The Magnum Ice Cream Company (LSE:MICC) made its debut as an independent, publicly traded company following its separation from Unilever. J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with a “neutral” rating and set a €14 price target for December 2027. The stock finished at €12.84 on December 8, 2025.

J.P. Morgan analysts said the newly listed group offers a solid medium- to long-term earnings growth story, but they cautioned that transition-related cost pressures could weigh on results through 2025 and 2026 as the business adjusts to operating on a standalone basis.

The brokerage projects 6% compound annual EPS growth from 2025 to 2029, supported by a global ice cream category that historically expands by 3% to 4% annually.

Analysts expect Magnum Ice Cream Co. to stay within its own guidance of 3%–5% like-for-like sales growth and annual EBITDA margin expansion of 40–60 basis points through 2026–2030. However, short-term profitability is likely to dip as the company absorbs costs from technology transition agreements and consolidates its India operations.

J.P. Morgan forecasts EBITDA margins of 16.4% in 2025 (down 50 bps from 2024) and 16.8% in 2026 (up 40 bps). On revenue, analysts expect 5% like-for-like growth in 2025, slowing to 2.9% in 2026 due to weaker pricing power, tougher comparisons, and softer consumer spending. They also warned that broader use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could dampen category demand.

Shares currently trade at 11.3× estimated 2027 earnings and 7.4× 2027 EV/EBITDA, roughly in line with European food and beverage peers. J.P. Morgan said the valuation reflects a company still proving itself as a standalone listed operator, with exposure to a single product category and meaningful seasonal fluctuations.

The analysts highlighted significant longer-term margin potential if the company can close the gap with competitor Froneri by achieving €500 million in targeted gross supply-chain efficiencies. Froneri’s EBITDA margin rose from 12.7% in 2017 to 21.5% in 2024, while Magnum posted 16.9% in 2024.

J.P. Morgan’s €14 December 2027 price target is based on a discounted cash flow model that assumes 1.5% terminal growth and a 10% WACC.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Some portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) tools and been reviewed for accuracy and quality by our editorial team.