U.K. Vaccine Rollout Data Shows Substantial Drop in Infections -- Update

By Jason Douglas and Max Colchester 

LONDON -- The U.K.'s rollout of Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE's Covid-19 vaccine has led to a substantial drop in infections in people 80 and over, according to preliminary data that adds to a growing body of evidence that the shots provide significant if not complete protection against the disease.

The data from the U.K., published Monday, is preliminary and hasn't been reviewed by other scientists. It provides reasons for optimism that vaccines offer a route out of a pandemic that has claimed at least 2.5 million lives world-wide and sickened tens of millions.

New data includes an analysis of the effect of vaccinations in the elderly, a study looking at infection among vaccinated and unvaccinated healthcare workers, and a broad look at vaccinations in Scotland that covered more than five million people.

England's public health agency said that one shot of the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech led to a 57% reduction in cases of Covid-19 in people aged 80 or over, compared with what would have been expected had they not received a shot. This rose to 88% after a second dose.

Hospitalization rates fell 41% just 14 days after injection and the chance of dying from the disease was more than halved among those immunized.

A separate analysis of healthcare workers showed the vaccine reduced Covid-19 infections by 72% three weeks after one dose, rising to 86% after a second shot. The apparent protection offered is lower than suggested in the unusual conditions of clinical trials, an outcome scientists expected in a real-world rollout. Similarly, scientists said it isn't a surprise that protection appears lower in the very old, a phenomenon seen with other vaccinations.

The U.K. government said there wasn't yet enough data to give a readout of the effectiveness of a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca PLC, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson said early evidence suggested it also offered "a good level of protection" against the disease.

The data was published on the day the U.K. government outlined a plan for England to slowly emerge from a lockdown in place since Jan. 4. It will start with reopening schools on March 8. The government aims to remove most social-distancing restrictions by June 21 at the earliest. All Britons are due to be offered vaccinations by the end of July.

Researchers in Scotland earlier Monday published a preliminary analysis of 5.4 million health records showing similar results. They found that hospitalizations with Covid-19 were 85% lower among those receiving a single dose of Pfizer's shot a month after injection, compared with those who didn't get vaccinated. A single dose of the AstraZeneca shot led to a 94% reduction in hospitalizations.

The data from the vaccine rollout in the U.K. -- where around a third of the population has received one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine so far -- doesn't answer the question of whether the vaccines cut transmission of the disease.

The data echoes positive findings from Israel, one of very few countries to have inoculated a larger share of its population against the coronavirus than the U.K. The initial findings appear to vindicate a decision by the U.K. government to focus on giving single shots of the vaccine to a wider range of people.

However, scientists cautioned that it is too early to say how long protection conferred by the vaccine will last. Another uncertainty is whether the virus will mutate and render current vaccines ineffective.

The U.K. data paints a similar picture to preliminary real-world data from Israel. A preliminary analysis published online and not yet reviewed by other scientists looked at rates of infection and hospitalization among people over 60 in Israel -- the first group given priority for vaccination -- and younger age groups in the month through Feb. 6.

The authors found that the number of people over 60 admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 was more than a third lower than it was Jan. 15. New cases among that age group almost halved. Cases and hospitalizations among younger age groups rose over the same period. A separate study found vaccinated individuals had much lower levels of virus in their bodies, implying the shot reduces the risk of onward infection.

Another study, published Feb. 14 by Clalit, Israel's largest healthcare provider, recorded 94% fewer symptomatic Covid-19 infections among 600,000 people who received two doses of Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine compared with an unvaccinated group the same size. The vaccinated group was also 92% less likely to develop severe illness from the disease.

In the U.S., the share of Covid-19 cases accounted for by residents of nursing homes steadily declined over the first six weeks of the year, an early sign the vaccination drive is working. Nursing-home residents and staff were among the first to get shots.

No major Western nation has approved or rolled out vaccines as fast as the U.K. The country started distributing the Pfizer vaccine back in December to people over 80, and healthcare workers. Britain is on track to offer vaccines to all people 50 and older by the end of April.

Despite the largely positive findings, the U.K. is still under lockdown and several months away from fully reopening, a reminder that even with a fast-track vaccination program it can take time for life to return to normal. The prime minister recently warned that no vaccine is 100% effective and that high infection levels could still lead to high mortality rates.

Though the data shows vaccine efficiency below the 95% shown in the Pfizer trials, government scientists were upbeat about the findings. In the U.K. the group who got the shot were largely older people aged 70 or above who have weaker immune systems than younger peers. The clinical trials focused largely on people aged 55 or under.

It is normal for the vaccines to trigger a slightly weaker immune response as they are initially rolled out among the elderly, said Jeremy Brown, who advises the government. Another reason government advisers are upbeat is that the trial results point to the vaccines being highly effective at preventing serious disease and death by Covid-19, Prof. Brown added, which eases pressure on the country's health system.

Scientists have said that new variants of the virus, including one from South Africa that has been found in the U.K. and shown some resistance to existing vaccines, will necessitate the development of second- and third- generation shots. Mr. Johnson said he anticipates that those vulnerable to the disease will need to get an updated booster dose in the fall.

The successful rollout of the vaccine vindicates a decision by the British government to bet big and early on vaccines. In April last year, as the first wave of the pandemic peaked, the government's chief scientific adviser decided that a specialized vaccine task force needed to be set up. The government went on to secure 400 million doses from seven different pharmaceutical companies. U.K. regulators have already approved three vaccines for use.

The data also vindicates another British bet: British officials decided to spread limited initial vaccine supplies more thinly by widening the gap between doses to up to 12 weeks from just three recommended by Pfizer and four for AstraZeneca.

The decision, questioned by U.S. scientists and some British medics but recently endorsed in the case of AstraZeneca by the World Health Organization, has helped the country hit a target of offering a first dose to the top four most vulnerable groups by Feb. 15, who account for 88% of deaths to the disease, the U.K. government said.

--Joanna Sugden contributed to this article.

Write to Jason Douglas at [e-mail] and Max Colchester at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 22, 2021 13:32 ET (18:32 GMT)

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