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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choicesuk | LSE:CHUK | London | Ordinary Share | GB0030842495 | ORD 5P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.50 | 0.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | O | 0 | 0.50 | GBX |
Choicesuk (CHUK) Share Charts1 Year Choicesuk Chart |
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1 Month Choicesuk Chart |
Intraday Choicesuk Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/4/2009 | 10:34 | CHUK to hit 150p in 12 mths | 574 |
| 01/5/2007 | 18:14 | CHUK 5p target in 6 months | 27 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
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| Top Posts |
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Posted at 21/8/2007 09:27 by cyberpost Richard Ratner, retail analyst at Seymour Pierce, said he wasn't totallysurprised by ChoicesUK's demise although he had thought the dismal summer weather would have assisted the business. "We wrote on one occasion that ChoicesUK's mnemonic (CHUK) gave a good indication of what we would do with the shares, we had rated it as a 'sell' but now alas it is too late," he said. |
Posted at 18/4/2007 10:10 by bletherer You always have to pay a premium for a large trade, so it does not mean that the share price has to go to 19. It is however a significant overhang of stock and since CHUK is tightly held that is liable to have a negative impact. ADVFN users have some "privileged information" in this regard since the trade has not shown up on the official list yet. |
Posted at 18/4/2007 09:24 by masurenguy Genuinely sorry to see this profit warning so soon after the recent dialogue here. I'm afraid that it does not look good and the recent GCI 'Avoid' advice on April 7th proved to be somewhat prescient.There are a few questions concerning management that come to the fore here. 1. The Interim Statement, issued on April 3rd, stated that "ChoicesUK is well placed to complete its recovery plan......reduced costs and established margins should result in positive cashflow for the final 24 weeks of the financial period". Yet just 2 weeks later a profit warning is issued stating that the company "now expects that the financial performance for the current period will be substantially below market expectations". They are basing this on just 4 weeks sales up until April 7th ! This is just 4 days after the Interims were released and I would be incredulous if management had absolutely no idea of trading performance over that 4 week period just 4 days prior to its conclusion ! 2. I find it incredible that 4 weeks trading is suddenly going to have such a major impact over a complete 24 week period. Yes I know it included Easter and that the weather was unseasonally good for at least half of that time but it is not as critical as the Christmas period. Not disputing that it is an important period but one has to really question whether it is being used to explain some other deeper rooted difficulties ! 3. Why did Michael de Kare-Silver resign so abruptly two days ago after just 3 months as an NXD ? There was a comment in the interims that "we will benefit from his considerable experience in internet trading and electronic commerce" and yet 2 weeks later he has suddenly gone and 2 days after that there is a profit warning. Obviously we don't know all the reasons for his brief tenure but the impression created by the timing of his departure can hardly be viewed as positive ! 4. I don't think that there is any reason to question the honesty of the new Chairman either at CHUK or previously at Homebuy. However I think that there were valid reasons to question his credibility as a result of his history at Homebuy and therefore to question the Boards judgement on his subsequent appointment here. He has only just taken over so cannot be tainted by the profit warning only 2 weeks following his appointment but one has to ask whether the general Board credibility issue, that now inevitably follows from this sudden profit warning, will be mitigated in any way by his presence at the helm even, if he is only (as some have maintained) just a figurehead ! With Retail business declining, Local business flat and Direct expanding into a very competitive marketplace, the forward picture was already fraught with potential challenges. Management have now really shot themselves in the foot and the ensuining impact on their credibility could be a real handicap on the share price for some time to come in my opinion. I think shareholders deserve much greater transparency here and the further announcement "after assessing its strategic and financial options" should be issued as soon as possible. The shares are down 36% after the first hour this morning. Even at this price I personally would not be tempted to buy in since there are far too many negatives to make this an attractive recovery play and management do not exactly inspire me with confidence. My view does not constitute advice to anyone to either buy or sell since everyone should do their own research and make their own decisions. I hope that I'm wrong and that JTC & GT recover a good chunk of their current shortfall but this one is now finally off my watchlist ! |
Posted at 08/4/2007 11:21 by masurenguy You're welcome. Obviously Gyllenhammar sees future value potetial here too. However the share price could remain under pressure and continue to move lower as a result of further negative market sentiment emanating from the news that Stegrego highlighted in post #398 above. From The Telegraph:Video rental chain in liquidation By Harry Wallop Last Updated: 08/04/2007 The meltdown in the video rental market has claimed its biggest victim yet, with the country's third-largest chain of stores crashing into liquidation. Apollo Video Film Hire, which ran a chain of over 100 shops, has been wound up by its administrators David Rubin & Partners after they were unable to sell the stores. David Rubin said: "The only way video shops can survive is if they are in specialised locations. These were mostly tertiary sites." The collapse of Apollo has emerged in the same week as its larger rival Choices UK unveiled plummeting rates of video and DVD rentals. Over the past two years, piracy, internet downloading and rampant price deflation of DVDs has all but destroyed the market for hiring films from high street shops. Earlier this year Virgin Megastores said that its DVD sales outstripped CD sales for the first time. Supermarkets have added to the woes by importing DVDs from Jersey and selling them for as little as £3.93. Consumers who do want to hire films now have a range of internet providers from Tesco.com to Lovefilm.com. This won't make it easier for CHUK to dispose of unprofitable retail shops either ! |
Posted at 07/4/2007 17:54 by goonertone MasurenguyCheers for the reply. PG seems to have a love/hate relationship with small investors depending on what company they meet him in. By the very nature of the type of companys he invests in there are going to be big losers but also the chances for big winners. I've got no grouch with him and he has been buying stales in CHUK since early 2006. It's a positive currently for me as there's no reason that I can see currently to have changed his view so it is a large lump of stock out of the marketplace. I haven't seen the GCI article but I think the story of supermarkets, online and more importantly downloading has been written into the current share price (Though thats only my view obviously) This certainly isn't for the fainthearted but if you've got more than a 6 - 12 month timeframe in mind for your investment then the upside if the turn round is acheived is much greater than the downside if it isn't fully succesful. All obviously my opinion and my opinion alone. GT |
Posted at 06/4/2007 13:19 by michaelmouse Masurenguy - "It seems michaelmouse doesn't understand the difference between a voluntary winding up, with a surplus distribution to members, compared with an involuntary winding up with unpaid creditors, which is usually as a result of some form of insolvency."Chapelthorpe made an interim loss of about £7.5m followed by an equally horrendous trading statement. Indeed the company's results and prospects are so poor it makes it look as if business is booming at CHUK by comparison. That said CPL have net current assets equivalent to 6.8p and net assets of 12.8p (although £4m is goodwill and I'm not sure of the mix with the £30m of fixed assets in property, plant and equipment). As far as I can see the share price dipped to about 2.5p recently and has since spiked up. Although of course you will have missed the low since you were just watching, apparently, despite starting the thread. Now if you had done your research properly you may have snapped a few up at 2.5p given the balance sheet. Worth a quick punt of anybody's money. Your Chairman may find himself as a voluntary wind up merchant (in the true sense of the word) again whether he likes it or not. Indeed, perhaps that's why they brought him in in the first place. I was hoping you could have worked that one out for yourself. Some advice. If you start a thread at least keep up to date with the news items. Finally, name calling and banning me from your thread is an act of desperation when you have been exposed for what you are. You remind me of the Knight in "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". However, I've already chopped your arms and legs off and now I must move on in my quest. No doubt you will still be shouting after me. Bye Bye. Michael. |
Posted at 04/4/2007 08:55 by jtcod Agree with your post bar the last para GT.Think you probably meant 52 week ended 28th July '2007' btw? I don't think the market cap is quite as absurd at the moment as perhaps you do. I try to work on 'How would a predator value it?' and because it includes £11.5m of debt in the price at the turn, 45.5p per share really values CHUK at £20m (110p per share including debt at the turn). i.e. if someone paid 100p, net of debt we would get about 42p per share. I would agree that debt should reduce very quickly and is probably down to £10m already but the price will reflect value only as debt reduces. If you're cashflow positive, I look at it as 'buying share price growth'. As long as the company have good funding arrangements in place for the duration, it's an easy way to drive the price. JT |
Posted at 03/4/2007 14:15 by jtcod Interims Comment:Debt: I had expected a drop of maybe £1-2m but debt has increased again and whilst at the same time the balance sheet assets have fallen further. I make it about £11.5m debt at the turn, though I would expect debt levels of nearer £10m now, (following the PS3 launch late March.) If I am right we would have gearing of around 75 % about now. Which I consider risky and in need of reduction below 50 % as soon as can be achieved. Masurenguy: Michael Riding is on board because of his background, high level contacts and reputation with LloydsTSB Plc. This (hopefully) should give us added protection. In times of high debt levels, the business plan may be sound but it is only as sound as the relationship with their bankers. Right now that's very important imo. I believe that Homebuy had triple digit gearing and an awful balance sheet (Significant intangibles I think). If I am wrong I apologize but it was a couple of years ago when I last looked at them. If I am right, it wouldn't have allowed their bankers very much leeway. CHUK has a better balance sheet I believe, though it's not great. I share your bewilderment as to why Mr Riding would have bought shares at such a time though. Cash Flow: Negative for H1 but pleased to hear it is now positive. Given the right scenario, cashflow can be very good in this type of business. For instance, positive cashflow from operating activities averaged £9.4m pa over the 4 year period 2002-2005. I think it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that debt could be reduced to sub £6m by this time next year. Reduction of Overheads: This was good news also. Improved from £3m pa to £6.9m pa in just 7 months. Teather & Greewood the in house broker had £3m profit net of interest forecast for next year, prior to this interim announcement. That equated to EPS of 11.7p. I would assume they had some knowledge of additional overhead reductions but I doubt this incorporated the full £6.9m savings. I do not have their calculations but I would expect interest costs of £750,000 next year would have been allowed for. Margins: Good news again. "Stabilised margins" Sales Mix: 40 % games. In a games market that has just seen 2 of the 3 major players launch next-gen machines, this is good progress and an important move imo. The PS3 launch has now been heralded as a success in the worlds 3 main consumer continents, which bodes well for their 'BlueRay' format and it's future sales curve. I am impressed also by the 6.5 % market share of the PS3 launch. Not bad for a new player. Well done Choices. Value: Right now, until the debt starts falling back below £7m I'd say that CHUK is worth about 63p. Until we know what the extra £3.4m overhead reduction can deliver, I am discounting it completely and going with the T&G £3m+ £0.75m interest add back. Calculation: 7/2008 Forward earnings assumption of £3.75m profit before interest, less 28 % tax x 8.5 £11.5m Debt = £11.45m divided by 18.1m shares = 63p Feb 2008 alternative assumption: Based upon increased profit forecast of £4.75m before interest for July 2008, reflecting increased overhead savings and debt reduction (assuming £7m debt as of Feb 2008) = 122p Obviously, tax levels will be pretty much zero for a while but I prefer to allow for full taxation in the valuation calcs. Final Thoughts: I think the management is doing all the right things in what continues to be a tough market. I also think 'cashflow from operating activities' should really kick in over the next 12 months due to the significant cost overhead reduction and low capex levels going forward. Offloading the other 29 marginal and unprofitable sites should accelerate cashflow further. The debt ratio has deteriorated due to the double wammy of higher debt and lower assets. Frankly, I do not blame anyone not prepared to invest in shares with an 85 % gearing and the prudent investor would not enter this stock prior seeing positive news on debt reduction imo. I'm already in and with a sizeable chunk of shares, so I don't have a lot of choice anyway unless I wished to trash the price. Debt servicing on the 'lower earnings assumption' (above) should be approx. 5x imo. I think that is manageable and so I'm happy to hold anyway. As ever all IMHO and DYOR JT |
Posted at 31/3/2007 16:24 by jtcod No one is claiming that the figures for CHUK will be blinding Stegrego. They won't be. The difference here is that Woolies are valued on a forward P/E of 24 and HMV are on a forward PE of 12.Teather & Greenwood the house broker is forecasting 11.7p for next year, a forward PE of 4. CHUK is a pure 'Value investment' imo. On top of that, the company hinted that they were considering offloading the Retail division (in the trading update earlier this year.) If so, that would leave the 2 'non-retail' divisions 'Choices Local' (The distribution business servicing 10,000 outlets) & Choices Direct' (The internet business). Both are growing strongly. CHUK would effectively become a distribution business overnight and I believe the market would have to re-rate the share. Obviously the sale may not happen but even if it doesn't, I feel they are still significantly undervalued by the market. Unlike Woolies and HMV, CHUK have already completed their rationalisation, saving overheads of £3.5m pa. All IMHO and DYOR JT |
Posted at 06/2/2007 18:50 by jtcod WoodcutterThis subject has been debated at length and yes I agree that music in particular is going through a sea change. However, CHUK are driving Games and DVD's mainly these days and should be entering the Blueray/HD-DVD market also I believe (which is better protected from rippers at the moment). The shops are a problem because of the sheer cost of running them. HMV are finding this out also, as you have pointed out. In the last RNS the management said: "Management is considering a strategic plan to ensure the Retail division, ChoicesUK stores, will not detract from the value and success of other Company activities." That sounds to me like they intend to offload the shops and concentrate on the primary business of ChoicesLocal. If they do, I estimate that the rest of the business is delivering normalised EPS of 13p 'and growing'. With debt levels dropping fairly rapidly (imo), the management will soon have the option to either: a) pay a 10 % dividend to drive the share price b) use cashflow to buy receivership opportunities as they did with andromeda or c) Buy the company off the market at a premium. The overall market will shrink and the capitalist system has a way of righting imbalances but profit is profit and the remaining core business will have a future. Those who are still standing in the end, will share the cake (however the future designs it). What is more, when the competition is reduced you will see margins harden, which will have a profound affect on CHUK's and others profit. You could say that those that are making a profit are squeezing the competition out of the market. CHUK will definately be one of those left standing imo and eventually a beneficiary of all this misery. All we are seeing is progress and the culling of the weak. Todays share price is a gift imo. As ever all IMHO and DYOR JT |
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