market cap is £4.60 billion. Do you now see the problem with his claim ?

[swallowsflysouth] 22/10/2020 10:48

Gives a little bit more background info

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/349a39a0-b0f0-4ab2-afef-019b3806c1ac/?utm_campaign=cityfalcon&utm_medium=cityfalcon&utm_source=cityfalcon

[captain james t kirk] 22/10/2020 10:45

Devonlad
I don't post much on the boards these days but I keep a constant watch on shares that I'm invested in or that are of interest to me.
When I do post I try to stick to the facts and my post number 12226 was to correct the view that there would be no dilution for 1-2 years expressed by someone else.
I'd have thought that "although to be welcomed" would have guided your thought process to the fact that I do not see placings as necessarily a bad thing, this is further supported by my comment in post 12233
"mf
Dilution is all part of the growth of ground breaking companies."
I haven't got a problem with the raising of cash per se, just that the facts are presented correctly.

[zydecoco] 22/10/2020 10:40

Stig has reasoned his valuations.Captain Kirk you have not. So instead of bandying silly bets around, state your reasoning.

[devonlad] 22/10/2020 10:24

Oh, there is a 2m shortfall in the number of shares the mm's need now, where are they coming from, that might also explain the bots being particularly aggressive in the drop, soaking up the weak sellers. When that line is gone, what will happen?

[the stigologist] 22/10/2020 10:22

SPACs are basically US versions of Cash Shells

We all know what can happen to cash shells if they do a good RTO

In the US everyone wants in on the lastest hot shell/SPAC

I expect 4D to be an easy sell because of the Merck $MRK link

The VTIQ SPAC deal that Nikola NKLA used to list on NASDAQ is a classic example

[devonlad] 22/10/2020 10:21

captain james t kirk
22 Oct '20 - 09:34 - 12226 of 12236
0 1 0
"No more dilution for 1-2 years."
How do you work that out when the company says that the cash runway now extends to the beginning of Qtr 3 2021. Although to be welcomed, that's 9 months.
And they are also at pains to mention the nearly $50 million of warrants to potentially be issued, do you not see that as potential dilution ?

Sorry to shoot you down but that is exactly the mindset that we need to move away from and adopt the American mindset of great, fundraising, this company can grow even faster. That is why DDDD is moving to the Nasdaq, to attract investors that want fast growing companies to grow even faster and why the majority of growth companies in the UK are moving to the Nasdaq. I would be happy if DDDD doubled the number of shares in issue to grow 5 times faster, the average UK investor just doesn't get that, nor do the institutions, that's why UKX is stagnant because there are few fast growing tech companies in it, just old oilers and supermarkets.

[blueblood] 22/10/2020 10:05

Tightly held on both sides will support explosive growth going forward.

[the stigologist] 22/10/2020 09:58

Interesting observation above re Seres valuation coming off 10% yesterday

If you were 'Inside' on 4D you'd still be able to trade Seres MCRB

Now US hedge funds will get straight choice between Seres and 4D I expect the valuation differential to be arbitraged very quickly

via 'paired trades' US hedge funds can increase their exposure to 4D / LOAC without increaing the net exposure of their balance sheet by simply going short MCRB

will be an easy no brainer trade which can accelerate the valuation gap closing

that is why I expect £10 by Q1 2021
and that's why i expect £100 by Q1 2022

ALSO worth noting LOAC is a tightly held RTO shell vehicle

IF this story is marketed right and 4D back it up with newsflow that stock could go nuts

[captain james t kirk] 22/10/2020 09:52

mf
Dilution is all part of the growth of ground breaking companies.
My concern is more about where the funds are coming from to support the growth.
It's virtually impossible to get any meaningful info on South Ocean Capital and Steve Oliveira. If anyone can provide it I'd be grateful.
And now it appears the Chinese are riding to the rescue:

I for one would like to see more substance on the share register. Perhaps that will only come with the Nasdaq listing.

[thepaddedcell] 22/10/2020 09:47

Change of tune here today but it wasn't unexpected, it was a company goal to announce NASDAQ listing plans sooner rather than later. Timing couldn't be better with so much going on within the company regarding significant projects and milestones to be reported upon in the coming weeks and months. This could all fall into line and benefit us all, well those still invested !

[blueblood] 22/10/2020 09:47

Warrant holders passed up 75% profit pre IBS results. They no where this is heading and it isn't a couple of quid!

[the stigologist] 22/10/2020 09:45

Lendacoit 22 Oct '20 - 09:29 - 12222

Not at liberty to divulge

Might be revealed in the book :-D

[mad foetus] 22/10/2020 09:41

I'm not sure dilution is something to worry about when the company is carrying out a land grab on a huge new field of medicine. How much damage has dilution caused TSLA?Got to look at the size of the opportunity imo.

[gooner1886] 22/10/2020 09:37

Bod putting MORE cash in, additional to the 2 placings this year where again twice they put cash in. Also bod are locked in for 12 months on listing on nasdaq?What more confidence do you need?

[fozzie] 22/10/2020 09:34

What's not to like. Bought at 56, 44 and doubled up at 107, lets see where this goes over the next few years.

[captain james t kirk] 22/10/2020 09:34

"No more dilution for 1-2 years."
How do you work that out when the company says that the cash runway now extends to the beginning of Qtr 3 2021. Although to be welcomed, that's 9 months.
And they are also at pains to mention the nearly $50 million of warrants to potentially be issued, do you not see that as potential dilution ?

[blueblood] 22/10/2020 09:33

Be interesting to see if there is buying pressure from over pond after lunch.

[realist1950] 22/10/2020 09:32

ThresholdBypass. Obviously we knew about their NASDAQ aspirations prior to the Blautix update, and I'm sure they were making progress in that department. But I can't help think the completely overdone mkt reaction has encouraged and motivated them to do a deal. It's very good news and I'm pleased to see it.

As I have said for several months, for me it's all about the Oncology and the extended U.S. trial. This 'open' study will reveal data on an ongoing basis. We are likely to receive an update by the end of 2020 and as we know there will be three announcements in as many, consecutive days next month.

I also maintain my position on Blautix and reiterate my thoughts that this will be successfully sent to phase 3 with a partner. This is more an expectation, as apposed to 'hope' on my part.

The other two sources of news are the Asthma and Covid trials.

Given that the Covid trial has, to date, experienced issues in patient recruitment, should this change (and it may already have done so) an update on dosing stats and any signals of early efficacy would bring significant interest. Remember, it's only a 14 day study for each patient.

All in all, the company is priced to fail at present:

At the current price, no value AT ALL is attributed to Covid, Asthma, IBS....OR indeed ANY of our burgeoning work in the CNS space.

Our work in Oncology, given the efficacy / success seen to date, our vastly expanded trial in the US (which has seen good patient recruitment), together with the kudos of being partnered with a blue chip name is similarly given scant valuation.

We are more than underpinned by our IP portfolio, discovery platform and inherent knowledge base - which is market leading.

So if the BOD know they can access ready and willing investment in the US I am very much behind their efforts to 'go get'.

Next stop is a series of three presentations next month on two consecutive days.

Good luck and ADYOR as ever.

Rgds.

[deanmatlazin] 22/10/2020 09:29

Bought this morning. The merger add $14m in the kitty and Nasdaq listing may easily doubling up the market cap. No more dilution for 1-2 years.

[lendacoit] 22/10/2020 09:29

The Stigologist21 Oct '20 - 23:28 - 12109 of 12204
Hi stig is it true you made and lost tens of millions of pounds? If so which were your best and worst trades? And what are your present trades?

[1azman] 22/10/2020 09:29

I like you Stig and really look out for your messages, but please, throwing them random predictions out doesn't help anyone on the board. Just makes you lose credibility on a forum where you certainly have the most.

[gooner1886] 22/10/2020 09:26

Notice a few names missing kcowe, justtrying and intheknowYou would have thought after this mornings RNS they may have appeared lolol.We live and learn chaps , we live and learn

[s34icknote] 22/10/2020 09:25

I've added as well .Rude not too!!