Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Goodbody Health Limited AQSE:GDBY Aquis Stock Exchange Ordinary Share GG00BP6KMG85
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 2.50 0.00 16:29:58
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1.50 4.00 2.50 2.50 2.50
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- 0 2.50 GBX

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Posted at 19/1/2022 07:47 by sifi1
Arden Initiating with Buy, 10p PT; Time to move the needle GBDY.PZ

We initiate coverage on Goodbody Health Group with a buy rating and 10p price target. Goodbody is a holistic wellness company embarking on an exciting period of growth. It has recently diversified and repositioned its strategy to deepen its clinical offering and take advantage of the long-term structural themes driving customer attitudes to health and wellbeing - which we believe the market is yet to give it value for. With a 40% ROE, Revenue 20A-23E CAGR of 210%, very strong EBITDA growth and at an 85% valuation discount to industry peers (private clinical lab providers), we’re firm in our view that Goodbody offers great long-term value to investors. Buy.

Key Investment Rationale. We base our thesis on several key factors: (1) A diversified product portfolio, aided by a strong clinical services segment; (2) A supportive policy environment following the implementation of the NHS Long Term plan and (3) Strong wellness thematic tailwinds

Forecasts: growth and profitability to accelerate. We forecast consolidated sales of £16.0m in the upcoming year (FY21E), rising to £35.1m in FY22E and £59.4m in FY23E representing a 3-year CAGR of +210% (FY20A-FY23E). We expect the group to be earnings positive by H1 ’22 and are forecasting an EBITDA 21-23E CAGR of over 300%. We’d expect any margin contractions from changes to mix to be greatly offset by top line increases

Valuation and outlook. We base our price target of 10p on an FY2022E P/E of 11x which implies a FY22E EV/EBITDA of 6.8x – a 178% upside to the current price. We believe this to be justified in light of the projected growth (we forecast gross profit will increase at a 21-23E CAGR of +82.3%), strong returns on capital and the potential for significant upside to our numbers. However, we do acknowledge the early staged nature of this strategy, which brings with it some level of execution risk.

Upcoming Catalysts. We expect full year results for FY21 and Q1 & Q2 financials to form key near term catalysts. The quarterly results in the 1st half of FY22 will provide added insight into how the Group is progressing in executing on its strategy to penetrate the blood testing market. We lay out further catalysts in more detail in the note.

Key Data (GBDY.PZ)

Market Capitalisation £10.9m

Shares in Issue 302.6m

Free Float 65.6%

Average Daily Volume (k) 46

12 Month Trading Range 3p - 7p

for reference Arden rate a BUY a 10% or greater increase in share price expected over 12 months

Posted at 18/1/2022 14:25 by sifi1
Since Satvia Wellness changed its name and EPIC to Goodbody Health GDBY we can now post thoughts and comments here


Goodbody Health share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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