Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[swiss paul] 30/10/2019 20:40

Peel Hunt LLP Position of previous notification (if applicable) 10.25% Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached 11.40% 5. Date on which the threshold was crossed or reachedvi: 25/10/2019 Someone has faith!

[jpuff] 30/10/2019 12:28

Ditto still holding out for a miracle recovery now!

[yump] 28/10/2019 10:33

At this level I imagine the market cap is going to be a fraction of revenue, rather than a multiple. Problem is likely to be the level of admin. costs and losses in relation to existing schemes that remain within ASH. The forward pipeline of F1 Modular on its own is over £10mln, but I'm not sure I trust management to sort out the problems they've got. Mainly because all the positive noises and prospects were not expressed that long ago and then suddenly there's a crisis. Either that is the BOD deluding themselves and not in touch with reality, or they've really mis-managed the risks. The share price is something else. Looks like pi's have 'rescued' their money at whatever price they can get. I've just left mine in - its been there for donkey's years anyway doing nothing.

[yump] 25/10/2019 17:30

topvest To be fair you called this right with your doubts about the way in which that £4mln was dealt with. Not sure about the actual accounts, but they were quite opaque in making it tricky to see what the situation would have been without it. Sometimes you just have to have some faith especially with the apparent start of a tailwind, although tailwinds that are supposed to come from government or local government in any shape or form are quite likely to end up as headwinds from what I've seen in the past. Hopefully my much larger investment in SRT, despite overseas government (!!!) headwinds will more than compensate for ASH shortly. I say shortly meaning in the next year, which is not much having waited xx years.

[norbert colon] 24/10/2019 19:24

No it's not a confirmed order.

[topvest] 24/10/2019 19:01

Odds on to go bust / delist in my view. Too many red flags. It will be a shame as they have tried hard and ridden the various disasters quite well.

[rp19] 24/10/2019 19:00

Do you know if the Doncaster hotel project is a confirmed order? I was under the impression that it wasn't.

[topvest] 24/10/2019 18:58

The Modular construction business foray is likely to be their undoing in my view. They should buy the modular construction in the market, rather than dabbling at this sort of nonsense. I'd be amazed if it ever makes a profit. The market doesn't think it will!

[microscope] 24/10/2019 18:55

From the interims 'F1M is making good progress and the diversification of the business continues'. The Doncaster project, for example, should add real substance to their numbers going forward imho. That said, I think we will only have something worthwhile to make a full analysis when the results are published and we can get a clearer picture of what damage the MS situation has inflicted on the overall company - and until then I expect to stay on the sidelines because imho uncertainty is likely to continue. Thanks Norbert for your analysis, it's good to have someone who understands the sector. Someone else still describing F1M as a start up betrays a lack of understanding of the business imho! ;)

[topvest] 24/10/2019 18:55

I don't need any help with this one. If it looks like a dog, then it probably is. Its just a low margin contractor and I mean very low margin indeed! Its accounts don't even comply with the Companies Act.

[yump] 24/10/2019 18:38

F1 Modular is a startup. Some startups turn out to be dogs, some don't. Basic Venn diagram might help you.

[topvest] 24/10/2019 18:35

Look at the F1 Modular statutory accounts - lost £1.2m in 2018 and break-even the year before. Not difficult to see that its a dog!

[dave4545] 23/10/2019 15:55

Is that a market maker position via Peel Hunt ?

[norbert colon] 22/10/2019 16:30

My latest thoughts:https://cube.investments/ashley-house-reflection-on-a-painful-lesson-ash/

[scburbs] 22/10/2019 07:43

Presumably the next phoenix is set to be affordable housing using modular construction. Sounds like a good idea to me and I am convinced they could build an excellent pipeline(!) of new business in this area.

[yump] 21/10/2019 21:47

You could try supporting your statement about modular

[topvest] 21/10/2019 20:19

The end appears to be drawing in here unfortunately. They won't make any money on modular in my view, and they haven't got a partner like the old days on health centres.

[dave4545] 21/10/2019 19:17

Surprised the market makers took on so many lumpy sales today. Almost every decent trade was a sale, it's done well to close above 4p considering

[yump] 21/10/2019 11:48

Well they're still involved with MS via the health sector, but the comment about that contains no details. In the end the deal didn't unlock anything at all much and if that bit of the market is still subject to unpredictable funding delays, then ASH were not and are not large enough to cope with it. The question arises as to whether the JV was actually not an unlocking move, but mainly a rescue move. ASH generally seem to have been quite honest in what has been a difficult market for some time, but I'm not sure whether to give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the positive noises made about the JV. Was entry to the whole extra care sector just a big error in judgement in the first place ? This is now a bit of a play on the future of modular, plus whatever appears that is not in the extra care sector. 12 employees off the payroll - that's at least £600k ?

[microscope] 21/10/2019 10:46

I'm very disappointed. The Morgan Ashley deal unlocked a 200+ million pipeline. Now that's mostly gon,e together with the expertise and co-operation with an important player in the sector. And this cash plugs in the company's own words a 'short-term' funding gap. It doesn't do any more. now it's a case of valuing what's left and figuring out a fair market cap for the rump. I haven't got round to trying to do that yet, but the guts have been taken away from the company in my view.

[dibs61] 21/10/2019 09:54

No mention of the net debt in today’s announcement. As of the previous interim report in January net debt ratio was running at just over 50% of the current valuation. Net debt was £1.49m. No mention of whether any of the monies raised will be used to repay some of that debt. How serviceable is it when revenue is so lumpy? I’m sure the market has held a long term concern about the debt and that is also reflected in the share price

[yump] 21/10/2019 09:12

Think I'll leave my bit in and see what comes out in a few years. Not going to sell at the point of worst news - although of course it might not be the worst. Wait to see what the stuff about working with MS in the health space actually means, because MS were already working in the health space. Is that a dressing up comment or are MS just being kind ? Looking back, although being presented as an opportunity (which it would have been if the delays had cleared), the JV may well have been 50% a rescue package. So its not easy to decide whether ASH dressed it up deliberately to look better than it was, or whether they simply deceived themselves. One thing is for certain, something needs to change at gov and local gov level. I'm surprised any businesses want to do any work in this space.

[dave4545] 21/10/2019 08:57

Think the mm's did me a favour earlier not letting me buy.

[dibs61] 21/10/2019 08:54

I’m out I’m afraid. No way is this positive news. What have they got left? It will take time to rebuild the business and I can’t see that happening anytime soon. It will keep them afloat sure, but little else imho.