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EMEA Morning Briefing: Stocks to Fall as Volatility Expected to Continue

03/10/2022 5:30am

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Manufacturing PMI data for Eurozone, Germany, France, UK, Italy; EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity; update from Ryanair

Opening Call:

European stock futures point to losses at the start of the week. Major Asian stock benchmarks were mixed in holiday-thinned trading; Treasury yields fell; the dollar weakened slightly; while oil and gold gained.


Shares in Europe look set to decline at the open on Monday as further turbulence is likely.

U.S. stocks fell Friday, closing out a losing week, month and quarter as investors wrestled with more signs of persistently high inflation.

With the Fed signaling it is committed to bring inflation under control, investors have grown fearful that its campaign of rate increases will meaningfully slow the economy.

"In the trade-off between growth and inflation, the Fed is going to choose inflation," said Desmond Lawrence, senior investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. "That's what's really giving you the choppiness that we've had in the past week in particular."

Read: Stocks and bonds are 'discounting for a disaster' after the worst stretch for investors in 20 years


The dollar pulled back slightly, though USD is likely to be supported.

Financial-market turmoil has yet to abate even after the BOE stepped in with an emergency bond-purchase program, which may put downward pressure on major currencies such as GBP, MUFG Bank said.

Read: A rampaging U.S. dollar just booked its strongest quarter in at least 7 years as investors search for safety


Treasury yields declined early Monday in Asia, after finishing the New York session on Friday with their biggest multiquarter rise in at least a quarter-century, as investors positioned for aggressively higher interest rates this year.

In comments made at a conference in New York on Friday, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said policy makers won't pull back from rate hikes prematurely and that it will take time for high interest rates to bring inflation down.

Data released Friday underscored her point. While the personal consumption expenditure gauge of U.S. inflation rose a mild 0.3% in August, another measure that omits volatile food and energy costs jumped 0.6% last month - above Wall Street's 0.5% forecast for core PCE - in a more worrisome sign. The rate of inflation over the past year slowed to 6.2% from 6.4% in the prior month. However, the core rate of inflation in the past 12 months climbed to 4.9%.

Read: Battered Investors Now Find Thrills in T-Bills


Oil futures climbed in Asia on prospects that OPEC+ may cut production.

The group is poised to consider on Wednesday a cut of more than 1 million barrels a day to help support declining oil prices, according to delegates in the group.

Other options being considered include a smaller reduction of 500,000 barrels a day or as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, the delegates said.


Gold prices edged higher early Monday amid prospects for lower Treasury yields and an improving China outlook.

Things are beginning to look better for the precious metal, said Oanda's Edward Moya.

Wall Street seems confident that the Fed's tightening might be close to a peak, while China has taken moves to support the housing market and Beijing might be closer to making a gradual adjustment to its zero-Covid policy, Moya added.


Copper futures declined, pulling back from last week's gains.

However, ANZ said the metal may be getting some support after an earlier selloff pushed down prices, while rising supply concerns could keep buying interest high after the London Metal Exchange said it was looking at blocking Russian metal from being delivered to its network of warehouses.

"This could have significant ramifications" as Russia is a major copper producer, ANZ noted.



OPEC+ to Weigh Production Cut to Bolster Oil Prices

OPEC+ is set to consider Wednesday its most drastic reduction of production since the pandemic in order to help prop up falling oil prices, a move that could put pressure on global economic growth.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Moscow-led allies, collectively known as OPEC+, is considering a cut of more than 1 million barrels a day, delegates in the group said.


U.K.'s Central Banker Faces Inflation, a Financial Crisis and His Own Government

LONDON-In late August, Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey was at a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., when a New York University economist flagged a problem. In a world where central banks are quickly raising interest rates to calm inflation, they might face an unexpected crunch in financial markets and need to flood them with liquidity to prevent a market meltdown.

Mr. Bailey, a bookish, soft-spoken Brit, stood up in the hall and said such an about-face would be a tough sell to investors and the public since it would undermine the fight against inflation. It "is a very difficult message to get across to the outside world," he said.


Cargo Shipowners Cancel Sailings as Global Trade Flips From Backlogs to Empty Containers

Ocean carriers are canceling dozens of sailings on the world's busiest routes during what is normally their peak season, the latest sign of the economic whiplash hitting companies as inflation weighs on global trade and consumer spending.

The October cancellations are a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, when scarce shipping space pushed freight rates higher and carriers' profits to record levels. Last October, companies like Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. were chartering their own ships to get around bottlenecks at ports to meet a surge in demand for imports.


Central Banks' Higher Rates, Bond Sales Clash With Government Needs

FRANKFURT-Central banks and governments are on a collision course.

For 15 years, central bankers around the world worked hand in glove with elected leaders to bolster economic growth and inflation.


Inflation Keeps the U.S. From Stepping In to Slow Dollar's Rapid Rise

WASHINGTON-U.S. policy makers aren't likely to take action to slow the dollar's rapid rise despite rising risks of global financial turmoil, analysts say, largely because a strong greenback helps fight domestic inflation.

The U.S. dollar has soared in value as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight the highest U.S. inflation in decades and investors move money into dollar-denominated assets. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, is up roughly 16% so far this year.


U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss Admits Mistake in Communicating Economic Plan

LONDON-U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss said that her government could have done a better job preparing financial markets for a surprise tax-cut plan funded by increased debt, but otherwise defended the package of economic measures.

"We should have laid the ground better," Ms. Truss said in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp. on Sunday. It was her first acknowledgement that her signature policy since taking office last month had fallen flat among investors, voters and some members of her own party.


Probe Into Nord Stream Pipeline Damage Faces Hurdles at Sea, Ashore

When Bjorn Lund's team at the Swedish National Seismic Network first recorded tremors in the Baltic Sea, it didn't initially notice anything unusual.

The area, off the coasts of Denmark and Sweden, is used for naval exercises by both countries. The institute, part of Uppsala University, regularly records the impact of explosive blasts there.


Credit Suisse Seeks to Calm Market Jitters

Credit Suisse Group AG tried to assuage fears about its health in a memo to employees and in a round of phone calls to investors and clients over the weekend, according to people familiar with the matter.

Credit Suisse shares are down 21% this month and spreads on its credit-default swaps, a type of insurance against default, rose to their highest level of the year on Friday. The deteriorated market condition indicates that Credit Suisse could struggle to raise new shares to pay for a planned restructuring and that its funding costs could rise sharply.


Rio Tinto Calls for ERA Chairman to Resign

SYDNEY-Rio Tinto PLC said it is seeking the resignation of the chairman of Energy Resources of Australia Ltd., citing differences over the approach to rehabilitating the tapped-out Ranger uranium mine in northern Australia.

Rio Tinto said ERA Chairman Peter Mansell should step down as the small mining company had failed to put forward an acceptable funding solution to meet its obligations to rehabilitate the Ranger site. Rio Tinto owns around 86% of ERA's stock.


Russia's Gazprom Suspends Gas Flow to Italy

Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC said it suspended its natural-gas deliveries to Italy over the weekend after it didn't receive authorization for the pipeline flows via Austria.

It wasn't immediately clear whether the interruption was a temporary bureaucratic glitch, or whether Italy has now joined the growing list of European Union countries that have been cut off from Russian gas.


ConEd Agrees to Sell Clean Energy Business for $6.8 Billion to RWE

Consolidated Edison Inc. has agreed to sell its renewable energy business to German energy company RWE AG for $6.8 billion, the companies said Saturday.

The deal nearly doubles RWE's renewable energy portfolio in the U.S. and will make it the second-largest solar operator in the country, the company said in a statement. ConEd's portfolio includes more than 10 gigawatts of renewable projects in operation or under development.


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Expected Major Events for Monday

00:01/IRL: Sep Ireland Manufacturing PMI

06:30/SWI: Sep CPI

07:00/TUR: Sep Turkey Manufacturing PMI

07:00/NED: Sep Netherlands Manufacturing PMI

07:00/POL: Sep Poland Manufacturing PMI

07:00/TUR: Sep PPI

07:00/TUR: Sep CPI

07:15/SPN: Sep Spain Manufacturing PMI

07:30/EU: Sep EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity

07:30/CZE: Sep Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI

07:30/SWI: Sep Purchasing Managers' Index

07:45/ITA: Sep Italy Manufacturing PMI

07:50/FRA: Sep France Manufacturing PMI

07:55/GER: Sep Germany Manufacturing PMI

08:00/GRE: Sep Greece Manufacturing PMI

08:00/EU: Sep Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

08:30/UK: Sep S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI

09:00/DEN: Sep Danish PMI

09:00/CYP: Jul Retail trade

10:00/POR: Aug Industrial production index

16:59/AUT: Sep Unemployment figures

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 03, 2022 00:15 ET (04:15 GMT)

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