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VER Vernalis

6.17
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Vernalis LSE:VER London Ordinary Share GB00B3Y5L754 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 6.17 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 6.17 GBX

Vernalis (VER) Latest News

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Vernalis (VER) Discussions and Chat

Vernalis Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
18/10/201811:57VERNALIS - time to buy?2,092
24/10/201018:57VERNALIS - 500p by December 2010?465
15/9/200916:32Vernalis (VER): Charts and discussion thread38
15/9/200916:31VERNALIS *** UNDERVALUED***1
15/9/200915:38Vernalis - short this junk to 40p?23

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Vernalis (VER) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 11/7/2018 10:45 by bones698
Timbo expecting 3p a share just for the losses is stupid . Companies have a vast array of other shares they could but if they elwanted to use the tax breaks on losses . The fact is those are worthless so forget that for a start . Simple fact is this will be worth around the cash value that's left and little more as everything else is loss making pretty much . By the time they have sold the company the cash position will be far less than last announced so expect to get maybe 3 to 5p once this gets sorted . Anyone paying over that expecting a return is going to get burnt .
Once the bod have paid themselves hefty bonuses as they leave the company the cash position will be hit Aswell as the time taken and running costs which are ridiculous and always have been for a loss making company .

Anyone pinning their hopes on the tax losses bringing value clearly hasn't been around very long and doesn't know these are worthless . If they are so valuable then every company that goes bump with huge losses would get snapped up just for those . Get real
Posted at 03/7/2018 15:52 by greedfear
I know the history. I know the risk. I do expect to make a very nice return on this. If not, so be it. People scared of risks: don't go for it and listen to the "bashers". You'll sleep better.

I'm expecting 10p+ per share. VER's management has got some large shareholders looking over their shoulders. It's not all about quality of management now. II's wanting this over and done with and get at least something back.

Just my two cents. DYOR.
Posted at 21/6/2018 08:33 by cudmore
Nobby

Come back and thank me when the RNS drops regarding the takeover price......multiples of where we are this morning.....trust me!
Posted at 17/6/2018 17:25 by greedfear
Compound- thx. You “force” me to dig deeper. Because of that I’m convinced now that a takeover at 10p would be an absolute bargain for any buyer. Takeover price should exceed that. I strongly feel I should add to my position first thing tomorrow.
Posted at 16/6/2018 12:06 by greedfear
Getting more and more convinced Verona is going to take over VER with an all shares offer.
The good phase 2b results makes future milestone and royalty payments more probable.
Verona is looking for partners (CEO recently went to China). If they sublicense, VER is entitled to payments because of that too.
It's far more efficient for Verona to be freed from all the obligations to VER.


Also, if the offer is in shares, Verona's cash position will be increased with 26-27 million GBP. Money that's needed to finance the phase 3 trial(s). Current funds are sufficient to finance only half of the phase 3 trial.

If VER or Verona manages to sell the oncology part of the business at least 10 million GBP will be added to the cash position.

It's too much of a coincedence just recently (22-5-2018) Verona decided to request their shareholders for permission to issue 52,508,700 new Ordinary Shares (...)
Why now? Verona's cash position is 72.6 million GBP (31-3-2018). The costly Phase 3 trial will start in 2019, so it's not like they should be in need of money soon.
It could have waited. But they chose not to. Why? I can think of a reason.

I feel they're going to use these new shares to take over VER, to get rid of all the paperwork and obstacles and add 35 million+ to the cash position (money that could be well used for the clinical trials).
Posted at 15/6/2018 11:05 by greedfear
52 million x 1.5 GBP (share price Verona) = 78 million GBP
Ca. 525 million Vernalis shares, makes ca. 15p per Vernalis share.
Posted at 22/5/2018 14:39 by romeike
It's on the back of a position taken by a health focused fund followed up by a bit of blatant pumping (and now dumping).

With the right actions and a good new CEO the company should eventually be able to settle at about 8-12p. I have doubts about them finding a buyer for the whole business at a decent price.

Postings on here re: 45mil in the bank and max share price etc. are way off the mark and display ignorance about the company's recent past. The fact is that by the end of summer it ought to have circa 15mil left after wind down costs etc. from the failed US business are accounted for. In my view there are unfortunately still some potentially serious risks, including legal problems and additional costs and write downs.

The interesting part of the company, as was ever the case, is computational biology, but this is an expensive unit that generates very wide ranging revenues that make it swing from loss to gain and back to loss each year and is very difficult to put a value on.

More positively, the company has no debt, but the new CEO is likely to need to raise cash and cut headcount/costs in order to execute a turnaround strategy. Vernalis is also most likely be loss making and fully dependent on unreliable milestone payments for income for the foreseeable future.
Posted at 26/3/2018 06:57 by timbo003
Verona reported positive phase IIB results for RPL554 this morning.

With Vernalis due very significant milestone and royalty payments if and when RPL554 is approved, it further underpins the estimated sum of the parts valuation of VER which is considerably more than reflected in the current share price(see posts above)
Posted at 20/3/2018 14:36 by timbo003
I suspect by end of September this year, the share price will be significantly above 3p per share (3p corresponds to a market capitalisation of around £15m). Reasoning as follows: The old management will have departed; the US business will have gone; on a sum of the parts basis for the remaining business a market cap of £15m looks way too cheap. Some more detailed thoughts below:

The Vernalis cash pile was £44m at end of Jan 2018



Historic cash burn for year to June 2017 was £21m/year (see annual report below) and £17m for 7 months to Jan 31st (see link above)



Direct promotion of the US cough product (Tuzistra) ceased beginning of March and all US staff will go mid May, there are likely to be some significant closure costs (early lease and contract terminations etc), so cash burn between Jan 31st 2018 and September 2018 is difficult to estimate, but perhaps £30m (worst case) which would leave a £14M cash pile.

There is a chance (albeit small) that they could end up selling Tuzistra for a cash sum, or licence it out. They may also go for compensation from their development partner (Tris), for failing to fulfil their obligations on the other joint development projects.

Once the US business has gone, the remaining UK business will still have some valuable assets (see annual report for more details). One of the more valuable assets is their stake in RPL554 (which is currently being developed by Verona Pharma) where it is possible to make a reasonable guestimate at the value:

Assuming RPL554 is launched during 2020 or 2021 in the US, it will be more or less off patent, yet Vernalis will still recieve a £5m up front payment on first approval, 25% of any sub licence revenue and a 3% royalty of Verona’s sales revenue for 10 years post launch (in each market), this is despite the fact that the Vernalis composition of matter patent will expire in 2020 or thereabouts.



From the Verona Pharma Aim admission document


Vernalis Royalty Payments (from Aim admission document p67 - 68)






Even if you assume that Verona only ever launch RPL554 in the USA in nebulised format for Emergency Room use only and at home use after discharge (to minimise chances of re-admission), gross revenues could easily average £200m/year, implying royalties to Vernalis of £60M over a 10 year period. A more likely scenario is that once the nebulised format has become established, Verona would subsequently launch in dpi and mdi formats, which are much larger opportunities, they would also roll out the products to Europe and other developed markets.






There will be further value in the other out-licencing assets (see below):



The one with most potential value is probably CPI-444 which is out-licenced to Corvus (Clinical stage, Nasdaq quoted Biopharma, market cap circa $300m) for which Vernalis are due to receive development milestone payments and royalties on sales. Corvus are developing CPI-444 with Genentech (Roche) and as the lead drug in their development portfolio, it probably has a realistic chance of progressing further.


There is also continuing royalty income for Frovatriptan (circa £2-3m annually) and a small research division which is mainly funded by collaborators on a fee for service basis, which currently benefits from occasional milestone payments and could eventually benefit from product royalties, should any of the current 6 collaborations lead to marketed products.
Posted at 30/10/2017 12:06 by romeike
I recently reduced my holding here by over 60% as the opportunity arose to swap out the funds into Shire, with its share price severely down for no good reason it makes a lot of sense to do so - far more certainty of a recovery and profits at Shire than here. And CEO Flemming O is leagues ahead of this no hoper Ian Garland at Vernalis.

Looks very much like Vernalis strategy is hostage to its partner Tris, with no control over what looks like an increasingly chaotic situation. Can only hope Vernalis is applying pressure but months on and still no word of progress. Strategy making less and less sense with ongoing cash burn at $20m but revenues just a few million, how can this ever make sense without more products hitting the market in a reasonable time.
Vernalis share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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