Lastminute.com - time to fly?

For a long time lastminute.com was associated with the dotcom bubble and has been a favourite for shorters since then, especially of late, but it is time to reassess the outlook. Put history behind you and look afresh. Europe's top travel website has turned the corner. It generated enough cash last year to enable it to make over £100m of acquisitions. Underlying growth without the acquisitions is strong - the last three quarters organic annual growth were Q3/04 22.3%, Q4/04 27.9%,and Q1/05 30.4%. Strong traffic growth to the main website seems to be accelerating if anything at around 150,000 hits per day, driven no doubt in part to the very rapid growth in European broadband penetration.



.........TTV(£m).....GrProf.....PBT.....Cash
Q3/03.....150.........29.......-12........7
Q4/03.....222.........45.........4.......24
Q1/04.....147.........25.......-18......-37
Q2/04.....179.........31.......-21........8
Q3/04.....269.........46.......-17........4
Q4/04.....398.........72........15.......61
Q1/05.....264.........44.......-27......-52
Q2/05.....248.........39.......-19.......18

The first quarter loss was larger than last year but the company has expanded significantly and it's weakest quarter should be more than offset by higher profits later in the year. As costs are taken out from acquisitions and turnover increases sharply the bottom line should benefit strongly.My analysis suggests profits and cashflow are set to increase in the order of £60m-£80m per year for the next couple of years. Consensus forecasts are weaker but forecasting profits. Takeover speculation is a bonus following high share turnover at Q1 results.

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/ft-com/multex-estimates/headlines.asp?region=&subtab=2&industry=&q=LMC&s2=UK&extelID=&ticker=UK%3ALMC&countrycode=UK&sid=170452&symb=LMC&selected=Lastminute%2ECom&company=NEW&isin=&sedol=&ftep=&FTSite=FTCOM&country=UK


The share price trebled in 2003 on hopes of a turnaround and then fell back on doubts about financing and acquisitions.Having fallen back to where it started, it has now broken its downtrend and I think it is well placed to treble again, or even more, from its current 114p if the corner has indeed been turned. There are lots of figures to filter in results so double check mine and DYOR. (Shame about the colour of the main website - ooohh.)



http://www.lastminute.com
http://www.travel4less.com
http://www.travelselect.com
http://www.medhotels.com
http://www.holidayhotels.com
http://www.onlinetravel.com
http://www.ifyouski.com
http://www.gotofrance.com
http://www.exhilaration.co.uk

http://www.holidayautos.co.uk

I sold out at 169p after bid announcement. Best of luck with a potential counterbid.