1pm Share Discussion Threads

[santangello] 03/12/2018 11:47

I don't really use or understand, or rely on charts......my friend, however, swears by them and makes a lot of profit from them.

I prefer facts.....we'll wait and see who wins, hopefully him and us invested here both.

[dround87] 03/12/2018 11:35

Not complaining though!

[dround87] 03/12/2018 11:34

I wouldn't have thought this is anywhere near liquid enough to bother with charts.

[santangello] 03/12/2018 11:25

Bouncing off the support line, as expected.

My chart analyst friend (I don't use charts though), tells me these are showing a strong buy signal and retrace to recent highs.

Trading update should help me thinks.....if it is positive.

[hatfullofsky] 03/12/2018 09:40

Lower lows towards the update, is this being walked down ?

Good trading updates
Acquisitions hitting targets - Positive Cashflow

Or did this AGM statement spook investors "and, in aggregate, in line with market expectations"

Not sure about an update (hope so), there was a pretty detailed one last year but we got a less detailed one at the AGM (which we didn't last year).

[podgyted] 02/12/2018 14:56

Do people think there will be a trading update this week?

[hiraniha] 28/11/2018 18:25

Hi,I added at 43 pence this afternoon.Absurdly cheap stock, I reckon.

[santangello] 28/11/2018 13:19

Just the distressed seller clearing.....there are shrewd buyers here.Absurdly cheap at these artificially suppressed levels.I continue to add.

[the oak tree] 22/11/2018 11:55

Its about greed and fear.

Buy when people most want to sell, and sell when they most want to buy.

Just be sure that you don't pay too much whatever you do. For me that means blue sky stocks aren't normally worth it.

Oh and in the long term being in the stockmarket (ie buying the market) makes you money, so dont be out too long.

Most know the above, the trick is actually being able to follow it!

GLA

[dround87] 22/11/2018 10:36

Yeah I know only joking

[eagle eye] 22/11/2018 10:09

dround87,
This is a symptom of poor market sentiment.
Any good news ignored and any bad news severely punished.

GHF,
Thanks for your comprehensive post. You are spot on with the current reality.

[dround87] 22/11/2018 09:44

I'm unveiling a new trading strategy. I'm going to sell on good news and buy on bad news. Reckon I'll do alright!Thanks for the great posts BTW

[p1nkfish] 21/11/2018 23:56

GHF, thank you.

[glasshalfull] 21/11/2018 20:22

Wanttowin - Thanks for the response. You are correct. They aren’t attending Mello London AIU. Can’t provide any reason.

They engaged with investors at Mello Derby in April over the course of 2-days...presenting on both days & fielding questions at their stand in the venue. Went down very well.

maiken - Think you’ve answered your own question. It would send a strong message though if they bought in the market. I’ll leave it at that.

Kind regards
GHF

[maiken] 21/11/2018 20:13

genuine question to GHF,Davidosh et al...why do you think Executive Directors have not been buying their own shares? They've never,to my knowledge,been buyers in any meaningful way.
[I know they gave themselves a chunk of nil cost options a year or so ago]

I ask as a holder of 1PM.

[wanttowin] 21/11/2018 20:00

Thanks for once again an excellent post GHF.

I was thinking that you might be able to glean the very latest OPM news from your visit to Mello London this weekend, but from what I see they don't appear to be attending the event.

[glasshalfull] 21/11/2018 19:27

OPM

Good evening folks,

I rarely post on ADVFN these days but looked in following the OPM shareprice hitting year lows today. That’s the shareprice down (-30%) in just over 2 months despite the reassuring AGM statement 3-weeks ago!

A delayed trade of 402k shares @38p appears responsible for today’s decline with much of the stock turned round as buyers emerged @42.5 - 43p to mop up much of it. However, the company don’t appear able to attract much in the way of institutional support, even though they are forecast to deliver 6.8p EPS in the current year & 7.7p next year. That’s a fairly derisory rating of PER 6.3 & 5.6 respectively after pencilling in 13% earnings growth.

While I’m here, courtesy to update that I enjoyed a meeting with the company in early November. Flagged a v brief update on Twitter at the time (link below).



The AGM statement didn’t mention provisioning so I clarified the current position. The company confirmed there had been NO change to their low level of impairment provision, emphasising that their approach had been validated through the application of IFRS 9 which highlighted a negligible impact and confirmed their cautious approach to provisioning.

I also confirmed the wording of the AGM statement & use of the phrase, “in aggregate” following a few emails I’d received that questioned whether this meant if some Divisions were performing better than others & therefore if this alluded to weakness elsewhere across some of the divisions.

(See extract below)

"Trading for the first four months of the current financial year shows further growth compared with the same period last year, with new business origination, revenue and profits all in line with the Board's expectations for each of the Group's operating divisions and, in aggregate, in line with market expectations.

In explanation, the company said they didn’t realise that this may be misinterpreted & confirmed ALL Divisions were performing per expectation & thus no other inference should be derived from this phraseology.

The AGM statement also confirmed,

"The continuing robust levels of demand experienced across the Group reflect the Board's strategy of being a multi-product provider of finance to UK SMEs (asset, vehicle, loan and invoice finance) and the effective, flexible business model of acting as both a funder and a broker.

"With early indications that the Group's strong trading has been maintained in October, the Board is optimistic of reporting further progress for the first half of the current financial year. The interim results and a proposed interim dividend will be announced in mid-January 2019."

Again, they confirmed that they were experiencing strong trading as per the statement & surprised at the value the market were attributing to the business...& this was when the share price was 10% higher than today’s!!!

As Davidosh mentions, the placing undertaken with institutions was deeply damaging. Cenkos failed to bring on-board institions with a long-term view. As far as I understand, most that came on-board in the placing have now departed & appear simply to have flipped the stock for short-term gain than helping OPM build for the future. This episode damaged investor sentiment considerably in the process & this has left a cloud over the shares for the last 18 months.

In conclusion, the acquisitions have bedded in well & the company have released a series of positive updates throughout 2018; delivered organic growth throughout the business; established a progressive dividend policy; mitigated risk through lending & broking. But current macro conditions aren’t helping the shareprice (nor stock being dumped @38p). Also the anticipation that M Nolan will be selling his holding down may also be acting as an overhang. I would contend though that if /when he is looking to sell it would be most certainly executed off-market rather than the perception of many PI’s that it could be drip-sold onto the market.

Ultimately I think that OPM are a sitting duck at the current price.

Consider for a moment the prospect of say a challenger bank looking to acquire a specialist finance provider. OPM now have £145m lending book & decent track record across each of their operating divisions. They are also marooned on a distressed rating. Any such acquirer could remove PLC costs & exploit synergistic benefits (remove further duplicate costs). Any such acquirer could also improve margins through lowering OPM’s current cost of borrowing through access to cheaper funds through its own retail deposits.

Just a thought 🤔

Kind regards,
GHF

[dround87] 21/11/2018 19:05

Let's hope. We deserve better! That's small cap for you.

[hatfullofsky] 21/11/2018 17:55

@14:55 with the quote at 42 / 43.5

Apart from that trade there was good buying from 15:00 - Seller cleared ?

Largest volume day since early September

Bloody well hope so, should be interesting tomorrow

[cheshire man] 21/11/2018 17:48

402,713 @ 38p

[dround87] 21/11/2018 17:40

Massive delayed buy at stupid price.

[podgyted] 21/11/2018 17:30

They should keep quiet about awards in the future.

[speedsgh] 21/11/2018 16:38

Hmm. I see their broker for the Placing was (and still is) Cenkos. Ex-broker to Quindell & current broker to Mercantile Ports and Logistics Ltd (MPL) who seem to court controversy. I would concur with davidosh that appointing a more reputable broker might be a wise step to help draw a line under the 2017 OPM placing saga.

I note that Jim Durkin, who was CEO of Cenkos at the time of the OPM placing, has recently been reappointed CEO. He announced his intention to leave the day before the announcement of the OPM placing, stepped down as CEO on 1/8/17 and left the company on 31/12/17. The Finance Director also resigned with immediate effect on 4/8/17. I believe part of the remit of the replacement CEO, Anthony Hotson, was to reform the company's governance & processes but Cenkos appear to have struggled to win business under his leadership. One wonders whether Durkin's reappointment means that improved culture/governance will again take a backseat in the pursuit of improved results for the broker?

[davidosh] 21/11/2018 16:32

I do not think the exiting director will sell at such low levels....I was part of a group that were prepared to buy them off him at a price linked to the market at 45p but no deal. The problem is all retail investors can see him in the background waiting to sell.