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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Networks | LSE:MNW | London | Ordinary Share | CA5662191017 | COM SHS NPV |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 220.00 | 0.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | O | 0 | 220.00 | GBX |
March Networks (MNW) Share Charts1 Year March Networks Chart |
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1 Month March Networks Chart |
Intraday March Networks Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/6/2008 | 23:59 | MARCH NETWORKS - explosive growth from Digital CCTV | 1,087 |
| 05/1/2007 | 16:43 | mnw first day | 60 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
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| Top Posts |
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Posted at 07/6/2007 09:16 by nickcduk The results were pretty uninspiring to say the least. Have a look at VDI if your looking for a company in a similar market but which is growing 40%+ and about to break into profitability. Its forecast to do about 27m canadian dollars in turnover for the current year. That will be blown out of the water if they sign the 25 year contract to operate security at Toronto airport in the next few weeks. It has better asset backing than MNW as well. |
Posted at 07/6/2007 09:11 by milesy Been out of MNW for a while now but kept them on my watch list...will probably remove now given the outlook. |
Posted at 23/5/2007 21:00 by madasafishman good news multi million dollar big money in any ones booksstill cant bring myself to buy with this spread its only moved 5p up on the news i wonder what sort of news it will take to move this share a significant amount now so im even more cautious about getting involved there looks lots of upside for recovery buy tho |
Posted at 17/5/2007 14:04 by lordcoco I reckon MMs not really interested in making a market here because moves are dictated by action on the TSX. It could be that they are now being cautious, on more than one occasion I've sold on news prior to TSX open and prior to a major downward move.The best way if you want to trade inside the spread is probably to put an order in and hope you get filled. I had one in below 500, in the end only managed a few at 495 and 510. The heaviest volume recently on the TSX was after last results and after the announcement of the major retailer: Subsequent drift back down on lower volume. Not sure what to make of the major retailer announcement as it makes it look more and more like March are heading into the software and services space and away from selling hardware. Anyway, I was more interested in the director purchases and the continued wins by Bombardier that will hopefully include March and who should hopefully start to see the benefit of that alliance soon. |
Posted at 01/3/2007 09:54 by milesy LC - finally got out a while ago having thankfully top sliced when the share price was healthier. Think they'll come good again once the international expansion starts to contribute, whenever that is, but seems in limbo at present.Not sure if the statement re WM is saying they're no longer a customer, or just that for FY2008 MNW aren't factoring anything in due to the uncertainty. Perhaps that'll be clarified in the web call. Have kept watch as it's still a major growth market and MNW have good technology to address it...could prove to be a good LTBH at current levels and Sir Tel is a canny operator. |
Posted at 01/3/2007 08:14 by lordcoco At first glance, results look to be ahead of expectations both in revs and eps. Confused beacause they are stating 3 month eps ahead of their full year revised expectations - perhaps this is indicative of negative earnings to come once or now that Walmart contracts have been fully deployed and terminated."The Company is planning to generate sufficient revenue in fiscal 2008 to achieve breakeven earnings before income taxes at the current operating expense level without any revenue contribution from its current largest customer." I think this backs this up. Little else to go on. I expect they'll be upbeat during the cc, again. They really need to start coming up with figures from overseas rather than their continual hints that they are "really excited" about this and that. Was amazed to see they had no presence at this years IIPSEC despite all their talk about europe and the UK, biggest international show of IP in security (attended by virtually everyone) and they fail to turn up???? I have a very small amount (750) which are firmly bottom drawered out of interest to see if they can turn the ship around. Been quite a ride with MNW and, if nothing else, I've learned a few valuable lessons. Anyone still holding? |
Posted at 25/5/2006 22:52 by lordcoco Good find milesy. Although not a huge contract in itself, I can't see they would go through a fairly comprehensive testing sytem for only 80 odd busses. They look to be in the process of upgrading their whole fleet from diesel to lpg, I'm sure, if positive results come from this inital run, March will be in the new buses. Intrestingly the whole of LA MTA has several thousand buses, 2500 with cameras. I don't know how may operate with a dvr system but would guess not that many, and even less with a system and software of a similar calibre to March's. One county, in one state, in one country - it's a big market!The thing with March's system (and I suppose the competition's), is that it offers the customer a whole lot more than just simple taped images and therefore one would imagine that the move to universal deployment of dvr type sytems and their respective software is only a matter of when, not if, also to upgrade existing cctv would not afaiaa involve replacing the cameras, just the recorders and software which could prove very attractive if the benefits appear that great. So all in all I think *another* win from a major transit authority after what seems a fairly thorough trial process with competitors equipment looks very good for March. Not that this has been reflected in the reaction on the TSX though. Over the weeks March seems to have moved into the "weirdy beardy" sector of stocks. Something appears to be not quite right, a succession of analyst upgrades (avg. around $36-40 target), some fairly significant contract wins, a current pe, depending on how you look at it (cash vs. gaap), that is either well below or in line with competion, an optimistic day in the states and still the share price drops. ?? (I wont even start on the continuing mystery large trades that periodically appear over here with no noticable effect on the price.) Someone on the bullboards thread posted some figures for short positions in the stock, apparently there is a huge number, some 300k+ and taken relatively recently (it might just be all loaned data and the net balance of long/shorts is neutral, I don't know). I seriously doubt this is a whole heap of punting PIs who feel, regardless of the analysts predictions and the beating the share price has taken recently, that there is more downside to come based on their own fundamental analysis. If someone is shorting the stock, who is it and more importantly why? It is possible that someone has wind that March has had a really poor last quarter and that they wont even make their lower forecast for the year, though I'd imagine that those that cover the stock would have picked up on that too and would not have recently been sticking their necks out with targets 50% and above the current share price The issue with the tax has always struck me as a bit odd as it can't have been any great secret or revelation that at some point March would have to pay taxes and even though they will acount for them nxt qrt, they still wont pay for a few yars to come - this imo has also been more than accounted for in the recent drop in share price Rumours regarding WalMart have been pretty much quashed. Secondary offering unlikely given large cash balance. The only thing I can think of is that someone knows that Matthews will want out as soon as the lock-up expires and is set to place at a large discount. This also doesn't seem that likely as Matthews, being a billionaire, is probably unlikely to be pushed into a position where his exit had been manipulated to his disadvantage, and what if finals and outlook come in rosey? Maybe it's just the consensus view that March's current multiple is too high and now is not the time to be invested in such stocks. Roll on the 7th, put us out of our misery. Edit - re short history, the figure is 160k not the 300k I posted. There has been some discussion on the other thread regarding market manipulation and suggestions of MMs on TSX being short of the stock, no idea myself but it may explain, what I believe at any rate to be the odd anomaly in the share price movement |
Posted at 11/5/2006 09:30 by lordcoco Had another go (but left out the tables as cannot tabulate):10, 2006 All values in C$ unless otherwise noted.(TSX: MN; AIM: MNW) Outperform Above Average Risk Sharp Decline Unwarranted; Upgrading To Outperform Event MN shares have continued to decline in recent weeks, with no new fundamental reason evident. We view current risk/reward as compelling, and upgrade our rating on MN to Outperform. Investment Opinion 45% Decline From Recent Highs; No Sufficient Fundamental Explanation Evident: MN shares have plummeted roughly 45% since just before FQ3 results, with no identifiable changes in the fundamentals or outlook for the company. There are a number of "partial explanations" for the decline (itemized below), but nowhere can we find a lost contract, product issue, imminent new competitive threats, financial shortfall, etc. Clearly there are risks out there for MN, but we do not see major new threats that would justify such a move. Risk/Reward Now Compelling: At current levels, MN trades at 21.8x our C2007E GAAP EPS estimate, now in-line with peer companies. On this we note several points: MN has much a much higher growth rate than peers almost 2x earnings growth and 3x revenue growth(see table below). 1-2 months ago, MN traded at a 5-7 P/E multiple premium, which we viewed as justifiable given MN's higher growth outlook. MN will pay no taxes for several years, though they are applied at a 36% rate in the GAAP EPS calculation a higher rate than peers (see discussion and exhibit 3 below). On an untaxed basis, MN now trades at roughly 14.2x our C2007E Adj. EPS of $1.63. We note that this is now below the IPO valuation level (which at the time was roughly 16x forward year untaxed EPS). Netting out cash (mostly built through the IPO) and the cash benefit of the tax shields (which seems fair if we are to look at taxed EPS), then MN trades at approximately 15x 2007E GAAP EPS. FQ4 Results To Be Reported on June 7th: We expect a solid quarter, with revenue of $21.6 million yielding EPS of $0.27. We will publish a full preview closer to the release. Valuation: Our target remains $40.00, reflecting roughly 25x C2007E cash EPS of $1.63. This multiple is in line with our expected growth rate for MN over the next 3-5 years. Viewed another way, the target reflects roughly 30x C2007E GAAP EPS, plus cash (including the effect of the tax shield). We now rate MN Outperform, AAR with a $40.00 target.Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwisestated). RBC Capital Markets March Networks Shares Were Arguably Overbought A Quarter Ago, But 40%+ Selloff Unwarranted, In Our View At their peak just before FQ3 results (late February, 2006), MN shares traded as high as $42. At that time the shares appeared fully valued i.e., fully reflecting a premium valuation for very strong execution and market outlook. Since then, the shares have plummeted roughly 45%, with no identifiable changes in the fundamentals or outlook for the company. There are a number of "partial explanations" for the decline (itemized below), but nowhere can we find a lost contract, product issue, imminent new competitive threats, financial shortfall, etc. Clearly there are risks out there for MN, but we do not see major new threats that would justify such a move. Accordingly, we are upgrading the shares to Outperform, Above Average Risk from Sector Perform, Above Average Risk. Looking for Explanations There are a number of items frequently discussed to explain the move. In our view, many of these are 'after thefact'explanations FQ4 (ended April), though we can never find a source, or even a reasonable discussion as to why this may be the case. We are comfortable with and reiterate our FQ4 forecast (revenue of $21.6 million yielding EPS of $0.27). We note several points: o We are now 10 days past quarter-end with no pre-announcement. While this does not necessarily preclude one, we note that the company's only previous pre-announcement (to the upside) came on November 3, 2005 3 days after the quarter end. o Our top-line forecast has relatively modest assumptions, in our view: We look for "Large Customer" revenue to rebound from $7.5 million in FQ3 to approximately $9 million this quarter. This compares to $9.7 million in FQ2, with the FQ3 dropoff related to a seasonal slowdown in deployments (the customer is a retailer). All other revenue is flat in our forecast quite a conservative stance, in our view. o FQ4 expenses may be higher: March intends to aggressively hire additional salespeople, so it is possible that we are light on our Opex forecast. If so, we would expect a modest ($0.01-0.03 per share) impact to earnings, which is more than adequately reflected in the share price, in our view. May 10, 2006 2 RBC Capital Markets March Networks F2007 guidance may be more of an issue: Following FQ4 results wee expect March to issue F2007 annual guidance (as it did last year). We again expect management to be quite conservative in its forecast, including primarily revenue to be derived from current customer rollouts or firm contracts. Last year, we saw numbers far in excess of initial guidance, which was followed using the same principals. We expect revenue guidance to be on the order of 30% growth. We currently forecast 34% growth with relatively flat margins (EBT down 40 bps to 23%), and are comfortable with this given the firm nature of the revenue guidance. We may see some investor concern should official revenue guidance fall modestly short of consensus expectations, but we would be comfortable with revenue growth guidance in the 30% range. Profit-taking: In the recent decline we sometimes forget that MN shares are still up just under 100% from their $12 IPO price a year ago (though down from their one-time 240% gain). With uncertainty as to why the shares have been in decline, we expect some investors have opted to "take some off the table until they figure it out" a direct quote from one former holder. In a sense, this becomes self-fulfilling, though does not offer a better explanation. Current Valuation Parameters At current levels, MN trades at 21.8x our C2007E GAAP EPS estimate, now in-line with peer companies. On this we note several points: MN has much a much higher growth rate than peers almost 2x earnings growth and 3x revenue growth. 1-2 months ago, MN traded at a 5-7 P/E multiple premium, which we viewed as justifiable given MN's higher growth outlook. MN will pay no taxes for several years, though they are applied at a 36% rate in the GAAP EPS calculation a higher rate than peers. On an untaxed basis, MN now trades at roughly 14.2x our C2007E Adj. EPS of $1.63. We note that this is now below the IPO valuation level (which at the time was roughly 16x forward year untaxed EPS). Netting out cash (mostly built through the IPO) and the cash benefit of the tax shields (which seems fair if we are to look at taxed EPS), then MN trades at approximately 15x 2007E GAAP EPS. RBC Capital Markets March Networks RBC Capital Markets estimates Given a 50%+ EPS growth rate for MN over 2004-2007 (74% pre-tax growth), we view current multiples as very compelling. On a sustainable basis over the next 3-4 years, we anticipate EPS growth on the order of 30%+. Taxes skew the valuation and peer comparison: March's tax situation complicates the measurements somewhat, and unfairly depicts EPS trends as we move from F2006 to F2007. As discussed at the end of Q3/06, March will begin accounting for Income Tax at a 36% tax rate beginning in Q1/07, though previous losses, etc. will shield the company from paying cash taxes for several years. On a cash basis, we expect MN to generate EPS of approx. $1.60 in C2007, implying a P/E multiple of 14.2x on Cash EPS. Further complicating the comparison, NICE and Verint have expected tax rates of 19.5% and 25% respectively for F2007, well below MN's accounting levels. RBC Capital Markets estimates Note this table assumes constant share counts for all companies, unlike our calculation above (14.2x for MN) which assumes growth in share count through C2007. Notably, on an untaxed basis MN trades at a discount to the peer group, despite higher projected growth rates. Looking for Upside Potential New Enterprise Deals: The first and most obvious driver of the share price will be large contract announcements. We have seen several moderate deals in recent months, with Union Pacific being the last "large" deal. Watching the news releases is not a reliable measure of contract wins, however, with many customers not permitting MN to publicize their security initiatives. New deals are difficult to forecast, though we expect a relatively steady flow (including in the transportation vertical) in F2007. Potential Acquisition: An acquisition by MN would likely be viewed positively by the market. Assuming MN stays within their specified parameters for such a deal complementary software offerings, customer base in a defined vertical (likely retail), and accretive to earnings, then this should boost the growth outlook and alleviate some longer-term concerns as the company diversifies beyond hardware. Stronger Revenue Growth: In our view, the real upside driver will be higher levels of revenue growth, along with sustained or improved operating margins. Currently, MN is operating with very strong gross margins and controlled OpEx, yielding Operating Margins around 22%. It will be difficult to improve margins beyond current levels, in our view. In fact, we could see margins decline modestly in coming quarters/years as the sales force grows more aggressively (with expenses likely leading their contribution). So earnings growth over the next several years will primarily be driven by revenue growth, in our view. Revenue Growth Sensitivities: We are forecasting 34% revenue growth in F2007. Each 2% increment in revenue growth adds $0.03 to EPS. This implies the following range of P/E multiples based on sensitivity to revenue growth: May 10, 2006 4 RBC Capital Markets March Networks RBC Capital Markets estimates Valuation and Recommendation With the recent share price weakness and no evident change in fundamental outlook, we believe the risk/reward profile of MN is compelling and upgrade the shares to Outperform, Above Average Risk. We remain firm believers in the market opportunity facing March over the next several years, and in their product strategy and execution ability to capitalize on that. Valuation has been our primary concern in recent months, but we believe the declining share price has mitigated the risks that are out there. MN now trades at similar multiples to the peer group, yet has a higher projected growth rate and faces many of the same risks. Our price target remains at $40.00, reflecting roughly 25x C2007E Cash EPS of $1.63. This multiple is in line with our expected growth rate for MN over the next 3-5 years. Viewed another way, our price target reflects roughly 30x C2007E GAAP EPS, plus Cash (including the effect of the tax shield). We upgrade our recommendation on MN to Outperform, Above Average Risk (from Sector Perform) with a price target of $40.00. Price Target Impediments Our financial forecasts are predicated on the continued deployment of March's solutions at existing customers, and continued wins with new customers to replenish the backlog. Severe pricing pressure, or major technological advances by competitors would threaten these assumptions and therefore impede achievement of our price target. Company Description March Networks is a leading provider of IP-based digital video surveillance solutions to the banking, retail and transportation sectors. March introduced its networked Digital Video Recorder (DVR) product in 2002, and since then has grown its installed base to over 21,500 DVRs worldwide. The company has an impressive list of clientele including U.S. Bancorp, Wachovia Corp., DHL International, Cadillac Fairview, Singapore Mass Rapid Transit, and the Royal Bank of Canada. |
Posted at 08/5/2006 21:50 by lordcoco I have been watching the decimation of March's share price with a mixture of shock and awe!I've been expecting a bottoming out for some time now and have bought back the shares I sold plus a few more over the last week or so. :( Aplogies to Umaluka - should have kept my trap shut. The share price now fully takes into account and then some (as far as I can make out) the tax situation which has seemingly spooked a lot of investors, if that equates to knocking off some 36% odd from March's bottom line and suggests a real flattening of growth. Fearing some other nasty I had a chat with investor relations in Ottowa earlier this evening. They/he/Anil Dilawri seemed pretty frustrated with the hammering that March is getting - there is no material news coming from the company, it appears their hands are tied until results early June before they can dispel any fears (or confirm them as the case may be). He appeared to be eager for that date's arrival though fwiw. Re the share price movement, Mr Dilwari commented on the fact that it had "had a good run" last year, as far as they could make out no institutional investors were offloading and the sales appeared those of smaller (PIs?) investors driving the price down. There appears to be no concerns with their major customer (Wal-Mart), they are happy with March and the deployment continues apace. Stock options/lock-up - TM cannot sell until after results and then, obviously, they would be placed rather than dumped on the market. There was no outright denial that this may happen. My observation - TM had made comment about a merger between March and Mitel maybe this was badly recieved by March and now TM wants out, who knows? GAAP/tax matters - my theory, once again, is blown out of the water - it is a requirement of March due to Canadian tax regulations to start booking taxes in 07, not a decision by them, no effect on cash balance so not a means to strengthen the balance sheet prior to an acquisition as I had thought. I'll leave it there as I honestly still don't really understand the implications beside knocking EPS forecasts for six. They are continuing to "focus on sales and growing the business" and from the intonation I suspect they are doing just that. Pleased with the way things are going in the UK, see significant prospects here, expect to ramp up sales later in the year... Not much to report beyond what's already been reported really. I think I'll hold off buying any more until results now and then if, as I suspect, there is plenty of scope for March to take advantage of the still growing market I'll probably load up. Pleasant evening all. |
Posted at 08/3/2006 18:14 by umalukka i sold my holding of mnw today at £16.Looking at what analysts are saying about mnw price target i am tempted to reinvest in mnw.would like to know is there any more mnw out there in the market? I dont do much research as i am a full time working woman.I quite often pick up tips from advfn BB. Last one mnw i picked up from rogerl on BB here. Thanks. |
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