• Gold attempts to recover from weekly lows near $3,360 in light Thursday trading.
• Renewed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar follows reports of potential US military action against Iran.
• Despite breaking below the key $3,377 support after the Fed’s hawkish pause, Gold’s RSI remains in bullish territory.

Gold prices are attracting fresh buying interest around the weekly low of $3,363 on Thursday, as intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East overshadow the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance.

Rebound in Progress: Will It Hold?

Risk sentiment took a hit during the Asian session following media reports suggesting the US is considering military strikes on Iran—possibly as soon as this weekend. President Joe Biden is reportedly weighing an attack on Iran’s heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.

This comes after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Wednesday that any US military intervention would bring “irreparable damage” to America and rejected any prospect of backing down.

These renewed tensions have revived demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. However, the US Dollar—also considered a safe-haven—is gaining momentum, limiting gold’s upside potential.

The dollar continues to strengthen, supported by the Fed’s recent policy update. The central bank held interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, in line with expectations, and maintained its forecast for two rate cuts in 2025. However, it scaled back projections for additional cuts in 2026 and 2027, while raising its inflation outlook and cutting growth estimates.

Markets interpreted this as a moderately hawkish stance, which weighed on gold—an asset that does not yield interest.

Key Technical Levels and Outlook

Following the Fed’s decision, gold dropped below the key $3,377 support level and closed beneath it on Wednesday. However, thin liquidity due to the Juneteenth holiday in the US could exaggerate price swings in the short term.

From a technical standpoint, gold retains a bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 mark, currently around 55. For bulls to regain control, gold needs to reclaim $3,377—a level that also represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the record April rally.

A sustained move above that level would open the door to $3,400, followed by resistance at $3,440. A breakout beyond that point could test the two-month high near $3,453.

On the downside, if the rebound fails, sellers may step in. Initial support lies at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $3,348, with stronger support at the 50-day SMA around $3,308.

Bottom Line

While geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices, the strength of the US Dollar and the Fed’s more hawkish outlook are key headwinds. Market focus will remain on developments in the Middle East, as further escalation could drive increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

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